On September 4, a Lebanese delegation, led the Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Zeina Akar, visited Syria and met Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad, Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources Bassam Tohme, and Finance Minister Kinan Yaghi. Following bilateral talks, Secretary General of Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council Nasri Khoury said that Damascus agreed to transit Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to Lebanon, confirming that a joint team of experts from both sides will be responsible of all technicalities and procedures.
Tohme and his Lebanese counterpart Ghajar announced that a Lebanese-Syrian-Jordanian-Egyptian meeting is going to be held next week in Jordan, with the aim of arriving at a work plan and a schedule in order to put the agreements between the four countries into effect, and to deal with technical and financial matters. This includes forming a work team to inspect the sites and infrastructure in the four states. The team will be primarily responsible of the readiness of the Arab Gas Pipeline to carry gas from Egypt to Lebanon, as well as of the efficiency of the Syrian electricity grid, which is to take electricity to Lebanon.
Features of the American Project
Following are the main dimensions of the aforementioned project which was proposed by the USA:
1. Generating electricity in Jordan:
Electricity produced in Jordan will be exported to Syria, then eventually to Lebanon. Jordan will first be supplied with Egyptian gas so as to be able to produce additional electricity which will in turn be put on the grid that connects Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. It is noticeable that there are damages that need to be evaluated in the 400kilovolt network connecting the three countries.
2. Transporting gas to Lebanon:
The Arab Gas Pipeline will carry Egyptian gas to northern Lebanon through Jordan and Syria, in order to operate Lebanese power plants, which stopped working 11 years ago. It is noteworthy that there are four power plants in Lebanon, in Deir Ammar, Tyre, Baalbek and Zahrani, but the only one that was operated before, and which is ready, is that of Deir Ammar. It worked in 2009, but only for 6 months.
Syrian and Lebanese Ministers of Energy agreed that a joint committee should be formed as soon as possible to be entrusted with the task of inspecting the infrastructure of both countries. This shows that Damascus is keen on bringing into effect the regional projects it signed previously, especially the Arab Gas Pipeline project.
3. US validation of the project:
It was not possible to carry out such a project without US support. Lebanon could not have established economic relations with Syria without the American backing, due to the Caesar transactions imposed on Damascus by the USA.
a) Lebanon will be exempted from the transactions:
The USA will exempt Lebanon from the transactions imposed on it on account of the Caesar Act. The transactions would undoubtedly have made it impossible for Lebanon to get gas and electricity from Egypt and Jordan through Syria.
b) The project will receive financial support from international entities:
In addition to exempting Lebanon from transactions, USA will also help it get financial support from international entities, with which to fix infrastructure and pay for Egyptian gas. This is necessary since the deplorable condition of Lebanese economy makes it almost impossible for Lebanon to afford the gas which will be used in generating electricity.
c) The US will secure other forms of endorsement:
Washington will offer Lebanon humanitarian aid, too, which will probably include financial support of the Lebanese electricity sector. Late in August, the UN allocated 10 million dollars to buying fuel needed to keep Lebanese hospitals and water and sewage treatment plants working. The US is expected to take a similar step to protect Lebanese families from an imminent humanitarian crisis.
Regional and International Gains
Though the project apparently aims at helping Lebanon overcome its electricity problem, it will actually have important implications for the Middle East, as it will help the involved parties achieve certain gains, namely:
1. It will help US contain Iran’s penetration of Lebanon:
It is of major importance that it was the US ambassador who proposed the project on August 19. The USA's enthusiasm for the project is expected, since Washington is keen on limiting the Iranian presence in Lebanon. It is known that Tehran adopted plans to export combustibles to Lebanon, especially diesel, which is supposed to be used in generating electricity from non-state plants. With the approach of Lebanese parliamentary elections (which will be held in May 2022), Washington fears that Hezbollah may make use of this move to win favour with the electorate.
Besides, this project may pave the way for attempts to ending US sanctions against Syria. Furthermore, the project may result in US recognition of the Syrian government. If this happens, it can impair Iran’s economic hegemony in Syria, and open the door to more economic cooperation between Syria and the Arab world.
Washington already made an indirect move on the way of recognizing the Syrian government. By this, we mean the agreement with Russia regarding offering humanitarian aid to various countries, as Russia agreed to offer humanitarian aid to Damascus. On August 30, Russian Foreign Ministry said that aid was sent to North Syria through areas controlled by the Syrian regime. This may serve as a preliminary step to US recognition of the Syrian government.
2. It may serve to end Syria’s isolation:
Syria is welcoming the project because being involved in regional projects will gradually help put an end to its isolation. This particularly applies to projects in the area of energy, as Syria is facing many energy crises. In addition, the success of the project will have a positive effect on attempts to re-integrate Syria into the Arab world.
3. It can lead to more Egyptian-Jordanian economic integration:
Egypt and Jordan are seeking to increase the capacity of the power line between them to 2000 megawatt (the current capacity is 450 megawatt), so that other Arab countries can be connected later, such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Gulf countries. This will be beneficial to all these countries, because their on-peak hours are different.
This will lead to more cooperation between energy -exporting and energy-importing countries, which will, in turn, help enhance the energy sector in the Arab region.
In case the USA decides to lift sanctions on Damascus, Syria may be later integrated into the New Mashriq Plan which Iraq, Egypt and Jordan agreed to carry out. This will contribute to enhancing the Arab role in Syria.
4. Russian approval is expected:
Moscow is expected to approve of the intermediary role that Syria is supposed to play in providing Lebanon with electricity, for the following reasons:
a) The project may serve to relieve the international siege of Syria:
It will probably guarantee the Syrian energy sector more freedom, as it will require buying equipment and spare parts for the Syrian power plants supposed to provide Lebanon with electricity, so as to achieve sustainability.
b) It may help solve the problem of financing for Syria:
Asked about the possibility of buying electricity from Russia, former Syrian Minister of Electricity Mohammed Zuhair Kharboutli said in June 2019 that the main obstacle to Syrian-Russian cooperation in the area of electricity is the need for money. This problem could be solved now, as reconstruction efforts can secure financial support for Syria, let alone humanitarian aid to Syria and Lebanon from international entities.
c) It can provide opportunities for Russian companies:
Russian companies will probably take part in reconstructing the infrastructure needed for transporting gas and electricity. This could enhance Russian presence in the Arab Mashriq.
Finally, it must be noted that the American green light given to Lebanon so that it can enhance its electricity sector through Syria can help improve relations between countries of the Arab Mashriq on the one hand and between those countries and major international forces on the other hands, notably USA and Russia, provided that infrastructure problems are dealt with. In addition, US approval will pave the way for integrating Damascus in Arab economic projects, which can limit Iranian hegemony in Syria and Lebanon.
