Many countries recently witnessed unprecedented waves of massive fires that swept thousands of hectares of forests, and extended from Siberia to Bolivia and the state of California in the US, in addition to Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco in North Africa, and Lebanon, Turkey, Greece and Italy in the Eastern Mediterranean region. These fires led to heavy material and human losses, because of their expansion and resurgence for long periods of time in some of these countries. 

Although the relevant international organizations link these fires with the devastating impact of climate change on the planet, some countries have adopted a ‘conspiracy theories’ in their interpretation of the outbreak of these fires.

The UN Interpretation 

The UN attributes the scientific causes of fires to rising temperatures and droughts at the global level, as stated in the report published by IPCC on August 9, 2021, under the title: “Global warming 'unequivocally' human driven, at unprecedented rate". The report, which was prepared by 234 scientists from 66 countries, showed that human influence has warmed the climate at an unprecedented rate, as temperatures during the last decade (2011-2020) exceeded those that spanned over centuries. The report warned of an increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius in the global temperature over the next 20 years. 

Last June, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that the world may reach this increase in just 5 years, given that, according to some estimates, an increase in global temperature of only one degree Celsius could lead to a 6-fold increase in the areas burned in forests.

Repetitive Politicization

The estimates of international organizations regarding the impact of climate change and global warming were not ample reason for the countries of the region to explain the outbreak of these massive and successive surges of fires over the past weeks. Some of them adopted the so-called ‘conspiracy theories’, blaming other entities of igniting these fires, such as:

1- Associating the fires to ‘terrorist organizations’ in Turkey: 

In early August, in a public speech to the citizens of one of the provinces affected by the fires, Turkish President Erdogan announced the initiation of investigations regarding the link between terrorism and forest fires in Turkey. On August 11, Erdogan said in a television interview that Turkish intelligence has learned of the presence of some arsonists who are associated with some terrorist organizations, as was the case in the Hatay forest fires in 2020. 

2- A reference to some ‘criminal hands’ in the Algerian fires: 

On August 10, Ayman bin Abdel Rahman, the Algerian Prime Minister, accused what he called ‘criminal hands’ of causing the fires in his country, adding that although natural conditions help the spread of fires, some criminals are also involved. He mentioned that preliminary investigations prove that the places where these fires started were carefully chosen so as to make rescue endeavors quite difficult.

3- Holding ‘unidentified parties’ responsible for the Tunisian fires: 

Tunisian President Kais Saied accused unidentified parties of setting fires to the highlands and forests of Northern and Central Tunisia, saying that the armed forces will deal with them. Tunisian Civil Protection Spokesman, Moez Triaa, said in a press statement on August 13 that investigations to detect the causes of these fires are still ongoing, pointing out that the fires being premeditated cannot be ruled out, given the timing of their outbreak, which was mostly late at night, as well as the areas where they erupted and the convergence of their occurrence.

4-    Accusing entities of instigating the fires in Lebanon: 

The forests of Akkar in Lebanon, particularly the forests of Qobayat, Anadaq and Akrom, suffered massive loss as a result of the huge fires that broke out in 5 different places. On July 28, Omar Saud, Mayor of Anadaq, mentioned that “this was arson, and that there were parties that set fire to more than one place, while we were working to put them out”, without specifying the identity of the perpetrators. He demanded immediate investigations into this matter.

Various Considerations

Some countries in the region adopted the so-called conspiracy theoies holding other parties responsible for the outbreak of fires, or at least for their continuation and widespread, in light of some considerations, including the following:

1- Covering up the failure to manage the fires crisis: 

Turkish President Erdogan, faced significant internal resentment over his failure to manage the country's fire crisis. Accusations were leveled against him that his claims of these actions being arson aim to conceal his government's failure to perform its duties. 

According to social media comments, the failure of the Turkish regime in managing the fire crisis focused on 3 main directions, namely:

a.   Focusing on infrastructure projects in Istanbul and Ankara, and neglecting other districts that lost vast green areas after the fires that the local authorities failed to control. 

b.  The lack of pre-readiness of the Turkish government to manage such crises, and the absence of the necessary capacities, particularly with respect to firefighting aircraft, despite the fact that forests constitute a third of the country’s area. This forced Turkey to rely on the assistance of the EU countries, Russia and Iran in extinguishing fires.

c.  After Erdogan attributed the main reason behind the lack of firefighting aircraft to the inability of the Turkish Aeronautical Association to modernize its fleet and techniques, he later said in a television interview, "the rumors that there are no firefighting helicopters are not true... Planes are scattered in several Turkish cities, but some people do not see that”. The scene of the Turkish president throwing tea bags to the residents as he was touring one of the most affected areas heightened public resentment over his management of the crisis.

2- Facing internal criticism from opposition groups: 

This appeared in Turkey as well, where the two largest opposition parties, the Republican People's Party and the Democratic People's Party, leveled severe accusations against the Turkish regime regarding its management of the fire crisis. These accusations were based on strong justifications, namely the inability of the ruling regime to protect the Turkish people from the fires. However, they also aimed to negatively impact public support for the current regime, which is engaging in presidential and legislative elections within two years. 

Similarly, the Algerian government faced sharp criticism from the opposition parties in the country, because of the concerned authorities’ failure to adopt any proactive measures, in addition to the failure to draw lessons from the fires that swept Algeria in previous years. Perhaps this explains President Tebboune’s keenness to announce, on August 12, the arrest of 22 suspects in the forest fires, and his confirmation once again that ‘criminal hands’ are behind these fires, in an attempt to ease the blame faced by the Algerian government holding it accountable for being unprepared for dealing with these fires. Remarkably, Tebboune spoke about "the need to protect the national unity from any malicious attempt, warning against "opportunists who want to sow discord”. 

3- Simultaneous outbursts of fires: 

Arguably, the fires erupted in some countries simultaneously in different sporadic places. Additionally, they were concentrated in some hard-to-reach areas, which pushed some governments to favor a ‘conspiracy theory’. For instance, the number of fires in Algeria reached 99 fires across 16 states, and most of them took place in the mountainous Kabylia region, which is difficult to access. 

Despite the sharp criticism leveled by the opposition against the Algerian regime, the sequential and simultaneous nature of these fires prompted some of the fronts, such as the Socialist Forces Front, not to rule out what it called “suspicious criminal intentions of despicable schemers targeting the homeland and the people", and to demand serious and immediate investigations on the circumstances and reasons behind these repeated fires in order to take strict measures against the perpetrators. 

4- Employing the fire crisis in internal conflicts: 

This was revealed, for example, by the controversial statement made by Omar Saud, Mayor of Anadaq in Lebanon, when he said that "the fires of Anadaq and Qobayat were premeditated, and that one of their aims may be the displacement of the people of the region after wars failed to do so". He was accused of inciting sectarian strife, which called for a later clarification on his part through a statement, where he confirmed that all he meant was that the fires in Lebanon were premeditated.

In Tunisia, although President Kais Saied did not identify the parties responsible for the outbreak of the fires, some did not rule out that the main goal of the involvement of some parties in igniting these fires could be to exacerbate the internal crises which President Saied is currently facing following his extraordinary decisions announced on July 25.

Counter Reflections

Despite the multiple official accounts adopted by the governments of some countries regarding holding other entities responsible for the outbreak of the fires, it is difficult for these narratives to stand. These accounts did not receive a favorable response internally, at least for two main reasons:

1-   What some countries in the region witnessed is part of a whole. Fires broke out in many countries in various continents (Asia, Europe, Africa, North America and South America), which makes it difficult to overlook the causes associated with climate change, and to simply accept what happened to be premeditated events. However, it is likely that investigations would later prove the involvement of some parties, who may have deliberately continued or resurged the fires for as long as possible to achieve goals relevant to political conflicts and rivalries.

2-   The official accounts of the fires did not contribute to reducing the intensity of the severe criticism that erupted over social media in the countries that witnessed the fires. On the contrary, the internal reactions held the governments of their countries fully responsible, whether in terms of lack of readiness for the crisis, or in terms of their poor management. For example, after some pro-Erdogan media circulated news of the involvement of PKK fighters in the country’s fires, it was later forced to delete it after being subjected to internal criticism and ridicule, particularly since the areas that witnessed the fires are located in Southern and Southwest Turkey, while the Kurdish regions are located in Southeast Turkey.

In conclusion, it can be affirmed that adopting conspiracy theories in explaining the outbreak of fires that took place in several countries of the region can be seen as a way out of this crisis, and an unwillingness or inability to bear its consequences, both in terms of the internal criticism due to the poor management of the crisis, or in terms of its being used politically by the opposition forces. However, this does not negate the responsibility of governments in some countries for the failure or the shortcomings in managing the fire crisis. On the other hand, international estimates warn of more serious effects of climate change in the coming years, which will result in doubling the areas to be exposed to the risk of fires. This should serve as a wake-up call for the countries of the region, in a way that forces them to prepare well in advance to face similar future crises.