Currently, NATO is in the process of restructuring its military presence in Iraq after the latter succeeded in eliminating ISIS from the country. In this context, NATO seeks to strike balance between the requirements of the Iraqi government and its need for foreign presence on Iraqi territory post-ISIS, and the special requirements related to the security and interests of its members perceived to have provided the largest military effort in Iraq.

Revealing Moves 

The major steps that have been taken during the recent period, which have revealed NATO’s endeavor to restructure its military presence in post-ISIS Iraq, can be gleaned from the announcement of the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, during the recent NATO summit in Brussels, held during the period 11-12 July, on the commencement of the establishment of a new NATO mission in Iraq to train the security forces. The nature of the mission can be illustrated through the following points: 

1- Non-combat mission: The NATO Secretary-General noted that the special training mission in Iraq would be non-combat but would assist Iraq in preventing ISIS and other terrorist groups from making a comeback. He also indicated that it would include hundreds of NATO instructors, help establish new military schools, and increase the professional skills of the Iraqi forces.

2- Canadian command: The Canadian government announced on July 11 that it would send about 250 military personnel, armored vehicles and four helicopters, in preparation for assuming a one-year command of the NATO mission to train and support Iraqi forces. The Canadian government said its troops, led by a Canadian Major General that has not been selected yet, will be deployed beginning of autumn 2018 in Baghdad to assist Iraq in building a more effective national security structure and to develop the training of Iraqi security forces. Also, it pointed out that mobile training teams in support of the NATO’s efforts to combat explosive devices have already begun their work. 

It is worth mentioning that Canada has been participating in the international coalition against ISIS since 2014 by conducting air operations, providing medical support and training to the Iraqi forces. The Canadian government announced in June that the 210-strong Canadian force in Iraq was no longer providing assistance or training to Kurdish fighters after ISIS was completely defeated in northern Iraq.

Driving Factors

NATO’s plan to restructure its military presence in Iraq can be attributed to a set of factors, as follows: 

1- The US continuous pressure on NATO: The Pentagon has been aggressively pushing its European partners in NATO over the last period to form an official NATO mission in Iraq with permanent or quasi-permanent leadership to train and advise the Iraqi forces in the long term. Estimates suggest that the US motive behind this pressure is the Alliance’s long experience in Afghanistan, which makes it ideally suited for the rehabilitation of Iraqi forces after the restoration of the territories controlled by ISIS.

It also comes in the light of US pressure on NATO to engage more extensively in the war on terror, as the US administration, led by President Donald Trump, argues that the Alliance, in its present form, needs comprehensive reform, and that the US is bearing an unequal share with its European counterparts in financing the activities of the Alliance. In this context, President Trump renewed his demand during the recent NATO summit to increase the European defense budget in NATO.

2- Current NATO’s commitments after joining the international coalition: Having joined the international coalition against ISIS on 25 May 2017, NATO has become committed to participate in combat and non-combat operations to thwart any possible resurgence of ISIS cells in Iraq after its total elimination, including to serve as a practical platform to coordinate the efforts of NATO on the one hand and the partner states of the international collation on the other, and to prevent the resurgence of ISIS or any new terrorist entities.

3- Reviews done by NATO members of their role in post-ISIS Iraq: NATO’s efforts to restructure its military role in Iraq has to do with the arrangement of its members in this regard. For example, the US announced in February 2018 that it had reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to withdraw 60% of its troops in the country and maintain 4,000 US troops to train the Iraqi army. In addition, the international coalition against ISIS announced in February 2018 that it is reviewing its activity in Iraq after the declaration of victory over ISIS in the country, and that the continued existence of the Coalition will be determined according to the circumstances, based on the needs, and in coordination with the Iraqi government.

4- Iraq has been a terrorist hotbed over the last two decades: NATO is aware that after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraq has become a terrorist hotbed for exporting terrorism in the Middle East region as a whole, the latest of which was ISIS, an Iraq-born organization. NATO also believes that the environment in Iraq is still fertile and can spawn new generations of terrorists and that, despite the destruction of ISIS’s military structure, its terrorist ideas still exist, and it can evolve with time to reemerge in new military designations and forms, as evidenced by the experiences of terrorism in Iraq, which exploited the survival of the Sunni supportive and enabling environment to make a comeback. Therefore, the NATO’s training mission for the Iraqi security forces comes against the backdrop of its fears that new versions of ISIS may emerge in the coming period. 

Tough Task

Obviously, NATO has quickly responded to the US request to get ready for training the Iraqi forces. This is part of the NATO’s efforts to address the mounting criticism of the US for its current role and to send a strong message about its commitment to fight terrorism.

It is also evident that the form of a foreign military presence in Iraq in general and NATO’s military presence in particular is being restructured according to the new situation after the defeat of ISIS, a situation that obviates the need for materiel and combat crews, while the need for other non-combat equipment is doubled, especially those used in monitoring and surveillance operations, as the coming battle with ISIS in Iraq is an intelligence rather than a field battle.

Moreover, the objective of this military presence is primarily centered on training the local security forces and the army, ensuring that ISIS does not return to the liberated cities, preventing any armed factional or nationalist infighting in cities with a predominantly Sunni Arab majority, and focusing on border control between Syria and Iraq.

NATO’s training mission in Iraq is not expected to be easy, given the rejection of foreign military presence in the country by Shiite forces and factions, foremost among them is Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. Clearly, that refusal carries a veiled threat to NATO forces, which will have a negative impact on the efficient completion of its training programs for the Iraqi security forces.