For the first time in its post-World War II history, Germany still does not have a new government following the national elections held on September 24, 2017. This is unprecedented as in each previous election cycles, those political parties elected were able to quickly put together governing coalitions based on the result of the election. This has not been the case this time around and even three months later, it is not clear what type of government might emerge from the ongoing discussions. The current situation is therefore a severe test for the steadfastness of the German democratic institutional landscape and its constitutional experience.
Voters’ Dissatisfaction
The elections in September 2017 produced a number of interesting results. For one, the two main established parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) that have been governing as part of a so-called “Grand Coalition” since 2013, both suffered significant losses at the polls. The CDU, together with its Bavarian sister party the Christian Socialist Union – CSU, lost 8.6 percent compared to the 2013 election to come in at 32.9 percent, its lowest return since the election of 1949. The SPD also lost 5.2 percent of their share of the vote to only receive 20.5 percent in total, the worst result in the party’s history overall. The two established parties, thus, sank to their lowest level in terms of overall share of the vote combining for only 53.5 percent. In comparison, in 1987, their combined vote still amounted to 81.3 percent of the total vote. Accordingly, the September election not only continued a trend away from the establishment parties, it was also a clear indication of voter dissatisfaction with the work of the grand coalition. As a result, SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz announced on election evening that his party would now go into the opposition and would not be available for another grand coalition effort.
A second impact of the election was the strengthening of the smaller parties with the Left (+0.6 percent), the Greens (+0.5 percent), the Free Democrats (+6.0 percent) and the Alternative for Germany (+7.9 percent) each gaining as compared to the last election cycle. The future German parliament is therefore composed of six parties for the next governing period instead of only four parties represented in the previous parliament. Overall, this has complicated matters as no one is ready to include the Alternative for Germany in any future coalition effort, given accusations that the party pursues a xenophobic and racist agenda that builds on Germany’s fascist past. As a result, the immediate outcome of the election only left two possibilities – a continuation of the Grand Coalition, which the SPD clearly rejected right away, or a new coalition composed of the CDU, the Greens and the Free Democrats. While such a coalition has been put together at the local federal level, it has not been attempted at the national level.
Stagnation Period
Given the wide discrepancies in their party platforms, especially between the Greens and the Free Democrats, it quickly became apparent that a so-called “Jamaica” coalition (so called due to the color of the respective parties – CDU black, the Greens green and the Free Democrats yellow) would be difficult to put together. Following four weeks of exploratory talks that included long marathon sessions and repeated deadline extensions, the Free Democrats pulled out of the talks therefore putting an end to this option. This decision threw Germany into a period of profound uncertainty as with the SPD’s No to another grand coalition only two other options remained – a minority government that would need to put together governing majorities on each individual issue facing the government or new elections with the hope that this would provide a more definitive outcome.
Each of these options, however, is highly unappealing. A minority government is considered unstable and would not be seen as having the necessary weight and reliability as needed inside Germany and within Europe. And new election would in all likelihood increase the power of the far-right Alternative for Germany at the further expense of the larger parties. Thus, for both, the SPD and the CDU, it became an imperative to prevent new elections. Following a call from the German President Franz-Walter Steinmeier for the main parties to stand up to their responsibility saying that this “cannot be simply given back to the voters,” the SPD very reluctantly agreed to consider entering into new talks with the CDU and Chancellor Merkel about the renewed governing effort.
At this stage, it remains unclear whether the deadlock can be resolved. While some members of the SPD argue that the party has now no other choice then to enter a new coalition with the CDU, again as minority partners, a strong majority within the party is convinced that the SPD must go into the opposition if it wants to survive as a party down the road. Even if the SPD decides to go the governing route, the party must show that Merkel and the CDU are willing to make significant concessions in coalition talks that would assuage widespread and lingering doubts about the viability of such an effort. Even before starting, both sides have indicated tough discussions that could continue well into the new year. Germany is therefore facing the prospect of not having a new government for quite some time.
The implications are numerous. On the one hand, this is a new experience and test for Germany post-war politics given its unprecedented and unique nature. If Germany’s established political parties are unable to agree on a sustainable compromise, the result could be the further strengthening of fringe populist parties on both the right and left political spectrum. Germany could thus follow other examples in Europe and begin to raise doubts in people’s mind about its overall political stability. A good percentage of the German electorate already has voiced its conviction that the current political systems no longer functions properly. While a greater reform effort is needed, it is unclear into what direction such reform effort would go.
At the same time, such alarm bells are premature. The fact that an acting government remains in place until a new governing coalition is found is testament to the strength of the constitutional arrangements and no one has so far talked of a country in crisis.
European Obligations
More problematic is the issue of Germany’s ability to influence and steer debate at the European and foreign policy level, where European commentators have warned of the consequences of a prolonged German political period of stagnation. This is particular pertinent as far as the future of the European Union in concerned where French President Macron and EU Commission President Junker have each laid out their vision of the future of the EU and are now waiting for the response from Berlin to these proposals. With the government being preoccupied on the one hand and with several components of these proposals likely to be controversial inside Germany on the other, it would appear that a quick answer would not be forthcoming. This is not comforting news at the time of great international volatility where the EU is trying to reassert its voice especially given the more unilateral policies being pursued by both Russia and the United States. The decision by the Trump administration to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the uncertainty over the stability of Lebanon and the prospects for a further deterioration in Yemen following the killing of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, all require a strong European response that involve Germany.
For the moment, the political stalemate inside Germany will remain and it is unlikely that a new governing coalition will be put together until early 2018. Given the stakes involved, new elections could still be in the cards although this would prolong the uncertainty even further.
