On November 11, 2024, North Korea’s Central News Agency reported that Pyongyang had ratified a mutual defense treaty with Russia. This agreement, signed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, stipulates that both parties will provide support to each other in the event of an armed attack. In October 2024, reports suggested that North Korea dispatched several thousand troops to Russia to assist in its war effort in Ukraine. Although both Moscow and Pyongyang have neither confirmed nor denied this action outright, China’s silence and ambiguous stance on the matter have been equally enigmatic. The increasing military alignment between North Korea and Russia has raised significant concerns in China, a key strategic ally of both nations. These concerns stem from the potential repercussions on Beijing’s regional and global influence.
Diverging Contexts
The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia came as a result of escalating tensions surrounding the Ukrainian crisis and occurred within the varying contexts of evolving trilateral relations between China, North Korea, and Russia. These dynamics can be understood through the following lenses:
1. Chinese Frustration with Pyongyang:
China has a historically close relationship with North Korea that spans over seven decades, with Beijing often regarded as Pyongyang’s closest ally. This bond is bolstered by a mutual cooperation and assistance treaty, a shared border stretching 1,146 kilometers, and extensive military and security collaborations. Additionally, China remains North Korea’s largest trading partner.
However, recently signs emerged that Beijing is displeased with North Korea’s foreign policy moves, particularly its increasing ties with Russia. China has expressed unease about Pyongyang’s decision to deploy troops to Russia for the war in Ukraine. In a noteworthy development in early October 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping omitted the traditional reference to North Korea as a “friendly neighboring state” in reply to a congratulatory message from Kim Jong Un on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
Moreover, China maintained a cautious stance regarding Kim Jong Un’s growing relationship with Vladimir Putin, which was reflected by the strategic agreement signed by their countries in June 2024, which included provisions for mutual defense.
2. Expanding Military Cooperation Between China and Russia:
Moscow and Beijing maintain a strategic partnership, particularly in military and economic domains. Recently, their military collaboration has intensified, as evidenced by several joint military exercises and reciprocal visits between high-ranking military officials from both countries.
In September 2024, the two nations conducted the Ocean 2024 strategic exercise in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk to enhance strategic military coordination in addressing security threats. Earlier, in July 2024, China and Russia carried out the Northern/ Interaction-2024 naval and air exercise along China’s southern coasts, simulating responses to anti-aircraft and anti-submarine attacks and included maritime rescue operations.
Moreover, Russia’s Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited China in October 2024, where he met with senior Chinese officials to underscore the importance of military cooperation for maintaining international stability. During the visit, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), Zhang Youxia, called for deepening ties with Russian armed forces at all levels.
3. Growing Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation:
The relationship between Russia and North Korea has grown significantly over recent years, especially after the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2022. They promoted cooperation, especially in defense and military fields.
In June 2024, during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, this culminated in the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the two countries, which included provisions for mutual military support under Article 51 of the UN Charter and their national laws in case of external aggression. This agreement aims to establish a foundation for deepening ties in all domains and promoting stability in the Eurasian region.
Prior to this agreement and North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia, Pyongyang, in September 2023, agreed to supply Russia with missiles and ammunition in exchange for food aid and support for its space program. North Korea sent over 13,000 containers of military supplies to Russia.
China’s Motives
Several factors drive Beijing’s concerns over the recent strengthening of military ties between North Korea and Russia, particularly after Pyongyang’s deployment of troops to Moscow. These motives include:
1. North Korea’s Strategic Importance to China:
Chinese leader Mao Zedong once called the relationship between China and North Korea to be as close as “lips and teeth” (referring to the Chinese proverb that if the lips are absent from a mouth, the teeth will get cold.)
This highlights the mutual importance of these two nations. North Korea serves as a buffer zone between China and US allies in East Asia. The collapse of Kim Jong Un’s regime would likely lead to millions of refugees crossing into China, creating significant economic and social challenges.
Conversely, China is North Korea’s only lifeline, where trade with China accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s total trade volume. For example, when the two nations closed their borders during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, North Korea’s economy shrank by 4.5%.
2. Increased Western Alignment in the Asia-Pacific:
One of China’s primary concerns about North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war is the potential for the US and its Western and Asian allies to strengthen their military presence in the Asia-Pacific region—an outcome China seeks to avoid.
China opposes what it perceives as NATO’s growing role in Asia, particularly its expanding ties with Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. In Beijing’s view, such moves are not only detrimental to its own interests but also undermine regional security and stability. Beijing considers these defense alliances a Western tool to contain China’s rise as a global power, potentially aiding Washington’s effort to quickly rally allies for any potential conflict with China over Taiwan.
3. Impact on the Korean Peninsula’s Power Balance:
From China’s perspective, North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia could destabilize the power balance on the Korean Peninsula. This might prompt the US, Japan, and South Korea to strengthen their military alliance in East Asia to counter Pyongyang’s ambitions of playing a military role beyond the region.
Because of this situation, China is facing a complex dilemma: on the one hand, it does not want to see a resurgence of Cold War tensions in East Asia, but on the other hand, it opposes US efforts to reinforce alliances with South Korea and Japan. For instance, Japan has voiced “deep concerns” over the growing military collaboration between Russia and North Korea, noting that it further worsens the conflict in Ukraine and impacts security in the region around Japan.
Moreover, North Korean forces’ actual military involvement in combat in Ukraine could earn combat experience and the opportunity to test their advanced weapon systems, potentially leading to fundamental shifts in the security balance on the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, North Korea’s involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict might imply a mutual commitment from Moscow to intervene in any potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula, a possibility that is likely to raise concerns in Beijing.
4. Risk of China Being Drawn Into the Ukraine War:
China fears that North Korea’s military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war can drag Beijing into the conflict. If North Korean troops fight against Ukraine, Pyongyang, which is Beijing’s sole military ally, would become a legitimate target for Kyiv.
Given China’s defense treaty obligations with North Korea, an attack on Pyongyang would compel Beijing to deploy forces and use all necessary means to protect North Korea. However, there are doubts surrounding China’s direct involvement in the Ukraine war because its primary focus remains on Taiwan while constantly calling for a peaceful resolution to the island.
5. Escalation of the Regional Arms Race:
Among Pyongyang’s motivations for participating in the Ukraine conflict is to gain Russian assistance in developing its nuclear capabilities. This could accelerate the arms race on the Korean Peninsula—an alarming development for China.
North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia has prompted a noticeable uptick in missile tests and war games conducted by both North and South Korea. Recently, South Korea conducted joint air drills with Japan and the US in response to North Korea’s testing of a long-range missile. In October 2024, Seoul unveiled its most powerful ballistic missile, the “Hyunmoo-5,” capable of penetrating and destroying underground bunkers.
6. Moscow and Pyongyang Potentially Attempting to Isolate Beijing:
Russia’s use of North Korea’s troops in its war against Ukraine might reflect an attempt by Moscow and Pyongyang to distance or marginalize China from their strategic partnership, particularly in defense and military cooperation. What perhaps underscores this possibility is a statement from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, who commented on North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia, saying that Beijing “was unaware of specifics of cooperation between Russia and North Korea.”
Moreover, North Korea’s growing reliance on Russia for economic and military support could shift its allegiance away from China. Pyongyang has repeatedly declared that Russia is its “first friend,” further signaling a pivot toward Moscow at Beijing’s expense.
Potential Repercussions
The strengthening of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to have significant implications for China, which can be outlined as follows:
1. Decline in Chinese Influence over North Korea:
Despite the historical ties between China and North Korea and Pyongyang’s heavy reliance on Beijing for economic and political support, the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia could erode China’s significant influence over Pyongyang.
China opposes North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia, preferring a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis over military escalation. Hence, Pyongyang’s decision to send troops without consulting Beijing indicates a diminishing Chinese role in North Korea, with influence shifting in favor of Russia. It should be noted that Russia can provide Pyongyang with technical expertise in weapons development.
In 2024 alone, 40 diplomatic, economic, and military delegations were exchanged between North Korea and Russia—a four-fold increase in interaction between Pyongyang and Beijing. This growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia undermines China’s efforts to assert greater influence over North Korea. Consequently, North Korea’s military involvement could bolster the partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the expense of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
2. Increased US Pressure on China:
The United States has exerted pressure on China to dissuade North Korea from active participation in Russia’s war with Ukraine. Washington has urged Beijing to leverage its influence over both Russia and North Korea to prevent escalation following Pyongyang’s deployment of thousands of troops to Russia.
As part of the pressures, three senior US diplomats met with the Chinese ambassador in Washington to express concerns and to urge China to curb North Korea’s cooperation with Russia. In response, China reaffirmed its consistent stance on the Ukraine crisis, emphasizing its role in advocating for peace talks and a political resolution to the conflict.
3. Heightened Western Security Engagement in the Region:
NATO views the deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as a threat to its own security in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. The Western military alliance has confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, parts of which are partially controlled by Ukrainian forces.
This development can lead to strengthened military alliances between NATO and major Asian powers allied with the West, such as South Korea and Japan. In turn, China is expected to respond with countermeasures, potentially increasing tensions with South Korea, Japan, and NATO.
4. Impact on China’s Global Role and Influence:
North Korea and Russia are China’s key allies, and all three countries share a vision of an international order that contrasts with the US-led global system. However, moves by North Korea and Russia that diverge from Beijing’s interests—especially regarding the Ukraine crisis—could undermine China’s efforts to establish a multipolar world order away from US unilateral leadership of the current world order.
Moreover, enhanced military cooperation between North Korea and Russia might diminish China’s regional influence, particularly in East Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Such an escalation can increase risks and constraints that could hinder China’s foreign policy maneuverability, thereby limiting its ability to achieve its national interests and strategic goals.
In conclusion, North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia to participate in the war against Ukraine poses a significant challenge for China, their primary strategic ally. This is especially true given the strategic dynamics governing the relations among the three countries, where any sudden move by one party can significantly disrupt the trilateral relationship. This aptly describes China’s position regarding North Korea’s recent overture toward Russia.
Despite the potential complications this move may cause for China, it is likely that Beijing will respond pragmatically, in line with its foreign policy approach. China will likely seek to minimize the impact on its core interests and work to neutralize any negative repercussions on its regional and global role and standing.
