A new president for Somalia has emerged following a hard-fought and long-delayed election. On 15 May 2022, former Somali leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud became Somalia’s newest president, defeating a strong cluster of 36 candidates that included former prime ministers as well as former president Mohammed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’.
Strong Competition
After nearly 15 months of delays due to security issues, parliamentarians casted their votes at Mogadishu’s airport hangar to elect Somalia’s new president. The 66-year-old, who ruled from 2012 to 2017, defeated incumbent President Farmaajo in a third-round runoff. Somalia’s presidential elections took place under turbulent circumstances facing the country. The presidential elections just concluded could be summarised as follows:
1. Numerous contenders:
36 candidates including a single female ran in this year’s elections, excluding 3 candidates who withdrew in the first round. This marks the largest participation in a single presidential election in Somalia.
Some of the most prominent names includes newly elected president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, and Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Dani.
2. Three hotly contested rounds:
presidential elections in Somalia is representative, meaning members of the Federal Parliament of Somalia cast their votes on behalf of the Somali people. For any candidate to win the presidential race, they need to secure two-third votes of the 329-member parliament in the first round, or the race goes to a second round in which the top 4 candidates compete; if a majority vote is not reached, the elections go to a third and final round contested between the top two candidates. In that scenario, the victorious candidate wins by a narrow majority.
Reminiscent of the 2017 presidential elections, Hassan Mahmud’s win in the third round was comfortable compared to the first two stages, receiving 214 votes to Farmaajo’s 110.
Key Indications
Mahmud’s victory came as a surprise for several reasons, summarised in the following:
1. Strong support:
An academic, renowned politician, and leader of the Union for Peace and Development Party, Mahmud was backed by a wide array of political and social factions. He was largely supported by his clan, the Hawiye, the largest family in Somalia. Candidate and Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Dani and Hassan Khaire gave their vote support to Mahmud in the third and fourth rounds respectively, indicating an agreement amongst the candidates.
Mahmud’s reconciliatory narrative attracted many supporters around him, including former supporters of Farmaajo, especially the Rahanweyn and Dir clans. His far-reaching relations, domestically with the Somali factions, regionally with African, and internationally with the US and the West, played a key role in his success in the elections.
2. Cash no longer king:
despite serious efforts to buy off voters with Qatari money, Farmaajo was unsuccessful. A report by Africa Confidential revealed Farmaajo paid some MPs up to US $150 thousand dollars, and others between US $10 – 20 thousand. Other MPs received less payments to cast their votes in favour of Farmaajo.
3. The way forward:
the new Somali president faces numerous challenges. First, Farmaajo’s contentious and corruption-ridden term caused deep rifts within Somalia’s institutions. The new Somali president must overcome these divisions caused by the former incumbent.
Second, the presence of old guard across the country’s institutions. As Mahmud endeavours to bring about political reform, politicians loyal to Farmaajo may impede the implementation of new policies. Third, an increased activity of Al-Shabab insurgence group pose a real challenge to the stability of Mahmud’s presidency. Fourth, regaining trust of the international community would be a difficult task for Mahmud, who would need to spend much of his efforts restoring foreign relations dented during Farmaajo’s term. Finally, a much-needed agreement amongst the Somali political spectrum would be another important task for Mahmud to restore stability to the country.
Domestic and Foreign Repercussions
Evidently, Farmaajo was pressured by the international community to concede defeat to Mahmud. As such, the new presidency brings a host of changes to Somalia:
1. ‘Zero problems’ policy: Mahmud’s first stint between 2012 and 2017 was marked by political stability.
Then he focused his efforts on key issues, including strengthening the federal system of Somalia, successfully liberating large regions from the control of terrorist and insurgency groups, and building strong foreign relations.
It is expected therefore that during his renewed tenure Mahmud would revive a ‘zero problems’ policy domestically and abroad. He is expected to repatch relations with Gedo region which was a theatre to fierce clashes between Farmaajo’s forces who attempted to oust the region’s president. This key issue is surfacing again quickly as minister for media in Jubaland, Suleiman Mohamed Mahmud, demanded a quick resolution to the issue.
2. Robel’s ambiguous role:
it is expected that the presidential candidates union, of which president Mahmud is a member, would offer support to the new president. Union members could play a role in forming the new government under Mahmud.
Yet uncertainty surround Mohamed Hussein Roble’s role in the new government. The veteran prime minister may retain his position under Mahmud’s presidency, who would capitalise on Roble’s strong and wide network of relations. This, however, may be a double-edged sword: one the one hand, Robel’s strong relations across the Somali factions may be advantageous to Mahmud who would benefit from Robel’s prowess, stabilising the government and establishing security in Mogadishu; or, Robel’s heavy weight might limit Mahmud’s authority, hindering some of Mahmud’s reform ambitions.
3. Restructuring regional alliances:
Farmaajo’s campaign was supported by several regional countries, including Ethiopia and Eritrea. Similarly, President Mahmud’s alliance with the Tigray region may strengthen the relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, as well as relations with Kenya, which struggled under Farmaajo’s term. Supporting these views is a statement given by Debretsion Gebremichael, current president of the Tigray region and chairman of Tigray People's Liberation Front, saying he is looking to strengthening cooperation with Mahmud.
4. Shifting foreign relations:
President Mahmud enjoys good relations with many of the region’s key actors, including Turkey and other Arab states. His ability to expand on cooperation opportunities in the region would help Somalia move away from a rather fraught period under former president Farmaajo.
Also, the president-elect is expected to bridge relations with the West, particularly the US, and away from China ties with Somalia was strengthened under Farmaajo. Soon after Sheikh Mahmud’s ascension to power, US President Biden announced the deployment of some 500 soldiers to Mogadishu. Mahmud thanked President Biden for US support in fighting Al-Shabab insurgency.
5. Diminishing Al-Shabab:
Sheikh Mahmud was successful in freeing large regions of Somalia from Al-Shabab’s grip during his first tenure, and has been backed by the international community in his fight against Al-Shabab. The return of US troops to Mogadishu is a testament to the support offered to his efforts. Therefore, Al-Shabab’s activity is expected to weaken across Somalia in the coming period, compared to a period of political division and instability that allowed AL-Shabab to increase their terrorist activity.
In summary, the latest presidential elections is an important step towards a more stable Somalia. Incoming President Mahmud facing a challenging period ahead. He will need every support he can gather from the Somali political class and the international community to achieve an ambitious goal of national reconciliation that would lead to development and stability of Somalia.
