The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, stands as a pivotal global event, arguably the most significant on the world stage. Its importance stems from the fact that it determines the leader of the most influential nation in the current international order. Given this immense significance, the election draws intense scrutiny from the international community, including various countries and organizations.
Among these observers, China emerges as one of the most attentive nations, watching the proceedings with particular interest. This heightened attention is rooted in the understanding that the incoming administration will bring its own unique approach to managing relations with Beijing, shaping one of the world's most crucial bilateral relationships. This relationship unfolds against a backdrop of fierce competition between these two superpowers for influence and dominance within the international system.
As the election approaches, several questions arise: How does China perceive the U.S. presidential election? Does Beijing harbor a preference for any specific candidate, or does it view both contenders as essentially interchangeable from its perspective? The answers to these questions carry substantial weight, as the election's outcome will profoundly influence the trajectory of U.S.-China relations over the next four years.
China in the U.S. Election Campaigns
Foreign policy issues, particularly U.S.-China relations, often take center stage in U.S. presidential campaigns. Both the Republican candidate and former president, Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate and current vice president, Kamala Harris, have demonstrated a keen focus on articulating their prospective foreign policy approaches towards China in the event of their electoral victory. Their emphasis on this crucial aspect of international relations is underscored by the following points:
1- Bipartisan agreement on the China challenge:
The U.S. election campaigns have showcased intense competition between the Republican and Democratic parties, with both sides striving to present a firm stance on handling China and limiting its global role. A broad bipartisan consensus exists that China represents a significant challenge to the U.S. and stands as the top priority in Washington's declared global strategy.
In this context, Harris's campaign spokesperson for national security, Morgan Finkelstein, articulated the Vice President's position. Finkelstein stated that Harris "is clear-eyed about the threats posed by China, and as president, she will ensure the United States wins the competition for the 21st century." He further elaborated that Harris "will stand up against China's efforts to undermine global stability and prosperity," emphasizing her commitment to work closely with allies and partners while also investing in America's own sources of strength.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Trump has taken a more aggressive stance. He pledged to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on all Chinese imports if elected, a move that would effectively end a trade relationship valued at $575 billion. Trump's plans extend beyond tariffs, as he hinted at a new ban on bilateral investment with China. His promises include phasing out all Chinese imports of essential goods—ranging from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals—and ensuring that American funds do not support China's rise.
The significance of the China issue was further highlighted during the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The candidates engaged in a heated exchange over U.S. economic competition with Beijing. Harris criticized Trump's tariff proposals, warning of potential consequences such as higher inflation and recession. She also condemned Trump for allowing advanced technology to be sold to Chinese companies. The past statements and positions of both Harris and Trump regarding Beijing underscore the substantial significance China holds as a central issue in the U.S. presidential campaigns.
2- Allegations of Chinese Interference:
U.S. officials and media outlets have leveled various allegations against China, accusing it of interfering in the upcoming election. Chinese Ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, has vehemently denied these claims, urging the U.S. to avoid what he termed a "strategic error" in its approach to Beijing.
The accusations from U.S. government officials suggest that China is attempting to influence the presidential election by employing tactics reminiscent of those used by Moscow in the 2016 election. These alleged tactics include spreading disinformation to sway American public opinion. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has gone on record stating that the U.S. has observed evidence of attempts to "influence and arguably interfere" with the upcoming U.S. elections, an allegation that China has consistently and firmly denied.
Adding to these concerns, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has implicated China, along with Russia and Iran, in using artificial intelligence techniques to influence the election. According to the department, these nations are employing "a blend of subversive, undeclared, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine confidence in US democratic institutions and domestic social cohesion."
Despite these allegations, U.S. intelligence has found no concrete evidence of direct Chinese interference in the presidential election itself. However, intelligence reports have pointed to Chinese efforts to influence the outcome of congressional elections, which are held concurrently with the presidential election.
China’s Perspective
China closely monitors the unfolding U.S. presidential election, recognizing its significance not merely as a pivotal campaign issue but also for its potential to shape China's political and economic aspirations. The implications of this electoral process for China's ambitions are multifaceted and can be elucidated as follows:
1- The election as an internal U.S. matter:
China's foreign policy is firmly rooted in the principle of non-interference in other states' domestic affairs and respect for their sovereignty. Consequently, the Chinese government views the U.S. presidential election as an exclusively American matter, consistently refraining from commenting on its proceedings. This approach was clearly demonstrated in China's response to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate.
Beijing's steadfast opposition to foreign intervention in its own internal matters naturally extends to its refusal to address China-related issues raised during U.S. campaign seasons. This policy was particularly evident in China's reaction to Republican candidate Donald Trump's interview with Bloomberg News, where he insisted that Taiwan should bear the financial burden of U.S. protection.
Throughout these political developments, Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have maintained their diplomatic stance, carefully avoiding direct comments on either Harris's vice-presidential choice or Trump's remarks concerning China. However, Beijing has not remained entirely silent on the matter, expressing opposition to efforts aimed at making China a central issue in the U.S. presidential campaigns.
2- Political concerns:
The relationship between China and the United States stands as one of the most critical bilateral partnerships on the global stage, significantly influenced by leadership transitions in both nations. As the U.S. presidential election looms, China finds itself confronted with a challenging dilemma: choosing between two candidates who could potentially harm its interests. The outcome of this electoral contest and the subsequent leadership of the White House could have far-reaching consequences, not only for U.S.-China relations but also for the delicate balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.
Of particular concern to China is the possibility that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris might continue the aggressive diplomatic stance on Taiwan adopted by the Joe Biden Administration. This approach has centered on mobilizing U.S. allies against China and exerting pressure on NATO to address the perceived China threat as a priority. Furthermore, Biden has repeatedly pledged to intervene militarily in defense of Taipei in the event of a Chinese invasion.
3- Economic concerns:
China's economic and trade ties with the United States are deeply intertwined, with the outcome of the U.S. election poised to significantly impact these relations. The potential return of former President Donald Trump to office has raised concerns in China, as it could lead to an escalation of the ongoing trade war between the two nations. This prospect is particularly worrisome for China, given that its economy is already under considerable strain.
Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports signals a potential intensification of the trade conflict, which observers believe poses a significant challenge to China. While the Biden Administration has also taken measures to curb China's economic influence—such as imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and working to limit China's technological progress, especially in the semiconductor industry—it has simultaneously sought to re-establish communication with Beijing to prevent further deterioration in bilateral relations.
Amidst these tensions, China's primary objective is to avoid any additional strains in U.S.-China relations that could impede its economic growth, which is crucial for maintaining the government's legitimacy. This goal has become increasingly important in light of China's current economic challenges, which include a property sector downturn, a stock market decline resulting in a $7 trillion loss, and a rapid consumer price drop in January—the steepest in 15 years.
4- Preference for Harris over Trump:
Beijing has maintained a neutral stance in the U.S. presidential race, refraining from publicly endorsing either candidate, as both view China as a competitor or adversary. Regardless of the election outcome, China will face a U.S. president whose overarching strategy involves curtailing its development. Despite this official neutrality, U.S. assessments suggest that Beijing may privately prefer Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, perceiving her as a more predictable leader.
These assessments indicate that China believes a Harris administration would allow it to focus on domestic economic recovery while avoiding destabilizing conflicts. In contrast, Trump is viewed as a significant risk to this strategy, with his threats of imposing tariffs of up to 60% potentially severely impacting trade between the world's two largest economies.
There is a growing consensus in China that a second Trump administration would likely introduce greater uncertainty, instability, and unpredictability compared to Harris. This perception is reinforced by Harris's alignment with President Biden's approach, which emphasizes the importance of responsibly managing competition with China to avoid conflict.
Potential Implications
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could significantly shape the next administration's foreign policy approach toward China, with potential outcomes varying considerably depending on whether Harris or Trump assumes leadership. These possible scenarios are outlined as follows:
1- Kamala Harris victory scenario:
It is anticipated that Harris's approach toward China would largely align with the Biden administration's strategy, characterized by a firm stance on trade, technology, and national security issues. This continuity in policy is likely to have economic implications, as projections suggest that maintaining the tariffs imposed by Biden's administration could potentially reduce China's economic growth by 0.03% in 2025. Furthermore, from a political and strategic perspective, a Harris administration would be expected to intensify the strategic competition with Beijing while simultaneously strengthening efforts to build alliances and partnerships with Western and Asian countries to counterbalance China's influence.
2- Donald Trump victory scenario:
Trump's administration is poised to adopt a more confrontational economic and trade policy toward China, effectively continuing his previous protectionist stance. This approach, which primarily focused on imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and reducing economic cooperation, is likely to reignite a trade war between the world's two largest economies. The renewed tensions would likely extend beyond tariffs, encompassing disputes over intellectual property rights, restrictions on Chinese companies operating in the U.S., and increased protectionist measures aimed at countering Chinese competition in both American and global markets.
The potential consequences of such policies are far-reaching. As the U.S. is China's largest trading partner and heavily relies on Chinese imports, these measures would negatively impact both economies. Increased tariffs on Chinese goods would inevitably lead to higher prices and inflation in the U.S. market. Economic forecasts paint a sobering picture: Goldman Sachs predicts that Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce China's GDP by approximately 2%, while UBS estimates a potential GDP decline of up to 2.5% within twelve months of implementation. However, UBS also notes that if China adopts compensatory measures, the impact might be limited to 1.5%.
Despite this confrontational approach, there's a possibility that Trump's focus on trade deals could lead to negotiations of bilateral agreements with Beijing. These potential agreements might cover various sectors, including consumer goods, energy, and technology.
3- Priority of strategic competition:
U.S. public opinion polls and bipartisan consensus on China suggest that Washington will maintain its focus on strategic competition with China, regardless of the election outcome. The policy of containment is likely to remain a primary approach, with cooperative exchanges with Beijing taking a secondary role. Conversely, China emphasizes its willingness to be a partner and friend to the U.S., viewing a successful partnership as a mutual opportunity for development rather than an obstacle.
In conclusion, despite China’s efforts to portray a lack of concern for the U.S. election and frame it as an internal matter, Chinese decision-makers are closely monitoring the process. The intense competition between Beijing and Washington for global influence means that the U.S. election outcome will significantly shape future relations between the two superpowers. This is particularly crucial given China's political and economic ambitions. Consequently, the new administration will face the challenge of balancing strategic competition with Beijing while striving to prevent escalation into direct conflict.
