The concept of a two-state solution in Palestine, involving an Arab Palestinian state and a Jewish state, predates the establishment of Israel on May 15, 1948. In 1917, British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour issued the infamous Balfour Declaration, expressing British support for "the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people." This declaration became an international commitment under the League of Nations mandate in 1922. The mandate granted Britain the authority to promote the creation of a Jewish homeland by allowing Jewish immigration into Palestine. However, this decision sparked protests from the Palestinian people, leading to a revolution led by the Arab Higher Committee from 1936 to 1939.
In light of the outbreak of the Gaza war on October 7, 2023, this article aims to discuss the opportunities and challenges of implementing the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. To achieve this, we will clarify the historical background of this solution, including its emergence and various stages.
Historical Overview
The idea of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a historical development that can be traced as follows:
1. The Peel Commission and the emergence of the Idea of partition:
The outbreak of the Palestinian revolt in 1936 led to significant disturbances between Palestinians, the Mandate authorities, and Jewish immigrants. To investigate the causes of unrest and understand the grievances of the various parties, Britain formed the British Royal Commission of Inquiry. Chaired by Lord Robert Peel, the commission visited Palestine in November 1936 and heard hundreds of testimonies from representatives of Arab and Jewish parties. In July 1937, the commission's final report was published, recommending the partition of Palestine into an Arab state and a Jewish state.
2. UN General Assembly resolution on the partition of Palestine:
The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181, issued on November 29, 1947, was based on the recommendation for the partition of Palestine in the Peel Commission report. The General Assembly (UNGA) was assigned the task of examining the settlement of the situation in Palestine before the end of the British Mandate. To prevent disruption and restore peace, a committee was established, which also recommended the partition of Palestine into an Arab Palestinian state and a Jewish state. Jerusalem was to retain a special international status.
3. The two-state solution throughout the years:
The concept of the two-state solution did not come to fruition but was proposed in several Arab initiatives. These include the King Fahd Initiative in 1981, the Palestinian Declaration of Independence in 1988 after the first Intifada, and the Palestinian acceptance of "two states for two peoples." The Oslo Accords in 1993, which depended on the mutual recognition of Israel and the PLO, also supported this idea. Furthermore, the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 reaffirmed the principle of a two-state solution to resolve the conflict.
The Oslo process and its implementation, specifically concerning final status matters like borders, Jerusalem, and refugees, encountered difficulties at the Camp David 2 Conference in 2000, against the backdrop of the second Intifada. Subsequently, the Quartet, consisting of the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations, was established, and a roadmap was created and supported by former US President George W. Bush. This document provided a framework for achieving a Palestinian state by first reaching an agreement on security arrangements.
Under Resolution 43/177 of December 15, 1988, the UN recognized the declaration of the State of Palestine issued by the Palestinian National Council a month prior. The document affirmed the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination in their territories, which had been occupied since 1967. On November 26, 2012, the General Assembly issued Resolution 19/67 approving the granting of non-member observer state status to Palestine in the United Nations. The resolution also called on the Security Council to consider Palestine's request for full membership in the UN.
Despite nearly universal international consensus on the necessity of a two-state solution as the only viable way out of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, this approach is not without complications. While it enjoys support from officials and leaders in various European countries, as well as the US, China, Russia, and others, the discourse and political implications surrounding the two-state solution are fraught with difficulties and entrenched problems. One of the most prominent challenges lies in the current right-wing and religious extremism prevailing in Israel since the rise of the ruling coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu in December 2022.
Israeli opposition to the two-state solution predates the formation and governance of this coalition. This opposition is rooted in Netanyahu's long-standing presence in Israeli political life. Netanyahu's formation of the "New Right" and his efforts to unify the right-wing front and reject the establishment of a Palestinian state have gained credibility with the rise of this coalition. His approach centers around Israel's ability to coexist with the Palestinian threat and manage the conflict for decades, rather than resolving it.
The popularity of the Israeli left has rapidly declined, especially after the displacement and marginalization of the leftist Labor movement, which had been dominant in Israeli political life since its establishment until 1977. The decline is evident in the annexation plan, which either involves expelling Palestinians or subjecting them to Jewish laws. Dissenters are dealt with by the military and security establishments. The right-wing dominance, along with its judicial reform plan, aims to strengthen political and religious values while closing the door on Palestinian aspirations.
Additionally, the promotion of settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem, which intensified during the Oslo Accords, has worsened the situation. The number of settlements has doubled during the Oslo years. With the rise of religious and nationalist right-wing movements, there are plans to establish settlements in Area C, which makes up 60% of the West Bank. The estimated number of settlers in the West Bank and Jerusalem is 750,000, forming a united doctrinal and religious bloc. They are officially armed and have significant resources for settlement support, as well as the protection of the Israeli military or settlement guards.
On the Palestinian side, the main obstacles to implementing the two-state solution stem from the ongoing division between Fatah and Hamas, which has been in place since 2007. This division is not only political but also ideological and societal in nature. It has impeded the unification of Palestinian territories and the creation of a political framework that encompasses all factions and adheres to the fundamental principles of state formation.
Furthermore, the ongoing division among Palestinian factions has weakened the credibility of the Palestinian national movement on the international stage. It has also given Israel an opportunity due to the absence of a Palestinian partner in peace negotiations. Additionally, the strategic conflict between pursuing a political and diplomatic resolution to the conflict versus resorting to armed resistance further worsens the situation.
It is worth noting that regional tensions, along with instances of exploitation targeting Palestinians, significantly obstruct efforts towards achieving a settlement grounded in the two-state solution. Consequently, this situation necessitates a broader engagement in resolving regional conflicts, which in turn exacerbate divisions within the Palestinian context.
It is also important to acknowledge the international community's failure to effectively promote the foundations of the two-state solution. Additionally, the lack of adequate pressure on Israel, particularly from the United States as its main supporter, and the approach of treating the two-state solution as a mere echo without taking concrete and convincing steps have both contributed to its failure. Perhaps the recent resurgence of the two-state solution may indicate that the international community has recognized the danger of neglecting and disregarding it in recent years.
The Impact of the Gaza War
The October 7 Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza have had conflicting and contradictory effects. On the one hand, the nature of the war and its destructive effects have brought support for the two-state solution to the forefront internationally. This solution is now seen as the only possible and acceptable one. The recent vote by UN members to support Palestine's application for membership demonstrates the international community's realization of the danger of its silence and neglect in reviving the two-state solution. Some even believe that the continuation of settlement, the Israeli ruling coalition, and its practices have provoked the Al-Aqsa Flood attack, despite the wide condemnation it received from Western countries.
However, the revival of the two-state solution is marred by a loss of trust. The outbreak of the Gaza war has led to renewed support for the two-state solution. However, this revival is overshadowed by a significant loss of trust between the Israelis and the Palestinians. On one hand, the Israeli support for the war and the mass killings in Gaza have fueled an escalation of incitement and hatred against Palestinians, both in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. On the other hand, Palestinians continue to endure the oppressive nature of Israeli power, which defies international norms and humanitarian law, resulting in a high number of casualties, particularly among women and children.
As a result, there has been mutual dehumanization between the two parties. The Israelis no longer view the Palestinians as potential peace partners or equals due to their actions on October 7, 2023. Similarly, the Palestinians have developed a similar attitude due to the killing and destruction in Gaza. They believe that those who deliberately target women and children, kill entire families, and destroy entire neighborhoods are not human. Opinion polls conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah suggest that this phenomenon will have catastrophic effects in the future. Despite the current disastrous situation, it may present an opportunity for a solution if the involved parties realize that continuing down this path will only lead to failure in achieving their goals through the use of force.
Thus, the hope for peace can be strengthened through the two-state solution if certain conditions are met. The most crucial condition is the inclusion of an international endorsement of the two-state solution in a UN document issued by the Security Council. This can be achieved by either amending Resolution 242 to align with the two-state solution and eliminate any ambiguity, or by explicitly supporting the two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem. Alternatively, the Security Council could issue a new resolution that embraces the two-state solution, based on previous UN resolutions, while also outlining a mechanism for its implementation under UN supervision or negotiations facilitated by international sponsorship.
Additionally, the Palestinian division should be ended. This can be achieved by having Hamas and Islamic Jihad join the PLO. At the same time, the Palestinian political system should be rebuilt through elections. The ultimate goal should be the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories that were occupied in 1967.
