As Russia threatened to move “peacekeepers” into the breakaway Eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk it recently recognized, Western leaders made ready their pledges to unleash unforgiving economic sanctions. In London, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised a “barrage of sanctions.”[1] US President Joe Biden first signed an executive order that prohibited new investment, trade, and financing by Americans in the self-declared independent people’s republics. These were followed by the announcement of coordinated US, UK, and EU sanctions, with Tokyo joining in on the act later. Initial US sanctions were applied to VEB bank and Russia’s military bank, Promsvyazbank, which does defense deals. The White House also announced that sanctions would begin against Russian elites and their family members. Similarly, the EU and Britain targeted Russian banks—specifically their ability to operate internationally—and prominent government officials. So far, the impact has had little discernible effect. Options for influencing Putin’s decision-making calculus appear minimal.

The Pipeline Sanctions

One of the most important levers the Western powers believed they possessed was the threat to halt the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Europe’s most divisive energy project, worth $11 billion. Construction on Nord Stream 2 was completed in September, but it still required approval from German regulators before going into operation. The pipeline had been set to ease the pressure on European consumers facing record energy prices amid a wider post-pandemic cost of living crisis.

Due to Russia’s actions in Eastern Ukraine and what he called a “changed security environment in Europe,” Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz put in abeyance the opening of the pipeline. This holds the potential to be the most forceful move taken so far to impose economic and financial penalties on Russian action. Indeed, in telling remarks the Kremlin has since stated that it hopes the delay of Nord Stream 2 will only be temporary.[2] The announcement by the Germans is both an act of sanction for Russian actions in Eastern Ukraine, but it also acts as a bargaining chip to entice Putin back into negotiations.

US officials have not disguised their delight that Germany has decided to halt opening the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The degree to which the German public will stomach rising energy prices is a question, politicians in Berlin will be mulling over continuously; there is surely a time limit on how long the country will deny itself Russian gas. Putin knows all this of course.

Ramping up Sanctions

The Western powers are still had hoped that the fear of further and deeper punitive sanctions will deter President Putin from undertaking a coup de main against Kyiv. The White House has been at pains to stress that initial punishments are separate from more stringent Western sanctions “should Russia further invade Ukraine.” Western nations escalate sanctions against Russia in the event of a full invasion of Ukraine. The UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said on Wednesday that, “There will be even more tough sanctions on key oligarchs, on key organizations in Russia, limiting Russia’s access to the financial markets, if there is a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

As the Western countries are not likely to deploy their own troops to Ukraine, the threat of future sanctions is the only weapon in their arsenal and means of deterring further aggression.[3] Further sanctions may be being kept “in the locker” to deter massive Russian aggression, but invasion is what Western leaders publicly expect will occur. Certainly, events over the past few weeks have shown the weakness of such threats.

Failed Threats

Threatening sanctions seemed to carry no weight with Putin and his representatives during negotiations with Western leaders and their officials in recent weeks. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had earlier brushed off the threat of sanctions. “Our European, American, British colleagues will not stop and will not calm down until they have exhausted all their possibilities for the so-called punishment of Russia,” he had wryly noted.[4]

Perhaps years building up substantial foreign currency reserves gave Putin the confidence that he could weather any downtick in the Russian economy or obstacles thrown up by the US-dominated world banking system. Or maybe it is the closer strategic relations between Moscow and Beijing that have convinced the Kremlin that time is ripe for a major reorientation of Russia’s economy towards China.

As Russia looked poised on Wednesday night to strike into Ukraine, the US Secretary of State Blinken issued a raft of non-specific threats. He told NBC News in an interview that “if Russia continues to escalate, so will we.” Adding that: “At the end of the day, if that doesn’t stop President Putin, we’ve made very clear along with all of our allies and partners that there will be massive consequences going forward, a price that Russia will have to pay for a long, long time.”[5] The problem at this juncture is that Putin is simply dismissive of the West’s resolve.

Reestablishing Deterrence

Even if the implementing sanctions and taking other punitive measures seems too little and too late for some, there is still merit in following through with threatened punishments. To be sure, making good on threats on one level is an acknowledgment that the threats failed in their intended deterrent effect. But actions taken after the fact may serve to deter future aggression once the impact of the punishment is understood. As English Lord George Savile posited in the 1600s, “Men are not hanged for stealing horses, but that horses may not be stolen in the future.”

The larger question remains, therefore, about the credibility of NATO’s conventional deterrence and particularly the disposition of forces under its command in the Eastern Europe. Immediate plans announced by President Biden to bolster Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania include sending 800 infantry soldiers and up to eight F-35 fighter jets to locations along NATO’s eastern flank. But as the US increasingly looks to bolster its military posture in the Indo-Pacific the efforts the Europeans make for their own territorial defense will become more and more critical

Of most significance to the strategic balance in Eastern Europe is whether Putin’s actions in Ukraine have finally jolted Germany out of somnambulism. American politicians and strategists have long complained, not without good grounds, that Europe’s economic powerhouse does not pull its weight militarily and has been free-riding for far too long.

Making Ukraine a Meat Grinder?

In the meantime, Western powers will seek to do what they can to bolster Ukraine’s ability to make any full invasion of the country at the very least painful for Putin. Kyiv’s Western allies, especially the US and UK will continue to provide military support including lethal aid in the form of defensive weapons like anti-tank missiles.

Fiery speeches from Ukrainian MPs about turning the land into a meat grinder for Russian troops are hyperbolic in the extreme. But Ukrainians will put up some fight. As Ukraine’s President Zelensky told his fellow citizens: “If they attack, if they try to take our county—our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children—we will be defending ourselves. Addressing his Russian neighbors, he added: “As you attack, it will be our faces you see, not our backs.”[6] But Western powers know that Ukrainian resistance is not enough and now face the cold, hard reality of how to respond to the Russian “special military operation” launched on Thursday morning without pulling Europe into another major war. Certainly, threats of unspecified punishments will continue to fall on deaf ears.