Recently, tensions have risen between Turkey and Germany over differences on various issues such as the refugee crisis, and mass immigration from the Middle East to Europe – with Germany being the preferred destination for refugees – as well as developments in conflict countries, especially Syria and Iraq. However, various factors could push both sides to de-escalate tensions and contain their disputes in order to work towards agreements on issues of joint interest.
Controversial issues
Despite its importance and significant domestic impact, the refugee crisis is not the only issue the two sides have disagreed about in recent months, especially after Turkey’s insistence on linking this issue to its bid for membership in the EU. Several statements by Turkish officials implied that Ankara may not implement the EU-Turkey March 2016 Refugee Agreement if there is no progress on Turkey’s bid for membership in the EU.
Additionally, other issues have caused an escalation in tensions between Ankara and Berlin. A decision by the Bundestag (Germany’s parliament) in June 2016, to recognize the 1915 Armenian genocide triggered a strong reaction in Turkey. The government sharply criticized Germany’s policies, and threatened their acknowledgement of the genocide would impact bilateral relations. Turkey also accused Germany of supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and other leftist groups, as well as providing refuge to some individuals involved in the failed coup that took place in mid-July 2016.
The wedge between Germany and Turkey is expected to widen after the arrest of Deniz Yücel, a journalist for the German newspaper Die Welt. Yücel is a dual German-Turkish citizen, and Turkey intends to try him for spreading terrorist propaganda and inciting hatred. The German Foreign Ministry has protested the decision and complained to the Turkish ambassador, a move that is supported within Germany in light of concerns about Turkey’s freedom of speech record, especially after the recent coup attempt.
Counter considerations
Despite recent controversy in Germany over reports that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may visit Germany, as part of a European tour, in order to urge Turkish expat communities to support proposed constitutional amendments in a referendum on April 16, there are still several considerations that may convince both sides to defuse tensions and maintain open channels of communication in the near future.
Both Ankara and Berlin are invested in the war on terrorism, especially against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS). Recent attacks in both Germany and Turkey have been carried out by the group in response to military operations in Syria and Iraq. This means both sides must closely cooperate on security issues in the near future in order to limit the possibility of more attacks.
Some German jets participating in the war again ISIS use the Incirlik Airbase in Turkey to carry out operations. Although there are several reports that Germany refused to share intelligence on ISIS positions with Turkey, this has not undermined security cooperation between the two in the face of terrorism.
Several key points are on the agenda for both Turkey and Germany. This may force the two sides to set aside their differences and draw closer together, since bilateral relations are an important component to the fulfillment of these goals. The agenda is directly linked to the refugee crisis, which is a key topic for political forces in both countries.
Turkey is preparing for a referendum in April to amend the constitution and give the president more power. Meanwhile in Germany, general elections will be held on September 24, 2017 with current German Chancellor Angela Merkel aiming to win a fourth term in office in a race that is already expected to be fierce, due to her refugee policies.
Meanwhile, Germany still relies on Turkey’s role in curbing the flow of refugees into Europe, especially since Berlin is currently taking procedural steps to ease the growing burden of arriving refugees, especially in terms of security. Germany’s interest in this issue was evident during Merkel’s visit to Ankara in February 2017 where she announced that Germany would receive 500 refugees every month from Turkey.
On the other hand, despite continued criticism of Germany’s policies, Turkey wants closer relations with Europe in the near future as it endeavors to join the EU. Many inside Turkey believe that exacerbating tensions with Germany and continued European criticism of Turkish domestic policies could undermine this move in the long run, due to Germany’s weight within the EU.
These criticisms are evident in statements made by Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz. On February 27, 2017, he stated that his country does not welcome Erdogan’s visit to campaign for the referendum. “We clearly reject bringing the Turkish campaign and polarization to Austria” said Kurz, in reference to unrest in 2014 between supporters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Kurds after a visit by Erdoğan.
In conclusion, there are many reasons to contain disputes between Turkey and Germany, especially as both try to avoid the negative impact of developments in the region – whether in terms of terrorist attacks by ISIS or the continuous flow of refugees from the region into Europe.
