In the past few weeks, the Russian–Ukrainian conflict has captured the world’s attention. The international community is growing more worried of the possible scenarios that the conflict may lead to. International politics experts, commentators, and journalists can only speculate where this conflict is headed.
The conflict is further complicated by the mounting economic and political sanctions instigated by the West. Recently the US announced a series of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, aiming to render the operation far more costly than what Russian President Putin had planned.
In Africa, leaders worry over the huge impact this war will have on their continent. The ripples felt there are multi-vector: Economic, political, and security. Moreover, Africa sits at the heart of a tense balance of powers, between the West led by the US on the one hand, and the Sino–Russian coalition on the other. Therefore, during the early days of the conflict the position held by most of the African countries remained somewhat timid, whilst others have been more vocal against the Russian operation.
Treading Carefully
Reactions to the conflict by African countries were varied, even at times contradictory. Some voices were less condemning than others. This is not surprising, considering the complex relationship Africa maintains with Russia. In recent years, Russia has ramped up its economic and political activity in many states in the continent, ranging from mega-projects to anti-terrorism operations. Africa seems to be a central piece in Russia’s global geo-political ambitions. And Russia hopes to fill in the space being left by the West.
1. Reaction 1: distress:
Africa’s main political body, the African Union (AU) were clear in signalling concerns over the conflict. President of Senegal and the current president of the AU, Mr Macky Sall, expressed his “extreme concern at the very serious and dangerous situation created in Ukraine”, and asked Russia as well any other international actor to respect international law, and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Mr Sall also urged all parties to resort to negotiations and to immediately establish a ceasefire.
2. Reaction 2: silence:
Many other countries in Africa opted for silence. Their position is largely influenced by a complex and international geo-politics. Balancing a delicate relation between the West and Russia, many of the African countries did not take a strong position, either with or against, the Russian operation. Even countries such as Central Africa Republic or Mali, holding strong affiliations to Moscow, did not issue public positions on the conflict. And other countries with sizable numbers of citizens residing in Ukraine, urged their populations to remain calm and stay safe until help has arrived.
3. Reaction 3: condemnation:
In the UN Security Council, reactions by African countries are somewhat different. The non-permanent members of Ghana, Kenya and Gabon issued stronger statements echoing the position held by the majority of the Council members. The Ghanaian representative, for instance, warned of the wider regional repercussions of the war, and called for “for respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine in line with the core tenets of the United Nations Charter.” Moreover, the ambassador insisted that the operation is in breach of the Minsk Agreements, calling on both sides to uphold self-restrain and for diplomacy to make its way for a new European security structure.
Kenya’s ambassador, Mr Martin Kimani, was more direct, by recalling upon the detrimental past of colonial presence in the continent. He warned with clear terms the implications of the imperialist endeavours Russia may be pursuing in the region. Kenya’s position could be well understood in the context of its stronger ties with the US and the West.
South Africa’s statement was clearer than many of its compatriots. It asked for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and warned against the regional and global implications of the operation undertaken by Moscow.
However, South Africa’s position may be unexpected, considering its strong economic ties with Russia, where it invests more than USD 5 billion, whereas Russia’s investments amount to nearly USD 1 billion, all within a BRICS strategic cooperation framework.
Possible Implications
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict most certainly has casted a long shadow over Africa. Leaders are now weighing their options as the West shifts its attention closer to home.
1. Rising oil prices:
Global oil prices are nearly hitting highest level, breaking the USD 100 per barrel, the highest since 2014. The pressure on Africa resulting from spiking oil prices are huge particularly for countries like South Africa, which depend heavily on gas and fuel imports. For other oil-producing countries, however, the conflict may well present an opportunity as Europe looks for quick and reliable alternative sources to supply its dire demands. It must be noted, however, that oil revenues produced in Africa goes largely to multinational oil companies holding exclusive contracts to operations in the continent.
Yet, souring oil prices invariably leads to price inflation globally. Importing becomes far more expensive for African countries, threatening already fragile economies.
2. Food crises:
The looming crisis in food supply to the continent is enormous. Russia and Ukraine together produce 30% of the world’s wheat, 15% of its corn, and 58% of its sunflower oil. As two of the biggest food producers engage in armed conflict, food supplies are bound to be heavily disrupted.
African agricultural trade with Russia and Ukraine is significant. The sharp rise in these commodities, therefore, threaten the food security of countries on the continent. In 2020, Africa imported nearly USD 4 billion worth of agricultural products from Russia, almost 90% of which was wheat, and 6% sunflower.
Egypt is another major import partner of Russia. Along with Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa, the African countries make up nearly half of the continent’s imports from Russia. Additionally, the continents imports from Ukraine in 2020 reached to a staggering USD 2.9 billion, 48% of were wheat, and 31% were corn. The trade is visibly large. And economic ties are always entangled in politics.
3. Complex network of alliances:
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict is yet another test that Africa will have to face. For reasons discussed above, African countries will have to balance between a rising Russian influence and a long history with the West. The result is a mounting pressure on countries on the continent to take sides.
As the US looks to reduce its presence by 10% in Africa, countries may look elsewhere for strategic affiliation. Russia, hence, presents itself as a viable alternative. Analysts speculate that the diminishing US presence will be filled by Russian anti-terrorist armed groups on the ground, paving the way for stronger influence in Africa. Security remains a key strategic concern for the African countries, and Russia is offering the support they need.
Africa are looking for new partners in Moscow. The visit made right after the conflict began by Sudanese former Deputy Chairman of the Transitional Military Council, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, spoke volumes of the new relations forging with Russia. It hinted a support for Russia’s operation. Whereas the Russian Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of Congo announced Russia’s commitment to support the countries anti-terrorist operations. Russia is expanding its sphere of influence in Africa.
4. Security implications:
Undoubtedly, security operation funded by the West in Africa will take a hit. On the one hand, international support to anti-terrorist and peacekeeping operations in western Africa and the Sahara may be reduced as resources are prioritised to dealing with the raging conflict taking place in Europe. This is a cause for concern by the African nations.
On the other hand, as tens of Russian Wagner troops pull out of Africa to take part in the operations in eastern Europe, fears are growing of a vacuum left for terrorist groups to take advantage of and increase their activity. However, some analysts maintain that Russia would not abandon its entire presence in West Africa.
In summary, Africa has rapidly realised the impending effects brought about by the Russian operation in Ukraine. Large trade relations with both Russia and Ukraine have created a delicate situation in which African countries must prioritise their economic, political and security interests. Sharp rise in commodity prices, especially essential food supplies such as wheat, compounded by shifting security and political grounds, will mean Africa must look for strategic and sustainable solutions that directly address their specific needs, well beyond the short-term future.
