On March 12, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian announced that Iran had reached an agreement with the US for a prisoner exchange. He stated that if things went well with Washington, the exchange would take place soon and that everything was ready from Iran's end, pending technical and final coordination with the US. However, the US has strongly denied Abdollahian's claims.

The contradictory dimensions of this situation can be outlined as follows:

1.    Washington denies the existence of an agreement:

US State Department spokesman Edward Price described Abdollahian's statement as "another particularly cruel lie on the part of Iran," which increases the suffering of prisoners' families. He stressed that his country is working tirelessly to secure the release of the three Americans unjustly detained in Iran. The same was confirmed by US White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, who added that Iranian officials would not hesitate to make things up. Media reports suggest that Iran is holding several US citizens of Iranian origin, including Siamek Namazi, Imad Sharqi, and Murad Tahbaz.

2.    Tehran confirms its claims:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani expressed surprise at Washington's reaction to the statement of the Iranian foreign minister. He stressed that the two sides had reached a written agreement for the exchange of prisoners back in March 2022, signed by an official US representative. However, Kanaani added that the latter did not implement it and that what happened in recent days was an exchange of letters to update the agreement. This prompted the Iranian foreign minister to reiterate on March 19 that there is a written document between the two sides, noting that the signing took place in a third country. However, he did not publish the alleged documents.

3.    US clarifies the agreement:

The Financial Times has revealed that talks on a prisoner exchange took place between Iran and the US in September 2022 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, which was mediated by Qatar. The discussions included the release of Iranian funds in South Korea that would be moved to a Qatari account to ensure that Tehran would not spend them on sanctioned goods such as food and medicine. However, no final agreement has been reached to date.

Iran’s Objectives

Recent developments suggest that Tehran is referring to an agreement whose implementation stalled at the last minute. Iran's disclosure of the terms of this agreement and its attempt to imply that it is still valid could serve to achieve a number of goals:

1.    Affirming openness to relations with Washington:

Tehran is trying to signal that it is open to establishing relations with all external parties, especially as it seeks to mend relations with Arab neighbouring countries. These statements came two days after the disclosure of an agreement signed by Tehran with Riyadh under Chinese auspices to resume diplomatic, security, and economic relations, alongside other attempts to repair its relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and other states.

Therefore, Iran is signalling that it is willing to reach agreements with the US on highly controversial files, especially since the issue of prisoners carries humanitarian dimensions and might change the international community's perception of the Iranian regime, which responded ruthlessly to demonstrators in recent months.

The Friday imam of Qom City, Hashim Hosseini Bushehri, echoed this sentiment, stating that Tehran has no problem establishing relations with Washington if it follows a rational approach. Friday imams in Iran are known to be representatives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who appoints them. This confirms the head of the regime in Iran's trend to pretend that Tehran is looking to improve its foreign relations.

2.    Isolating Israel from Washington:

Iran is attempting to isolate Israel by claiming a surprise agreement, hoping to destabilize Israel-US relations. These statements come amid increased coordination between Tel Aviv and Washington in recent months and a recent visit to Israel by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on March 9, where he met with senior Israeli officials. It was agreed during the meeting that Iran must be prevented from accessing nuclear weapons. The two sides also conducted a joint exercise called "Red Flag" at Nellis Air Base in Nevada two days later, simulating an airstrike mission targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Perhaps Tehran is relying on Washington's preference for diplomatic solutions to deal with the Iranian problem, which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on February 21, as well as the US Defense Secretary, who also expressed a preference for political negotiation over other military options. Israel continues to reject this approach, claiming that diplomacy is not enough to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

3.    Encouraging the EU:

Tehran may be trying to signal a glimmer of hope for the EU to reach an agreement over European prisoners. Reports from 2022 estimated that there were more than 66 dual-national prisoners in Iran, including 15 British and 6 French nationals. Iranian civil servant Iranian official Hamid Nouri is also among the prisoners in Europe; he has been detained in Sweden on charges of participating in the so-called "death committee" that ordered the execution of thousands of prisoners in 1988. Nouri was sentenced to life imprisonment, and his case caused embarrassment to Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, who was also a member of this committee. Tehran may also benefit from pressuring Europe to release frozen Iranian funds in European banks, as it managed to do with the UK, which paid a £400 million debt to release two British-Iranian journalists in March 2022.

4.    Attempting to provide reassurance within Iran:

The Iranian regime seems to be attempting to assure the Iranian population that it continues to secure diplomatic victories with the West, just as it has done with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. In recent months, Iran has signed a deal with Saudi Arabia to activate a bilateral agreement that was signed in 1998.

Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has announced that his country’s leadership has reached an agreement to use the Emirati Dirham in Iran’s trade with the UAE, in addition to a new mechanism with Iraq to repay its debts to Tehran. These economic wins are expected to improve the regime’s image with the Iranian people, who have been grappling with significant economic challenges due to Western sanctions following the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018.

In essence, the recent statements by Iran concerning US prisoners are primarily politically motivated. Given Iran’s track record, we believe that previous Iranian reports have intentionally misled for political gain. For example, Iran claimed that it had already received $7 billion from South Korea in exchange for three US prisoners, which was completely false.

It is apparent that the US administration will find it challenging to conclude any agreements with Iran at the moment due to fear of sharp criticism from Congress, which is influenced by a Republican majority and a robust Israeli lobby. These groups are aligned on how the US should confront the growing Iranian nuclear threat. As Iran raises its nuclear enrichment to semi-military levels, the US government, unlike in previous instances, has strongly dismissed Iran’s statements.