On January 27, 2021, the political climate in Tunisia was charged up, following the parliament’s approval on a cabinet reshuffle on January 26, supported by 144 parliamentarians. This included new ministers joining the government of ‘Hichem Mechichi’, which had been formed on August 24, 2020. The proposed amendments intensified the political crisis in the country, against the backdrop of President Kais Saied’s announcement of his rejection of the cabinet reshuffle under the claims of the potential corruption of some ministers. Yet, Mechici resorted to the parliamentary majority led by Al-Nahda movement to gain the confidence of the parliament. Despite the lapse of a week since the new reshuffle won the confidence of the Parliament, the President rejected summoning the new ministers to take the constitutional oath, which paves the way for more complications in the Tunisian scene. Furthermore, the Parliament's approval of the amendments may fuel a constitutional struggle between the Prime Minister and the President.

Tensions about the government reshuffle:

In his meeting with the National Security Council, the Tunisian President announced his rejection of what he called ‘unconstitutional’ amendments pertaining to the cabinet reshuffle, indicating that he would not accept that ministers [suspected of corruption] take the constitutional oath before him. He also stated that according to section 89 of the Tunisian constitution, the appearance of the head of the government and its members before the president for taking the constitutional oath is a prerequisite for the commencement of their work.

Parliament Speaker, Rached Ghannouchi, commented on the President's statements against the amendments, highlighting his ‘symbolic’ role regarding the amendments, as the Head of State, which aggravated the conflict amidst the Tunisian political forces.

The events around the government reshuffle did not only involve the President and the Head of Al-Nahda movement. The anti-president parliamentary blocs joined the conflict, particularly the Dignity Coalition and the Heart of Tunisia parties, calling for the dismissal of the President.

On the other hand, the political forces demonstrated divergent political stances towards Al-Nahda movement. For example, Mohsen Marzouq, Head of the Tunisia Project movement, described Ghannouchi's call to establish a complete parliamentary system as ‘a sincere expression of his deep revolutionary ideology’.

The ‘Tunisia Forward’ movement described Ghannouchi’s call as a ‘coup’ against a president who was elected by nearly 3 million voters. Opposition to the ministerial reshuffle was not limited to the afore mentioned political forces. Blocs, including the Democratic Current, the People's Movement, Long Live Tunisia, and the Reform Bloc, announced their  refusal to grant confidence to this government reshuffle. On January 24, Abeer Moussa, Chairwoman of the Free Constitutional Party, called her parliamentary bloc (16 seats) to boycott the parliamentary session that would grant confidence to the cabinet reshuffle proposed by Mechichi.

Conflicting Attitudes:

There are conflicting attitudes between President Kais Saied and the majority in the Parliament led by Al-Nahda movement, which were rather exacerbated by the recent ministerial amendments. On top of the various reasons behind the Tunisian President's insistence on rejecting the government amendments come his reservations regarding some of the new ministers. Secondly, the President is concerned about Al-Nahda movement restoring dominion over the government, especially in light of Mechichi resorting to the movement and its parliamentary allies to pass the amendments. Third, according to President Kais Saied, the ministerial reshuffle did not respect the constitution, particularly what Section 92 stipulates regarding the need for deliberations within the Council of Ministers in case of introducing an amendment to the government’s structure. A fourth reason is the presidency’s opposition to men's domination over ministerial reshuffles, which comes relevant to the President’s previous statements regarding women's ability to assume full responsibilities.

On the other hand, Al-Nahda Party and its allies support the amendments for various considerations. First, the amendments contribute to reducing the influence of the President’s loyalists within the government, as the amendment ousted ministers that were close to the President, including Tawfiq Sharaf Al-Din, Minister of Interior as well as the Minister of Culture, Minister of Justice and Minister of Health. Secondly, Al-Nahda movement is keen on establishing the hegemony of the Parliament as a source of legitimacy. Accordingly, Ghannouchi called for the need to adopt a parliamentary system of government, stressing in his statements on January 30 that, " Ghannouchi called for the need to adopt a parliamentary system of government, stressing in his statements on January 30 Thus, comes the need for establishing a parliamentary system with a true separation of authorities, and where the executive authority rests in the hands of the party that wins the elections". [1]

Al-Nahda movement seeks to escalate the cabinet reshuffle crisis to cover up for the protests that have been taking place since mid-January against the failure of the government, supported by the movement, in addressing the economic deterioration, with growth rates falling below zero and with the increase in the unemployment rate up to 16.2%, in addition to the high inflation rates and the devaluation of the Tunisian Dinar.

Potential pathways:

Despite the endeavors of a wide range of Tunisian elites to enhance political stability, which is strategic for mobilizing external resources to save the Tunisian budget, the escalation of constitutional and political disagreements over the recent cabinet reshuffles points to two possible paths:

1-    Escalating clashes: 

With the Tunisian President affirming the unconstitutionality of the recent government amendments, and having obtained the support of some parliamentary blocs, which are explicitly hostile to Al-Nahda movement, confusion remains to dominate the Tunisian scene. Clashes may also escalate following Mechichi's statements on the evening of the ratification of the new ministers, where he said that the government amendments came, after an assessment, which he conducted by the authority granted him as the Head of Government. He also mentioned saying, "I went to the parliament, chosen by our people as a source of legitimacy, and we gained confidence from it"[2]. Thus, it seems unlikely that the blocs supporting the Mechichi government will retreat from supporting the recent amendments, particularly in light of their endeavors to contain the current public pressures.

Conversely, it is not expected that President Kais Saied will retreat from his refusal to appoint new ministers, who are suspected of being involved in corruption. The President is also expected to become more firm in confronting the Parliament, after its majority hinting to his removal. It is true that this process can only take place through the Constitutional Court, which has been inactive for years, or through a majority that exceeds two-thirds of the Council (45 deputies), which is not available. Nevertheless, this enraged the President deeply.

2-    'Pausing' the disputes: 

There are factors pushing for 'pausing' disputes over the government reshuffle. First, there are concerns about the repercussions of the escalation and continuation of the public protests that have been taking place since the beginning of this year, especially with the growing calls for besieging government buildings, especially the Parliament. Secondly, the country needs to mobilize external financial resources estimated at about $ 6 billion to finance the budget for 2021.

However, since the Parliament approved the new draft budget on December 10, the government has not disclosed specific measures for financing the budget. Third, Tunisian elites are well aware that the Tunisian economy is not self-funded, but rather depends mainly on foreign investments and on tourism. Thus, it is quite crucial to address the concerns of global financial constituencies regarding the impact of the political tensions on the economic conditions.

In conclusion, despite the internal complications in Tunisia, the parties to the crisis may tend to employ the current situation in order to attain goals of immediate and narrow interests. Al-Nahda movement, in particular, considers the crisis as a gateway to establish its hegemony over the government and to institute the parliamentary governance.