On October 17-18, 2023, China hosted the third edition of the "Belt and Road Forum." The event, commemorating the tenth anniversary of President Xi Jinping's 2013 launch of the ambitious Belt and Road initiative, saw participation from leaders of over 130 countries and international organizations, predominantly from Africa and Latin America, with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a notable a guest of honor. The summit raises the question of China's success in providing new momentum into this initiative, which will be addressed by monitoring and analyzing the reasons behind it, especially considering the numerous challenges the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faces, as well as its potential trajectory in its second decade.
Chinese Motives
There are many reasons why China chose to hold this forum after a lengthy period of not hosting in person international events and activities as a result of having a full lockdown due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The following are some of the more noteworthy of these reasons:
1. Drafting a roadmap for the initiative’s second decade:
By hosting the summit, China hoped to plan the future trajectory of the BRI in its second decade. This forum was key to assessing the initiative's past performance and setting new objectives, considering both its successes and the criticisms it has faced. In a "white paper" published by Beijing in October 2023, the BRI will remain "Beijing’s ‘overarching plan and its top-level design’ for opening up and win-win international cooperation." It also reiterated that the BRI is a key pillar for China’s vision for “a global community of shared future.”
2. An attempt to propose an alternative global economic system:
China opposes the current global economic order, which is dominated by the US and its Western allies. As such, Beijing is trying to propose an alternative vision for a global economic system based on collaborative principles, as President Xi tried to reaffirm ahead of the summit, defining the initiative he is pursuing as a comprehensive alternative to the US-led global order.
In the context of this perspective, it was unsurprising that President Xi reiterated his condemnation of what he called the policy of unilateral sanctions, geopolitical competition, and bloc policies. This is an implicit reference to recent American policy toward Beijing, which Washington sees as a means of mitigating risks while Beijing sees as a means of limiting its development and rise. This vision was also echoes in the “white paper,” in which the BRI was presented as an alternative global economic model, challenging the dominance of a few countries.
3. Institutionalizing the forum:
The Belt and Road Forum was initially planned as a recurring event, giving it an institutional nature after its first two editions in May 2017 and April 2019. However, China's adoption of the "Zero Covid" policy delayed the third edition. China stated that it will host the forum this year after reopening its borders with the outside world. With the goal of institutionalizing the forum, President Xi announced that China will continue to host the new forum and establish a general secretariat for it, as part of the initiative to strengthen the institutional building of international cooperation.
4. Reinforcing China's global leadership role:
Hosting this key international political and economic summit, China seeks to boost its international position. The gathering of numerous global leaders and heads of state from various continents underlines China's influential position and the broad international endorsement of its policies and key initiatives. Emphasizing President Xi's role as the visionary behind the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing seeks to underscore his leadership and the initiative as a hallmark of his tenure.. In addition, by hosting the forum, Beijing hoped to demonstrate its role and status as a leader of developing countries and the Global South, as well as prove its influence and position on the global stage and mobilize support for its initiative amidst escalating strategic competition with the US.
The Challenges
Despite the many gains and benefits achieved by the BRI for its two main parties (China and the participating countries), it has faced criticisms and challenges over the last decade, resulting in gradually losing the momentum that surrounded the initiative. The most notable of these issues are highlighted below:
1. The slowdown of the Chinese and global economies:
The global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked debate about the feasibility of the Belt and Road initiative, the economic viability of many of its projects, and the extent to which many countries benefiting from the initiative will be able to repay their debts. Additionally, the Russian-Ukrainian war also disrupted the passage of freight trains between China and European countries, leading to a pause in BRI projects in most of the European countries.
In parallel, the Chinese economy's slowing growth has resulted in a 40% drop in Beijing's economic engagement in the BRI’s countries over the last five years, compared to the peak of this activity in 2018. One of the main reasons for this downturn has been the COVID-19 outbreak, which severely restricted the operational and financial capabilities of Chinese companies and investors to engage in overseas projects.
2. “Debt Trap” diplomacy:
The US and Western countries believe that the BRI has caused poor countries to accumulate debts, rendering them unable to repay their debts to China. Research by Boston University scholars indicates that many recipient countries of Chinese loans are heavily indebted, with Chinese debt forming a substantial portion of their external debt. Western media reports suggest that the substantial loans for the initiative's projects have burdened these countries with massive debts, sometimes leading to China's control over assets in default situations. Beijing, however, has consistently refuted these claims, asserting that its loan agreements with participant countries do not impose political conditions.
3. Competing initiatives:
In the context of geopolitical and economic rivalry, primarily with the US, the Belt and Road initiative has encountered major challenges from several regional and international initiatives. One of the most recent initiatives, proposed on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, is the establishment of a new economic corridor connecting India, the Middle East, and Europe (IMEC), with the goal of increasing trade, conserving energy resources, and improving digital communication. If built, this corridor could strengthen trade relations between Washington's Middle Eastern partners and New Delhi rather than Beijing, as well as cut the trade route between India and Europe by 40%, providing an alternative to China's BRI. However, issues about the proposed corridor's financing, implementation timeframe, and sustainability remain to be decided.
4. Western skepticism of the initiative’s motives:
While developing countries have welcomed the BRI, some international powers, including the US, India, and European countries, were skeptical of its motivations, viewing the initiative as a tool to expand China's global geopolitical and economic influence. The past period has also witnessed a significant hardening of Western countries' stances against China, pushing some to consider withdrawing from the initiative. A notable case is Italy, the only G7 nation that joined the initiative in 2019, which is now considering withdrawal by the end of this year due to unmet expectations. Beijing views the criticism as being driven by an anti-China sentiment aspiring to limit its rise.
The Interpretations
The third edition of the forum revealed multiple implications, the most notable of which are mentioned below:
1. Liberating Putin from international seclusion:
The invitation of President Putin as a guest of honor at the forum was seen as a strategic move by President Xi to mitigate Putin's international isolation, offering diplomatic and economic support to Moscow amidst the sanctions and isolation due to the war in Ukraine.
2. Diminished high-level participation:
Unlike the previous editions in 2017 and 2019 characterized by a relatively large presence of leaders, heads of states and governments, the latest edition saw a substantial decrease in representation, with the majority of participants coming from developing markets in the South, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The forum drew more than 20 heads of state and government, including Chinese participation, which may indicate waning interest in the initiative. The participation of the Taliban government's Minister of Commerce, Haji Nooruddin Azizi, also seemed noteworthy, reflecting the recent shift in formal relations between Beijing and the Taliban. Despite the fall in high-level attendance, the BRI still retains support from countries in the Global South, particularly as Beijing attempts to bolster its position as an alternative to the US-led international order.
3. Ignoring the mention of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
It was notable that Presidents’ Xi and Putin statements, as well as the remainder of the speeches by heads of state and government during the forum's inauguration, failed to address the ongoing conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. The only mention of the conflict was in a speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. Neglecting to address the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the conflict in Ukraine, can be explained by the BRI’s emphasis on promoting trade and economic relations between China and the participating countries, rather than addressing any political aspects. This is in light of Beijing's intention to remain impartial in dealing with multiple global crises.
A Roadmap
To address the many challenges and obstacles that limit the Belt and Road Initiative's impact in achieving the desired results, the forum proposed several steps and measures that China intends to take to give the initiative greater momentum and restore its vitality and importance on a global scale. The most significant outcomes can be identified as per the below:
1. Announcing a new action plan for the Belt and Road initiative:
President Xi suggested an eight-point action plan to operationalize the BRI, many of which are closely tied to Beijing's ambitions of achieving long-term "high-quality" growth. Key components of the plan include the establishment of a new logistics corridor connecting Europe and Asia via direct rail and road transport, the establishment of the "Silk Road E-commerce Zone," signing of additional free trade agreements and investment treaties, pledging USD 47.8 billion in financing from Chinese development banks. Other focal points include promoting green development, advancing scientific development and artificial intelligence research, enhancing cultural and people-to-people exchanges including the tourism alliance, as well as efforts to establish Belt and Road institutions including establishing a secretariat for the forum.
2. Addressing existing challenges:
In response to the various challenges encountered by the Belt and Road initiative, China has recalibrated its approach over the past decade, shifting focus from large-scale, high-cost infrastructural projects like dams to more high-tech ventures, including digital finance and e-commerce platforms. Additionally, there is a heightened emphasis on climate change and artificial intelligence. President Xi's vision, articulated during the forum, aims to deepen cooperation in green infrastructure, energy, and transportation, and to initiate a global artificial intelligence governance campaign. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's announcement about advocating for a UN body to regulate artificial intelligence further reflects this pivot. This move, which includes opposition to "malicious obstruction" of AI development—a probable allusion to US policies restricting AI chip exports to China—signals China's intent to set global standards in emerging technologies and to promote its developmental model and governance ideals through the new BRI.
3. Russian contribution:
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in agreement with his Chinese counterpart Xi, recognized the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as aligning well with multilateral efforts to enhance global cooperation. Putin encouraged international support for expanding the Northern Sea Route, positioning Russia as a pivotal transit country within the framework of the BRI. This proposal underscores Russia's interest in integrating more deeply into the initiative and leveraging its geographic advantages to facilitate global connectivity.
4. Rejecting calls for economic decoupling:
In response to Western efforts to reduce dependence on China's economy, President Xi expressed strong opposition to any moves towards economic decoupling. He specifically criticized unilateral sanctions, economic pressures, supply chain disruptions, and initiatives promoting secession from China's economic sphere. This stance is a direct rebuttal to Western nations' strategies to diversify their supply chains, which have become increasingly reliant on China, the world's second-largest economy.
5. Strengthening Sino-Russian ties:
On the sidelines of the forum, on October 18, 2023, Presidents Putin and Xi held a meeting in Beijing, emphasizing the strengthening of Sino-Russian relations amid global challenges. Putin highlighted how global issues have positively influenced the relationship between Russia and China, while Xi praised the growing trust and cooperation between the two nations, advocating for their joint efforts in upholding international justice and fairness. Putin's visit and discussions with Xi signified a united front in their vision for a new world order, one that challenges the dominance of the US and its allies.
The onset of the second decade of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents a pivotal moment for China's expansive efforts to boost global trade and strengthen its connections with different continents, aiming for mutual benefits for both China and the participating nations. Acknowledging the challenges encountered over the past decade, Beijing is keen to recalibrate the initiative’s trajectory and address the obstacles it has faced. This commitment indicates China's determination to continue championing and advancing the BRI, which has been enshrined in its constitution as a fundamental aspect of its foreign policy and a key ambition of President Xi Jinping. The initiative also serves as a crucial instrument for augmenting China's global influence and stature.
Despite facing competition from initiatives launched by the US and Western allies, the future of the BRI hinges on its ability to effectively implement the newly proposed visions and ideas that aim to inject it with renewed global momentum. Its success will also depend on how well it adapts to various international dynamics and challenges. This balancing act will be critical for the BRI as it strives to maintain its relevance and effectiveness in the evolving global landscape.
