In January 24, 2022, members of the army
in Burkina Faso announced their seizure of power and the dismissal of Burkinabé
President Roch Marc Kaboré. One of the officers who seized power delivered a
statement on state television, signed by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Head of
the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR), announcing the
overthrow of the government, thus joining Burkina Faso to Mali and Guinea, in
the third military coup in West Africa in just eight months.
A stringent internal situation
Burkina Faso witnessed a coup d'état against Burkinabé
President Roch Marc Kaboré, who had come to power in 2015 through the country's
first presidential elections, following the overthrow of former President
Blaise Compaoré, under a public uprising that swept the country in 2014. The pre-conditions
of the coup and the key responses may be clarified as follows:
1-
The failure of endeavors to prevent the
coup:
The last few weeks have witnessed acute
tension between the Burkinabé army and President Kaboré, which culminated in
the declaration of some soldiers in the military barracks of their rebellion.
Then, the situation escalated with shootings in the vicinity of the
presidential palace, as well as the detection of a helicopter over the
President's house, which coincided with the spread of rumors that the army
seized power.
The government denied the existence of
any movements by the army, stressing that the situation was under control,
before the Burkinabé President issued a decision on January 23 announcing night
curfews. However, on January 24, a group of army officers delivered a statement
issued by the MPSR which carried out the last military coup in Burkina Faso,
led by Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba.
The statement announced that the army
had overthrown President Kaboré, dissolved the parliament and the government,
suspended the constitution and closed the country's borders. Some reports
indicated that Kaboré was detained, along with several government officials, in
the Sangoulé Lamizana military barracks.
2-
Regional and international
condemnations:
UN Secretary-General, António Guterres,
expressed his strong condemnation of the military coup, calling on the military
forces to ensure the safety of the President and hand over their weapons.
Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, also
expressed his condemnation of the recent coup, so did the Economic Community of
West African States (ECOWAS), which held the coup members responsible for the President’s
safety.
Furthermore, on January 24, the US and
the EU called for the immediate release of the President of Burkina Faso and
the rest of the civilian members of state institutions, as well as paying due
respect for the constitution and the priority of dialogue. French President
Emmanuel Macron also announced his condemnation of the military coup in Burkina
Faso.
The motives
There are several factors explaining the recent
military coup in Burkina Faso, which may be portrayed as follows:
1-
The escalation of tensions within the
military establishment:
Recently, a state of discontent has been
growing within the Burkinabé army, alleging the failure of the ruling regime to
provide them with the necessary supplies to counter the attacks of terrorist
groups. Army members believe that this failure was one of the reasons for the
terrorist attack that targeted the Northern Inata military base last November,
which resulted in the death of more than 50 security personnel.
Tensions within the army exacerbated
after a series of removals of several army leaders carried out by President
Kaboré last November. Tensions further exacerbated with Kaboré’s arrest of
about 12 people one week before the last coup, including lieutenant-colonel
Emmanuel Zoungrana, a senior commander in the army, allegedly on a suspicion of
the involvement of these members in planning internal destabilization. This indicates
that the President had information indicating moves to oust him, but this
information was not sufficient to reveal the identity of the group that carried
out the recent coup.
2-
A growing public anger:
Since taking office in 2015, President
Kaboré pledged to intensify efforts to combat terrorism. Yet, the frequency of
terrorist attacks increased during his rule in an unprecedented manner, which
resulted in the killing of thousands and the displacement of more than 1.5
million people.
Moreover, much of the rural lands went
out of state control, which led to the growth of internal protests against
President Kaboré recently, which amounted to demanding his dismissal. The last
of these demonstrations were those that erupted on January 22 in the capital,
Gadogo and several other cities, where protesters set fire to the headquarters
of the ruling party.
Domestic implications
The recent developments in Burkina Faso have various
implications as follows:
1-
An expected step:
This is the eighth coup in Burkina
Faso's history since its independence from France in 1960. Notably, the coup did
not come as a surprise, but was rather expected for a long time, in light of
the political and security turmoil witnessed in the country recently,
particularly after the terrorist attack that targeted the village of Solhan in
June 2021, which resulted in more than 100 deaths. This sparked widespread
internal anger against the Burkinabé President.
On January 25, French reports indicate
that the French government had been expecting a military coup in Burkina Faso
since last September, as it had been on high alert for several months in
anticipation of such a move.
2-
A public support for the coup:
Ouagadougou witnessed widespread
celebrations by hundreds of people of the army’s control of the country. A
recent survey conducted by the Afrobarometer network showed that about 50% of
the population in Burkina Faso support military rule, versus 31% in the case of
Mali, which will enhance the influence of the new military authorities.
3-
A possible Russian role:
Local reports indicated that recent
weeks have witnessed demands by some members of the army for President Kaboré
to contact the Russian Wagner company to support anti-terrorism efforts. This may
support views that suggest the possibility of an undeclared role for Wagner
mercenaries, given their escalating role in Mali and Central Africa, as well as
Moscow's aspiration to expand its presence in the Sahel and West Africa using
Wagner.
It is worth noting that the
demonstrators who came out in support of the recent military coup had carried
slogans in support of Russia, and demanded a greater role by Moscow to support
the country, and to repeat the Central African and Mali scenario in their
country. This indicates the possibility that the coming period may witness
great Russian involvement in Burkina Faso.
Extensive regional repercussions
The coup in Burkina Faso reveals a number of regional
repercussions, which may be outlined as follows:
1-
Concerns about the return of
coups:
There are growing concerns regarding the
possibility of a return to the stage of successive coups that Burkina Faso had
witnessed during the eighties and nineties of the twentieth century, which may
plunge the country into a spiral of extended instability.
2- The
infection of regional proliferation:
There are concerns about the
continuation of the "snowball" phenomenon in the West African region,
as the Mali model is likely to be repeated in several cases, particularly in
the absence of any strict regional or international position. This view may be
supported by the similarity between the August 2020 Mali coup and the recent
coup in Burkina Faso.
Niger may be a candidate for such a
scenario, specifically as it witnessed a failed coup attempt against President
Mohamed Bazoum in March 2021, a few days after he came to power following the
general elections in the country. Moreover, there are concerns that the
situation may worsen in Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire.
3- Threatening
the French presence:
On January 24, the French newspaper La
Croix warned of the future of the French presence in the African Sahel. The
report indicated that the current French presence in Burkina Faso is limited to
a group of 350 special forces soldiers, whose mission is limited to launching
strikes against terrorist elements.
The report ruled out the intervention of
these members to secure the Burkinabé President, similar to the intervention of
these forces in 2014 when they provided a safe exit for former president,
Blaise Compaoré, since any uncalculated intervention by Paris would threaten
the lines of convoys supplying its forces at the Gao base in Mali and the
Ménaka base in Niger, specifically in light of the growing public anger against
the French presence in the West African region as a whole.
On the other hand, President Macron is
avoiding taking any steps in the Sahel region during the current period, only
three months prior to the presidential elections. Furthermore, the recent coup
in Burkina Faso represents a new setback for the French presence in the Sahel,
opening the door to the rising Russian influence to fill the new void in
Ouagadougou.
Conversely, the current developments in
Mali and Burkina Faso may prompt the European countries to reconsider their
continuity in the region through the Takuba Task Force. Notably, in
mid-January, Sweden had announced the termination of its participation in these
forces.
Recent developments in Burkina Faso reveal the
precarious security situation in West Africa, as well as the increasing
possibilities of this scenario being repeated in other countries. Although
Burkina Faso may be subjected to regional or international sanctions during the
coming period, the great public support for the military leaders who carried
out the coup may enhance the influence of the transitional authorities, and may
pave the way for a possible rapprochement with Moscow during the upcoming
period.