The appointment of Luigi Di Maio, former Italian Foreign Minister, as the European Union's Special Representative to the Gulf region reflects a reaffirmation of the international community’s conviction that has solidified in recent years. This conviction recognizes the Gulf Cooperation Council countries' rightful claim to special and distinct attention from major global powers.
This conviction is well-founded because the Gulf countries have demonstrated their significance and pivotal role in addressing global issues, confronting challenges, and engaging in important matters, both regionally and globally. This was particularly evident during the Russo-Ukrainian War outbreak in February 2022. Unlike the Gulf's relationship with the United States, which has experienced fluctuations due to American indecisive policies in the region, European-Gulf relations have remained steady without significant divergence in viewpoints on various issues. The European bloc's decision to appoint its first-ever special envoy to the Gulf carries substantial political implications, highlighting its commitment to safeguarding shared interests with countries in this region.
The Rise of the Gulf
While the European Union has defined the tasks of its new envoy, aiming to foster a stronger and more comprehensive partnership that reinforces and enriches existing relations, this development highlights the occurrence of strategic shifts in Gulf foreign policy and the nature of the global geopolitical scene. The changing reality has compelled all stakeholders to reevaluate their strategies and reshape their engagements with the Gulf region. Europe recognizes the significance of not merely observing passively and awaiting the outcomes of these transformations. Instead, it has proactively chosen to take the initiative and bolster its relations with the Gulf.
In addition, the European step aligns with a global trend towards fostering partnerships between countries. It is also an evident proof of Europe's realization that Gulf countries have a say in all international developments, particularly in crises and issues directly related to the security, stability, and future of Europe. These issues are not limited to vital matters such as energy, but also encompass various aspects and multiple challenges faced by Europe, such as migration, environment, unemployment, and imbalances within the global system.
The Europeans faced multiple challenges at some point in directing their external compass, as a result of their subjugation to the policies embraced by the US in its rivalry with China and Russia. Then, like the rest of the world, Europe was surprised by the impact of the Gulf-China Summit held in the Saudi capital Riyadh in December 2022, and by the subsequent agreements and understandings. The summit served as a tangible and influential demonstration of the Gulf countries' flexibility in their interactions with all parties and their ability to undertake decisive and unforeseen actions. The global community realized that the post-summit period would not be the same as before, and everyone started betting on striving the support of the six Gulf countries. Perhaps the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the 32nd Arab League Summit in Jeddah on May 19, 2023, also falls into this category, as everyone wants to benefit from the Gulf's international rise.
Therefore, Europe has realized the need for focusing on its own interests and the impossibility of continuing to prioritize the interests and policies of other parties, especially given the Gulf diplomatic activity that has achieved real accomplishments was met with international competition to solidify relations and maximize shared interests with the Gulf region. It became imperative for Europeans to demonstrate their commitment to strong and positive relationships with these emerging countries in international politics, which have become major and definite opportunities for the world to enable it to confront the successive economic challenges and crises it faces.
Undoubtedly, the timing of appointing a European envoy to the Gulf countries holds significant symbolism. The European announcement coincided with the eve of the Arab Summit held in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, there are political indicators that the outcomes of this summit qualify Arab countries, as a bloc, led by the Gulf, to play a major role not only in the Middle East but also in the world, especially after the historic agreement to restore relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran under Chinese sponsorship. Consequently, the regional landscape post the Jeddah summit is expected to transcend traditional obstacles, prioritizing common interests for the people of the region, which has long endured political turmoil stemming from its association with the policies of major powers. Presently, the Gulf has adopted an inclusive approach through strategic partnerships, embracing the principle of a "win-win situation."
Three Implications
This European convergence with the Arabian Gulf carries three significant implications that extend beyond the bilateral relationship between the Gulf and Europe. These implications can be summarized as follows:
1- Expanding alliances and narrowing differences:
This goal was reaffirmed at the "Al-Ula Summit" in 2021, where Arab reconciliation with Qatar took place, and marked the beginning of Gulf-Gulf and Gulf-Arab coordination. The Gulf countries successfully achieved two goals: first, creating a kind of balance in their relations with each other, and second, stimulating other Arab and even African countries to reevaluate their alliances and move beyond the confines of their relationships with the West. This encouraged many countries, and more clearly China, India and France, to develop their relations with these states. Undoubtedly, this raised concerns and prompted reassessments among Europeans.
By freeing themselves, to a large extent, from the pressures of major powers and breaking the bonds of traditional alliances, these countries have compelled the United States, in particular, to reconsider its policy in the Middle East. This has prompted the Europeans to also seek to loosen their ties, even to some extent, with US positions that may undermine their own interests. In April last year, French President Emmanuel Macron visited China, seeking Beijing’s mediation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
A strategic Gulf vision for engaging with various parties has emerged, as Gulf countries, in their economic and investment relations, have diversified beyond sole reliance on European or Western states. Their role and influence have surpassed that of the European countries. Consequently, certain countries are no longer the sole option under the new Gulf approach. Gulf countries have made their way into some issues that were previously areas of convergence between Western and Gulf positions. These include the Iranian crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, along with the Palestinian issue.
2- US Flexible Stance:
The decline in Gulf-American relations does not necessarily mean that the European approach towards the Gulf was solely driven by European interests. It may have been encouraged by the United States’ willingness to balance the growing Asian openness to Gulf countries. Therefore, the appointment of a European envoy to the Gulf does not necessarily indicate a European divergence from the American stance in this context. Rather, it indicates that the European step does not conflict with American stances, because European countries now see the Gulf as an alternative source to Russian gas, especially in light of the US rejection of Europe’s continued imports of Russian gas
There are also independent European initiatives towards Gulf countries. In addition to France and President Macron's clear interest in the Gulf, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was keen to visit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in September 2022. Subsequently, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, made a dedicated visit to the United Arab Emirates in March 2023. Both visits aimed to discuss energy collaborations and explore opportunities to boost trade.
Additionally, Europeans made independent initiatives towards Gulf countries. In addition to France and President Macron's clear interest in the Gulf, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was keen to visit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in September 2022. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni followed suit and made a special visit to the United Arab Emirates in March 2023. Both visits aimed to discuss energy issues and ways of boosting trade relations.
Although Europe is known for its tendency to take gradual steps and refrain from initiating new moves towards the Middle East and the Gulf, the initiative to appoint a European envoy to the Gulf indicates the Europeans' desire to break free from being reactive to Washington's actions and initiatives. Regardless of whether the European move aligns or conflicts with the calculations of the United States, what is evident now is that Europe is inclined towards independent engagement that responds to the new Gulf policies.
3- Gulf’s remarkable political and economic success:
The success achieved by the Gulf's political and economic powerhouse, represented by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, was manifested in the establishment of the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council in 2018. Later on, they were joined by an active role of Arab countries whose policies align with those pursued by Gulf politics, such as Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. These countries have taken initiatives and unified stances on significant issues, including the formation of a unified Arab stance on the Ukrainian war, as well as the response to US attempts to undermine the positions of OPEC countries that refused to compensate for the shortfall in Russian oil production.
The Gulf's success in foreign relations was not limited to diplomacy but went beyond to include the economy. Despite all the crises and financial difficulties that the world has faced, Gulf countries have maintained their developmental progress, which set an international role model that others seek to emulate, benefit from, and positively interact with.
Given this context, the new European step comes as a kind of response to the Gulf's diversification of their alliances. It also represents Europe’s liberation from the traditional dependency on Washington, distancing the ‘Old Continent’ from the predicaments resulting from American adventures. Europe aims to maintain good historical relations with the Gulf while realizing the necessity of building a stronger future and a deeper and more stable partnership that aligns with the transformations undertaken by Gulf countries and the new rules they have established to manage their external relations with the rest of the world.
Therefore, it is crucial for Gulf countries to recognize the potential for the European envoy to also serve as a Gulf envoy, facilitating an ongoing and open channel of communication. This would involve keeping the envoy informed about the Gulf's previous actions and positions, allowing Europe to better understand the Gulf's perspective on various issues. By doing so, mutual coordination can be fostered between the two powerful regional blocs, facilitating a deeper understanding and cooperation.
