Tensions broke out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in January 2023 after an exchange of accusations of non-compliance with their peace agreement signed in the Angolan capital Luanda in November 2022. The development came after Kinshasa announced that it uses private military firms to counter growing security threats. Kigali regarded this move as a declaration of war.
Exchange of Accusations
Despite diplomatic and regional mediation efforts, by Kenya and Angola in particular, to ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, escalation between the two African states revived. The recent developments can be outlined as follows:
1- DRC accuses Rwanda and the March 23 Movement:
The Foreign Minister of the DRC, Christophe Lutundula, accused Rwanda and the March 23 Movement (M23), backed by Kigali, of violating the peace deal signed in the Angolan capital in November 2022. Lutundula noted that the rebel movement did not comply with the provisions of withdrawal from areas under its control in the eastern DRC that were agreed on in January 2023, thus preventing troops of the East African Community from deploying. Moreover, Lutundula warned that his country is willing to deploy “all means” to safeguard its territorial integrity.
On the other hand, the M23 announced withdrawal from Kibumba by the end of December 2022 before it pulled out its troops from Rugumbo in early January 2023 and showed willingness to hand over other areas. The rebel movement also accused Kinshasa of not complying with the Luanda agreement, regarding, in particular, the disarming of armed local and foreign groups. The President of the DRC questioned the credibility of this narrative, saying that the rebel movement is only pretending to be withdrawing and that they are redeploying their troops in other areas.
Moreover, the DRC has accused the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, of attempting to take advantage of Congolese refugees and displaced persons for political purposes after Kagame announced that his country could not take more refugees from the DRC. Kinshasa said the Rwandan president’s statements are aimed at drawing diverting the international community’s attention away from the involvement of Kigali and the rebel March 23 Movement in violations in eastern Congo, including in the recent massacre in the village of Kishishe, where more than 130 civilians were murdered in late November 2022.
2- Rwanda criticizing DRC’s use of foreign mercenaries:
Rwanda condemned the DRC’s use of foreign mercenary fighters in the current conflict east of the country. An official statement said these movements pose direct threats to Kigali and accused Kinshasa of sabre-rattling while showing no willingness to achieve peace in the region and planning to withdraw from regional agreements reached recently through mediation by both Kenya and Angola. Rwanda’s statement also noted that the DRC’s use of foreign mercenaries is regarded as a declaration of war.
In the recent escalation between the two countries, Rwanda’s Ministry of Defense, on January 25, 2023, said that Rwandan forces fired at a Sukhoi-25 fighter jet from the Democratic Republic of Congo after it violated Rwanda’s airspace for the third time in recent months.
In response, the DCR denied Rwanda’s accusation and even accused Rwanda of firing at the Congolese aircraft while flying within Congolese territory en route to the Goma International Airport inside the Congolese territory, and described the shooting a deliberate act of aggression that amounts to an act of war.
Significant Implications
The renewed escalation of tensions between Rwanda and the DRC has important implications that can be outlined as follows:
1- Hiring European military firms:
President of the DRC Felix Tshisekedi, on January 20, 2023, on the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, said that Congo hired Bulgarian military firm Agemira to support the government’s efforts to reinforce security and stability in the east of the country. Spokesman of the Congolese government, Patrick Muyaya, explained that the firm is one of two groups doing aircraft maintenance and training for the army.
Western media reported that hundreds of Bulgarian and Romanian armed personnel clad in Congolese military uniforms arrived at Hotel Mbiza in Goma, the capital city of the DRC, in December last year. A report by the United Nations in late 2022 noted that foreign mercenaries from Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Belarus were already in the DRC.
2- Concerns over the Russian mercenary group Wagner:
Western countries have concerns over the DRC’s potential use of the Russian private paramilitary group Wagner to reinforce its positions against threats posed by terrorists and the March 23 Movement. The concerns arise from a mistaken belief by analysts that mercenaries from Eastern Europe are, in fact, Wagner operatives. A report by Germany’s news channel Deutsche Welle failed to confirm the presence of Wagner mercenaries in the DRC. In August 2022, Defense Minister Gilbert Kabanda was invited to a security conference in Moscow, where he praised Russia’s support. Moreover, it should be noted that a majority of the Congolese army’s fighters are old Russian-made aircraft.
3- Rwanda’s concern over refugee flow:
The current escalation between the DRC and Rwanda reflects Kigalai’s deepening concerns over the potential consequences of refugee flow where. Rwanda has already received more than 75000 Congolese refugees who escaped the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo, and more refugees arrive daily in the host country. All the while, the DRC keeps silent about the issue and does not even recognize the refugees. Moreover, it is unwilling to facilitate their return to their home country.
Regional and International Intervention
The consequences of the conflict oscillating between escalation and de-escalation appear to be partially resulting from foreign interference, which can be outlined as follows:
1- Potential mediation by the US and Qatar:
On January 26, 2022, Qatar announced that it was making efforts to bring together the leaders of Rwanda and Congo in an attempt to reach a comprehensive peace agreement that would end the current escalation of tensions between the two countries. Qatar continued to make the effort despite failure to bring the two leaders together on January 23, after the DRC’s leader Felix Tshisekedi, refused to attend the meeting. Doha is believed to be working on setting a new date for the summit meeting.
Western reports indicated that Doha’s moves are part of joint mediation efforts with the US to renew compliance with the Luanda agreement. Both the US and Qatar have already held talks with parties to the conflict in an attempt to reach a settlement. Moreover, Doha invited Angola, Burundi, and Kenya to the summit scheduled for January 23 and is expected to invite them to any future summit in Doha. The aim is to reach a comprehensive deal reinforced by wide regional participation to ensure its success.
2- Turkey’s military involvement:
A Turkish military aircraft landed in Goma and delivered donated weapons and equipment to bolster the DRC’s defense capabilities against armed groups and rebels. Turkey’s donation is part of Ankara’s efforts to find more foreign markets for its defense industry. Moreover, Western reports did not rule out the possibility of Turkey sending foreign fighters to support the Congolese army. The effort would be one of Ankara’s ways to reinforce its presence in Kinshasa.
3- The DRC Preparing for expelling East African Community’s troops: Mass demonstrations broke out in several cities in the DRC in protest of the East African Community’s military force deployed in the east of the DRC to help enforce security and stability in the restive area. The protestors condemned the role of the regional troops citing the experience of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), which failed to make any progress. That is why protestors demand the East African Community’s troops pull out from the DRC. Rwanda accused the Congolese government of being behind the protests to be able to withdraw from the peace process in Luanda and Nairobi. The move threatens to aggravate the current tensions further.
In conclusion, there are growing concerns that current tensions would further escalate between Rwanda and Congo after Kinshasa used foreign mercenaries, a move that terrorist groups might well use to reinforce its positions in the natural resources-rich eastern region of the DRC, especially amid a recent upsurge of attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) which has ties with ISIS. Consequently, there is a likelihood of further escalation should diplomatic efforts fail to make a breakthrough that paves the way to a comprehensive agreement between Rwanda and the DRC.
