Over recent months, Ethiopia witnessed an escalation of threats on various fronts both at home and abroad, even after the Ethiopian federal government sat at the negotiating table with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). In the meantime, US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa (SEHOA) Mike Hammer visited Ethiopia in late July to hold talks about efforts to establish permanent peace between the two warring parties.
Compound crises
Ethiopia is facing several security crises and challenges that can be outlined as follows:
1- Unresolved internal conflicts:
The Ethiopian state is facing several internal crises and attempts to resolve them continue to be hindered by significant challenges. These are:
a) Escalating tensions in Oromia: A potential crisis is looming after more than 260 people from the Amhara ethnic minority group were killed in Oromia, in western Ethiopia, reportedly at the hands of the Oromo Liberation Army.
The Gambella Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army launched a joint offensive to liberate Gambella in mid-June. Later in early July, some 160 people were killed and the Oromo Liberation Army was, once again, held responsible. But the group denied the accusation and even accused the federal government and militant groups in Amhara of the killings.
b) Faltering talks between Addis Ababa and the Tigray: On August 17, the Ethiopian government announced that it handed a peace proposal to the African Union to resolve the conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Additionally, Addis Ababa formed a peace committee to prepare for negotiations.
Spokesperson for the TPLF Getachew Reda took to twitter to say that “the so-called Peace Committee established by the [Abiy government] is engaged in its usual game of obfuscation to hoodwink the international community while its forces are actively provoking our forces in various fronts.” But Addis Ababa, on August 18, accused the TPLF of rejecting the peace talks, a sign of a potential flare-up of the conflict between the two sides.
It should be noted that deterioration of the humanitarian and economic situation may force both sides to return to negotiations. The Tigray region is suffering from a lack of critical services such as communications, power and banking. Additionally, some 5 million people in the region are in dire need of food and medicine, while some 116000 children suffer from acute malnutrition.
On the other side, the Ethiopian government is facing severe economic crises as inflation went up to 37% in April. In early 2022, the United Nations warned that millions of Ethiopians are in need of emergency aid. Addis Ababa, which is aware of the dire situation recognizes the importance of resuming peace efforts so as to receive international aid and attract foreign investments to be able to find a way out of the economic crisis.
2- Ongoing border conflicts:
Ethiopia continues to face crises over the border with several neighbors. These can be detailed as follows:
a) Border crisis with Sudan: The border between Ethiopia and Sudan witnessed an escalation of tensions between the two countries after eight Sudanese prisoners of war were executed in the al-Fashaga district in June. The development triggered an exchange or artillery fire between the two countries across the border.
In a further escalation, Sudan called its ambassador to Ethiopia for consultation, while Ethiopia summoned the Sudanese envoy to express its condemnation of the killings as Addis Ababa denied responsibility for the executions.
The border conflict is, however, unlikely to develop into an all-out war between the two countries because they are already facing intense internal crises and a deteriorating economic situation. This is evidenced in a tweet he wrote in Arabic on June 29 by Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed in which he emphasized that despite tensions with Sudan, issues should be resolved through cooperation and solidarity. His statement is a sign that Ethiopia is not prepared to engage in border conflicts in the coming period.
b) Al-Shabab’s penetration of Ethiopia's border: Tensions flared up on the border between Ethiopia and Somalia, and in the Ogaden region, into which the al-Shabab group sent 500 militants to carry out terror attacks inside the region. Despite reassurances from President of the region, Mustafa Muhumed Omer, that the confrontations came to a close after some 200 terrorists were killed, the Ethiopian forces continued to carry out airstrikes on the border with Somalia up to late July against al-Shabab militants. The developments reveal the intensity of the terror group’s attack.
An al-Shabaab leader, Fuad Mohamed Khalaf, aka Shongole, vowed to carry out more attacks on Ethiopia and reassured that the group will achieve victory. The threats mean that al-Shabab may continue to keep focus on carrying out attacks inside Ethiopia. The latest attack appears to be an attempt by al-Shabab to establish presence inside Ethiopia’s territory and find followers in the region where the population is predominantly ethnic Somalis.
Ethiopian officials announced the establishment of a buffer zone inside Somalia, a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty that Moghadishu protested. It should be noted that the disputed Ogaden region is now administered by Ethiopia. On January 23, the Somali government rescinded a decision it made in 2017 that designated the Ogaden Liberation Front as a terrorist organization, a sign that conflict between the two countries over the region can potentially flare up again.
3- A severe humanitarian crisis:
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that up to July 19, some 4308 trucks carrying aid arrived in Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, but the organization said that the aid was still not enough.
The United Nations World Food Program confirmed that more than 9 million people there are in need of humanitarian assistance.
On the other side, areas seized by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) over the past year are still deprived of essential services such as electricity, communications and banking services. The situation further worsened by the worst drought to hit the region in four decades, which killed millions of livestock and further worsened malnutrition among the population.
Moreover, more than 2.5 million people were internally displaced, while some 3000 people escaped every day from Tograry to east Sudan. In early March, about 60,000 Ethiopians were admitted to Sudan as refugees.
Pending issues with Tigray
The crisis over negotiations between the federal government and the TPLF represents a major challenge to the Ethiopian government. The following are the main issues between the two sides.
1- Selecting a mediator for the talks:
Choosing a place and a mediator for the peace talks represents a major point of disagreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
The TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael prefers the Kenyan government while rejecting the African Union envoy, former Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, whom he believes is siding with Addis Ababa. The federal government supports Obasanjo’s role as mediator.
2- Restoring control over Western Tigray:
On June 15, Gebremichael announced the Tigray’s main demands, including resorting control on western Tigray. The Amhara forces, allied with the Ethiopian government, seized control of western Tigray in November 2020 and claimed the region as their historical land. Their offensive displaced thousands of the population of Tigray from their homes.
Moreover, Eritrea deployed troops in this region to train soldiers of the allied Amhara forces. It should be noted that any moves made by the federal government to reinforce the Amhara’s security and administrative control on the region will be countered by fierce opposition from the Tigray and trigger fresh armed confrontations.
3- Recognition of the Tigrary forces:
The Tigray region also wants to maintain the presence of its own military forces, which fought against the federal government. Yet, Addis Ababa may insist that the TPLF downsize its military forces because they represent an existing threat to the federal government and the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.
4- Holding a referendum on Tigray’s secession:
Leader of the TPLF Debretsion Gebremichael reiterated that the Tigray demands a referendum be held on separation from Ethiopia, as a constitutional right that can be given if the federal government recognized his administration as a legitimate regional authority. Addis Ababa is unlikely, however, to approve a proposed referendum. A spokesperson of the federal Ethiopian government, on June 2, emphasized that the territorial integrity of Ethiopia is non-negotiable.
In conclusion, despite a succession of internal and external crises facing Ethiopia over the past months, the political situation in the country is dominated by faltering and a deadlock preventing any significant progress towards resolving the issue of the Tigray region. To date, there are no signs that there are radical solutions to this crisis in the near future, while other crises are likely to break out.
