Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
The Zanzibar Talks
The conflict between Addis Ababa and the Oromo Liberation Army broke out in the mid-1970s on the pretext that the Ethiopian government marginalized the Oromo people, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia. This conflict has left hundreds of people dead and tens of thousands of civilians displaced. The two sides have now announced the start of their direct talks in an attempt to attain a political agreement to end the conflict. The pillars of the talks, hosted on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar, can be outlined as follows:
1. Mutual confidence-building attempt:
The Oromo comprise around 40% of Ethiopia’s total population and have suffered from severe marginalization over the past decades due to policies embraced by successive Ethiopian governments. This pushed the Oromo to revolt in October 2016 against former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s government. As a result, Desalegn resigned, and a new government was formed by Abiy Ahmed, who belongs to the Oromo ethnic group. This raised hopes of improving their conditions, especially after the return of the Oromo Liberation Front from exile in 2018. However, protests within the Oromo community resumed in June 2020 after accusations were made against Abiy Ahmed’s government for not introducing enough reforms to address the marginalization suffered by the Oromo community. This reinforced a state of mutual distrust between the Oromo and the Ethiopian federal government.
The current talks aim to try to enhance mutual trust between the two parties. Previous attempts have been made to settle their ongoing conflict, including in 1992 and 2018. However, these efforts failed to reach sustainable agreements, leading some Oromo factions to take up arms against the Ethiopian government.
2. A first round of faltering negotiations:
The first round of negotiations between representatives of the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army, which lasted until April 27, 2023, did not yield any solid outcome that would lead to ending the violent unrest within the Oromia region. Reports indicated that Oromo representatives insisted on their demands of not surrendering their weapons to the federal government and their assertion of international guarantees for any agreement to be reached.
The reactions at home and abroad varied regarding the Ethiopian government’s move to negotiate with the Oromo Liberation Army. While some parties, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and some Western powers, considered it a positive step towards resolving the conflict, others, such as the US House Committee on Ethiopian Affairs, called for guarantees from the Oromo army to cease violence before entering into final negotiations.
3. Mediation by Kenya and Norway:
This marks the Ethiopian government’s first announcement of its direct engagement in negotiations with the Oromo Liberation Army. The talks are taking place in Tanzania under the mediation of Kenya and Norway, as the Oromo Liberation Army had stipulated the participation of a third-party mediator to agree to participate in these negotiations. Therefore, Kenya has taken on the role of mediator with logistical support from Norway, while Zanzibar is hosting the peace talks. Reports also indicate that the United States and the European Union have expressed their readiness to negotiate between the conflicting parties to support the chances of reaching a final peace agreement.
Minimizing Internal Crises
The ongoing peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army come as part of Abiy Ahmed’s efforts to minimize the internal crises and conflicts that Addis Ababa is facing, which can be summarized as follows:
1. A shift in Abiy Ahmed’s stance:
The start of negotiations between the Oromo Liberation Army and the Ethiopian government marks a significant shift in the latter’s position. Over the past years, it had always rejected any talks with the army it considered a rebel group. This shift can be attributed to the efforts made by Abiy Ahmed’s government to defuse crises and conflicts within Ethiopia, strengthen its domestic authority, and ensure the continuation of Western support for his government.
2. Repeat the Tigray Peace Deal:
Despite the traditional and historical tensions between the Oromo and Tigray ethnic groups, the Oromo Liberation Army allied with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front during the civil war in which they fought against the Ethiopian government for two years. However, it seems that the peace agreement signed between Addis Ababa and the Tigray Front at the end of 2022 has motivated the Oromo army to enter into negotiations with the government of Abiy Ahmed to replicate the experience of the Tigray peace agreement.
According to estimates, the composition of the government delegation participating in the talks in Tanzania is a positive indicator that these negotiations can lead to signing an agreement with the Oromo Liberation Army. The government delegation includes Minister of Justice Gedion Timothewos and the adviser to the Ethiopian Prime Minister for National Security Affairs, Redwan Hussein, both of whom led talks with the Tigray Liberation Front.
3- Crafting the relationship with the Amhara and the Orthodox Church:
The Amhara ethnic group and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church are the most prominent allies of the Ethiopian government. Moreover, their relationship with Abiy Ahmed has been affected recently, especially after the peace agreement with the Tigray Liberation Front was signed. The Amhara rejected the Ethiopian government’s efforts to disarm its forces, while the Church believes that the Ethiopian prime minister seeks to reduce its influence. Ahmed seems to be seeking to strengthen his position by ending the traditional disputes with his opponents.
Yet, this does not mean the Ethiopian prime minister is prepared to escalate against the Amhara or the Orthodox Church. However, he may be seeking to pressure them to make concessions by showing greater rapprochement with his former opponents. This may explain the recent decrease in the intensity of armed confrontations in the Amhara region after the region witnessed a sharp escalation between government forces and Amhara forces over the issue of disarming the ethnic group and efforts to reduce the escalation against the Church.
Possible Repercussions
Several potential repercussions may arise from the ongoing negotiations between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army, which can be presented as follows:
1. Preliminary talks for comprehensive negotiations:
The Tanzania talks are a prelude to more comprehensive negotiations between the conflicting parties. They are expected to occur shortly, as Oromo Liberation Army spokesman Odaa Tarbii indicated. The talks in Tanzania were based on preconditions that paved the way toward comprehensive negotiations. The negotiations will likely witness broader involvement by some international powers, especially the United States, the European Union, and IGAD, who would provide international guarantees for the expected peace agreement between the parties.
2. Integrating armed groups into the army:
The ongoing negotiations between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army may contribute to supporting Addis Ababa’s efforts to integrate armed militias into the federal army, including the Oromo Liberation Army. This is particularly important because the intensity of violence by Oromo forces has noticeably increased in recent times, despite a lack of organization and sufficient weapons, making them incapable of posing a serious threat to the Ethiopian government.
On the other hand, reaching a final agreement with the Oromo Liberation Army, if achieved, will strengthen the Ethiopian government’s influence in confrontations against other armed groups, especially those linked to the Amhara ethnic group, which may also push them to negotiate with Addis Ababa about disarmament in exchange for sufficient guarantees from Abiy Ahmed’s government. This means that the efforts being made by Addis Ababa to disarm and integrate the armed groups into the federal forces are still facing several challenges.
3. Existing challenges:
These challenges are primarily related to ethnic conflicts, including disputes over demarcating boundaries between the country’s regions, and the dilemma of perceived marginalization of some ethnic groups by the central government, not to mention the lack of trust in the Ethiopian government, which was reflected in the refusal of the Oromo Liberation Army to disarm in 2018 based on doubts about the credibility of the peace promises made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
On the other hand, the Oromo Liberation Army maintains a wide presence within the Oromia region, consisting of four sub-leaderships distributed across the region in the north, south, east, and west. Together, these sub-leaderships form a central high leadership headed by Jala Maro. This presence poses a challenge to the Ethiopian army and the federal security apparatus, especially given the vast expanse of the Oromia region. Moreover, this presence opens up the possibility of some factions splitting away if they object to the content of any agreement reached.
In conclusion, the negotiations in Tanzania represent a positive step. However, the peace process between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army remains highly fragile, given the multiple demands of the rebel group, which issued a 14-page statement in January 2023 outlining these demands, including the right to self-determination, economic sovereignty for the Oromo, and the protection of their rights from federal government domination. The lack of trust further complicates efforts to achieve a permanent peace agreement. On the other hand, Western support, particularly from the United States, makes the possibility of reaching such an agreement viable.
