The return of Saad Hariri to Lebanon, on November 21, 2017, after 18 days of his resignation opens a new chapter in the Lebanese crisis. Despite Hariri’s announcement that he would reconsider his resignation at the request of President Michel Aoun, internal tensions and international pressures still exist due to the growing regional role of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been a source of eminent threats to the security of Arab states and has constantly violated the principle of “disassociation,” a policy adopted by Hariri to fortify Lebanon against the intricacies of the regional situations.
Pre-return Contexts
Prior to rescinding his resignation, supporters of Hariri insisted on several demands, all of which stress the need to curtail the regional and domestic influence of Hezbollah. In his televised interview from Riyadh on November 12, 2017, Saad Hariri reiterated those demands. He condemned the missile that was launched towards Saudi Arabia from Yemen, asserting his opposition to the “presence of any Lebanese component in Yemen.”
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah denied those accusations on November 20, in a televised speech. Nasrallah stated that ““I categorically deny any role of any member of Hezbollah in launching this missile,” said Sayyed Nasrallah. His eminence indicated that the group has not sent ballistic missiles, advanced weapons “or even a pistol” to Yemen, Bahrain, or Kuwait."
In this vein, some states have sought to mediate and defuse the crisis such as France. The French president Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia and stressed the importance of Lebanon’s stability and invited Saad Hariri to an official visit to France in tandem with opening French communication channels with Tehran.
For its part, the Arab states called for an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers on November 19, in Cairo, which issued an unprecedented statement condemning Iran’s intervention in the affairs of Arab countries, considering the launch of an Iranian-made missile towards Riyadh “a threat to Arab national security.” It has further accused Hezbollah of “supporting terrorism and extremist groups in Arab countries with advanced weapons and ballistic missiles,” demanding Hezbollah “to stop spreading extremism and sectarianism, interference in the internal affairs of states and stop providing any support for terrorism and terrorists in its regional environment”. In addition, a mandate was issued to the Arab delegations in the UN to provide the president of the Security Council with details about the Iranian violations of international resolutions 2216 and 2231.
At home, internal tensions in Lebanon headed towards calm, in particular when Saad Hariri put his resignation on hold if Hezbollah pledges to abide by the principle of disassociation not in words, but in deeds and to give it due regard as he stated in his televised interview on November 12, where he said that he would return to Lebanon within few days.
Motives for Hariri’s Return
With Hariri’s visit to France on November 18, it was no longer possible for the March 8 Alliance to continue spreading rumors about the circumstances surrounding his resignation, especially since Hariri tweeted on his official Twitter account on November 17, saying that he was holding consultations on the future situation in Lebanon and its relationship with its Arab neighborhood, and all that is rumored remains rumors.
Consultations between Hariri and Macron seem to have concluded that containing the crisis necessitates taking effective steps in Lebanon, which explains Hariri’s announcement from the courtyard of the Elysee Palace in Paris, in which he specified the date of his return to Lebanon and that he will take part in the national independence celebrations on November 22 and that his political positions will be declared from there. This came amidst internal signals indicating willingness to discuss the reasons for his resignation.
The clarity of regional demands, the availability of acceptable mediators from both sides of the crisis, the willingness to internally discuss the reasons for resignation and the eagerness of international actors to ease tensions in Lebanon, have encouraged Hariri to return to Lebanon. Several statements and remarks by the ministries of foreign affairs of the major powers, such as the US, Britain and France, viewed Saad Hariri as a trusted partner and that his presence in Lebanon is in the interest of political stability in the country.
Future Scenarios
According to some analysts, Hariri’s resignation sounded the alarm against the growing influence of Hezbollah at the expense of the Lebanese state and its attempts to threaten regional security. After Hariri’s announcement to put his resignation on hold, the prospects for instability still exist and can be illustrated as follows:
1- Political consultations: the Lebanese president may hold a rapid round of consultations with all parties and political actors to come with a new mechanism to implement the principle of “disassociation.” Such consultations will allow him to reach a formula, to be adopted by the Lebanese state and to be accepted by Hezbollah, where the latter pledges not to threaten the Arab states. This formula has delayed the resignation, according to Hariri’s remarks on November 22, after the meeting with the Lebanese president.
2- Caretaker government: If the consultations fail and Hezbollah announces that it will not be bound by the principle of disassociation, Hariri is expected to proceed with his resignation. This would initiate the process of forming a new Lebanese government, which may take a long period of time, thereby the resigned government would remain as a caretaker government until the next parliamentary election in May 2018.
3- Application of “disassociation”: The resignations of governments in Lebanon have been linked to the crises sparked by Hezbollah. The ministers of Hezbollah and their allies had previously resigned from the national unity government in 2011, bringing down the government. The head of government, Najib Mikati, resigned in 2013 as he objected to Hezbollah’s setting the ground for entry into Syria. The situation has not been very different with regard to the protest resignation of Hariri in objection to Hezbollah’s regional expansion. Restraining Hezbollah may lead to greater government stability in Lebanon.
This highlights the need to reconsider the principle of “disassociation” issued in the “Baabda declaration” in June 2012 after the consultations conducted by the national parties at that time. Article 12 of the declaration states that:
“Lebanon should eschew block politics and regional and international conflicts. It should seek to avoid the negative repercussions of regional tensions and crises in order to preserve its own paramount interest, national unity and civil peace, except where the matter concerns resolutions of international legitimacy, Arab consensus or the rightful Palestinian cause, including the right of Palestinian refugees return to their land and homes rather than being integrated.”
Despite that Hezbollah has accepted it at that time, its involvement in the Syrian conflict steered it away later, especially as the balance of power in Syria changed. In the coming period, anti-Hezbollah forces will seek to assert this principle, to cover all conflicts in which Iran is a party, or regional differences in general.
Overall, it can be argued that Lebanon is a very special country, to which the words of Arend Lijphart would apply when talking about consensus democracy and the way in which pluralistic societies are governed, the need for the ruling elites to tolerate each other and the need to reach settlements, when political crises occur. This particularity of Lebanon was highlighted by the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul-Gheit, on his recent visit to Lebanon and in his meetings with the Lebanese officials. However, this does not mean allowing some Lebanese actors to exploit this particularity to destabilize the security of the Arab States.
