After months of speculation about the resignation of Ali Shamkhani, Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, it was confirmed on May 21, 2023, by the "Noor News" agency, which is affiliated with the council, that Shamkhani had indeed stepped down. The agency quoted a line attributed to the 16th-century Iranian poet Mohtasham Kashani, which Shamkhani shared on his Twitter account. The line translates to: "The words spoken behind the veil were said symbolically. And in the end, he understood the signs and departed," indicating Shamkhani's intention to resign permanently.

On May 22, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi appointed General Ali Akbar Ahmadian as the new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, succeeding Shamkhani. Furthermore, the following day, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed Shamkhani as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and as his own political advisor.

Powers of the Supreme National Security Council

The powers, functions, and operational mechanisms of Iran's Supreme National Security Council are defined in Article 176 of the Iranian Constitution. The Council is chaired by the President of the Republic, who appoints the Secretary-General. The Secretary-General is responsible for managing the Council's Secretariat, overseeing the proper implementation of its decisions, and handling administrative and executive affairs.

Comprised of 13 members, the Council includes the heads of the three branches of government, the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, the official in charge of planning and budgeting, two representatives appointed by the supreme leader, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Interior, the Minister of Intelligence, a minister relevant to the subject matter, as well as the commanders of the army and the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Council's primary role is to establish Iran's defense and security policies within the framework of the general policies set by the supreme leader. It also coordinates political, security, social, cultural, and economic activities pertaining to defense and security plans. The decisions of the Council only come into effect after receiving approval from the supreme leader.

Pressing Motives

The resignation of Shamkhani and his replacement by Ahmadian did not follow the usual and customary procedures within the Iranian power hierarchy. Shamkhani's predecessor, Said Jalili, was dismissed when former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took office in 2013. It is also worth noting that Rouhani himself, who was then the Secretary of the Council, did not leave the position until former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad assumed power in 2005.

The removal of Shamkhani can be attributed to the following prominent motives:

1.     Pressure from conservatives:

Shamkhani is associated with the reformist camp and has close relationships with the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is the only prominent official who retained his position since the presidency of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, while other figures from that era were removed. Shamkhani played a key role in improving relations between Iran and Arab countries, leveraging his Arab heritage and expertise in handling such matters. His efforts resulted in the historic agreement signed with Saudi Arabia in Beijing on March 10, 2023, which paved the way for the restoration of relations with Riyadh. Similar agreements were also signed with the UAE and Iraq.

However, these endeavours caused concerns among a faction of conservatives who feared that the Iranian-Arab rapprochement would be associated with Shamkhani and the reformist camp. The reformist camp has consistently accused conservatives of causing the divide between Iran and Arab countries. Furthermore, they alleged that Shamkhani issued orders to extremists who stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad in 2016, leading to the severing of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

2.     Empowering the second generation of the Revolutionary Guard:

Another motive behind Shamkhani's removal is the empowerment of the second generation of the Revolutionary Guard. Shamkhani is considered one of the founding members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. He played a pivotal role in establishing and leading the Guards' branch in the southwestern province of Khuzestan. Later, he held joint command over the naval forces of both the Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Iranian Army. With Shamkhani's dismissal, the last remaining leader from the founding generation of the Revolutionary Guards has been removed.

The first generation of the Revolutionary Guards focused on defending the revolution, the system, and the state against internal and external threats. Shamkhani's removal signifies the rise of the next generation, who have gained control and expanded their influence within the state institutions and decision-making circles. They have also become involved as partners in various economic sectors.

This mirrors a previous scenario when several leaders from the first generation of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, such as former commanders Yahya Rahim Safavi and Mohsen Rezaee, were also removed from power. Safavi became an advisor to the Supreme Leader, while Rezaee took on the role of an advisor to the president for economic affairs. The assassination of former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 further contributed to this trend. Soleimani's influential position had posed a significant obstacle to the emergence of this new generation. Therefore, the removal of Shamkhani and the appointment of Ahmadian mark the latest episodes in the series of empowering the second generation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

3.     Differences within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

Shamkhani's role as the key driver behind Iran's efforts to normalize relations with neighbouring countries has led to tensions with Iranian diplomats. They view it as an encroachment on their jurisdiction and usurpation of their responsibilities. As a result, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sought to assert its authority by taking on the task of implementing the provisions of those agreements. This was evident in the meeting between Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Beijing on April 6, 2023, and subsequent communications between them. These efforts aimed to reaffirm the essential role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in executing Tehran's foreign policy.

During a meeting between members of the Iranian diplomatic corps and Khamenei on May 20, 2023, which marked the first time in three years that all Iranian ambassadors were invited, some diplomats raised concerns about the appointment of non-diplomats as ambassadors. They expressed their opposition to this practice, sending a direct message to Shamkhani. He had previously pushed for the appointment of his close associate, Saeid Iravani, as Iran's representative to the United Nations and ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Iravani's role would have involved rebuilding the relationship with the Kingdom.

As a result, President Raisi's supporters successfully convinced the supreme leader to dismiss Shamkhani and replace him with Ahmadian, who is seen as a "strategic security and military" figure with no political ambitions. The appointment of Ahmadian aimed to "depoliticize" security considerations and decision-making within the Supreme National Security Council. Khamenei acceded to this perspective and appointed Ahmadian as his representative to the council, granting him voting rights and a direct official communication line with the supreme leader.

4.     Escalation of accusations against Shamkhani:

The execution of Alieza Akbari, former Deputy Minister of Defense of Iran, in January 2023 on charges of spying for British intelligence agencies stirred controversy and provided an opportunity for the conservative faction to undermine Shamkhani. This was due to the fact that Shamkhani was the Minister of Defense during Akbari's tenure as his deputy. A leaked document confirmed a direct connection between Akbari and Shamkhani.

Amidst these accusations, the influential conservative faction known as the "Resistance Front" or "Baydari Front" has repeatedly alleged that Shamkhani and his family were involved in corruption cases. It was claimed that his son-in-law and sons profited from evading US sanctions by owning a shipping company and oil tankers, earning millions of dollars monthly. In a meeting held in January between Khamenei and top security officials, Shamkhani faced direct criticism regarding his sons' extravagant lifestyle, which contrasted sharply with the economic hardships faced by most Iranians due to the decline caused by sanctions. Additionally, Shamkhani himself was accused of exploiting Iran's relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries for personal financial gain.

5.     Criticism of Shamkhani's stance on protests and the Hijab:

Shamkhani faced criticism from conservatives for his handling of the protests that occurred in Iran in mid-September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian, in one of Iran's morality police detention centers. Conservatives accused Shamkhani of failing to effectively manage the protests and negligence for not resorting to violent security measures against the demonstrators. Hamid Rasaee, a former conservative member of the Iranian Consultative Assembly, repeatedly called for Shamkhani's dismissal, citing his inability to suppress the protest movements. Rasaee also held Shamkhani accountable for his reformist tendencies, which he believed aligned with former President Rouhani's inclinations.

In addition, a leaked Iranian document, made public by the media on May 30, 2023, attributed the "failure" to combat the protests in September of the previous year to Shamkhani. The document criticized him for submitting numerous reports on the "acts of rioting" without providing any suggestions for resolving the issues. It also held him responsible for the "failure to address the contradictions, shortcomings, and flaws within the state's intelligence apparatus" as reflected in some of his reports.

On the other hand, Shamkhani holds a different view regarding the issue of the hijab. He believes that the government should prioritize addressing the economic and social problems faced by citizens before imposing laws that mandate women to wear the hijab. This stance contradicts the position of conservatives, who insist on strict enforcement of mandatory hijab laws.

6.     Grooming Mojtaba Khamenei to Succeed his Father:

The exclusion of Shamkhani from his position may indicate a desire to prepare the path for the current supreme leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to assume leadership after his father's passing. The 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shares a strong and trusted relationship with Ahmadian, which may have influenced the Iranian president to change his initial choice of Saeed Jalili, who previously held the position of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council before Shamkhani. Mojtaba Khamenei intervened to block Jalili's appointment, and with his father's approval, General Ahmadian was appointed to this crucial position.

Mixed Repercussions

 The removal of Shamkhani from the political scene in Iran may have implications for several important strategic issues for Tehran, including the following:

1.     Iranian relations with Arab countries:

While Shamkhani played a significant role in engineering Iranian normalization with regional countries, his departure is unlikely to have a major impact on Iran's policy of maintaining calm with Arab nations. Iran has a genuine need and interest in continuing this path. Moreover, the guarantees provided by China through the agreement signed with Saudi Arabia create a risk for any potential Iranian attempt to disengage from its provisions. China holds importance for Iran as a significant economic and political partner. This is evident from Iran's swift appointment of Alireza Enayati as its ambassador to Saudi Arabia immediately after Shamkhani's removal. This move sends a message of reassurance that agreements with Saudi Arabia and other regional countries will remain intact and unaffected.

2.     Nuclear negotiations with the West:

The responsibility for managing nuclear negotiations with the West was transferred from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs when Shamkhani became Secretary of the Council on September 10, 2013. While Shamkhani did not directly participate in the negotiations, he acted as a crucial link between the Iranian supreme leader and the negotiation team, playing a significant role in advancing the talks that resulted in the signing of the historic JCPOA in 2015. However, following the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in May 2018 under the administration of former President Donald Trump, Iran stated its refusal to engage in new nuclear negotiations with the West under any circumstances.

Moreover, it is possible that Iran, through the appointment of Ahmadian, sought to send dual messages to both Washington and the European parties involved in the nuclear agreement. On one hand, it may represent a warning message as Ahmadian is known for advocating the theory of "balance of power," which calls for increasing Iran's deterrent capabilities against threats posed by enemies and adversaries. On the other hand, it aims to break the deadlock in negotiations with the West and convey positive signals in this regard. Foreign Minister Abdollahian affirmed this during a meeting with Iranian diplomats on May 25, 2023, where he mentioned making "good" progress toward the possibility of resuming talks to revive the stalled nuclear deal since September 2022. This progress is being achieved through indirect message exchanges between Iran and the other parties involved in the agreement.

3.     The Iranian Regime taking a more hardline path:

With the absence of Shamkhani, the last prominent reformist figure within the Iranian regime, it is likely that the government will adopt a more hardline stance. This presumption is based on the idea that the regime has become increasingly homogeneous and unified in expressing its hardline ideology, which has been dominant since Ibrahim Raisi assumed power in August 2021. This has led to one of the most rigid systems in Iran since the 1979 revolution. The new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ahmadian, is a prominent leader in the Revolutionary Guard Corps and known for his close relationship with the former commander of the Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani. As a result, the regime may tighten its grip on hardline policies concerning domestic issues related to rights and freedoms, resorting to repressive and violent measures against opposition groups and dissenting voices.

Shamkhani’s Future

Several scenarios can be envisioned for Shemkhani's future within the Iranian political system, as follows:

1.     Seeking to become speaker of the Iranian Parliament:

Shamkhani may follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Ali Larijani, who ran in parliamentary elections and led the legislature for three consecutive terms from 2008 to 2020.

2.     Running for the presidency:

Shamkhani might choose to run in the upcoming presidential elections in 2025 and become a competitor to the current President, Ibrahim Raisi. In this case, Shamkhani could garner support from moderates and reformists as a representative of non-conservative factions. However, he may face obstacles such as being disqualified by the Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting candidates through a qualification process. This action was taken against Ali Larijani in the June 2021 elections. Such circumstances could potentially pave the way for a second term for President Raisi.

3.    Retirement and assuming advisory roles assigned by the Supreme Leader:

Considering Shamkhani's extensive experience in significant decision-making positions throughout his career, it is unlikely that he will retire completely. Instead, he is more likely to continue playing an active role within the Iranian political system, taking on advisory roles assigned by the Supreme Leader rather than stepping back entirely.

In conclusion, Shamkhani's departure from his position can be seen as more of a dismissal rather than a voluntary resignation. While his resignation was not surprising and had been anticipated for some time, it was delayed until he completed the mission he was assigned, which was to finalize agreements for the restoration of relations with Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Despite being viewed as an acceptable figure by these countries due to his Arab origins and experience in negotiations, he was eventually replaced. The impact of Shamkhani's removal on Iran's foreign policy seems to be limited. This is because foreign policy matters, especially strategic ones, are solely within the authority of the supreme leader, and Iranian officials have little room to manoeuvre as their role primarily involves implementing the directives of the supreme leader. As a result, Shamkhani's removal has less significance in Iran's regional and international affairs.