Russian-Turkish relations are undergoing constant escalation since November 24 in the aftermath of Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters' shooting down of a Russian Su-24 attack aircraft on the border with Syria after the aircraft reportedly violated Turkey's airspace and did not heed warnings from the Turkish Armed Forces to leave Turkish airspace.

The Russian military aircraft went down in Syria's northwestern Turkmen town of Bayirbucak, also known as the Turkmen Mountain, in the coastal governorate of Latakia, an area targeted with intense bombing by Russian warplanes and the Syrian regime's armed forces.

Escalation between the two states has had political, economic and military dimensions, especially after failed attempts to ease their tensions. This requires looking into Turkey’s motives for downing the Russian military warplane, the nature of Russian escalation, Turkey's attempts to overcome the sanctions imposed by Russia, as well as the future of relations between the two states.

Turkey's Intentions behind Downing the Russian warplane

Although Turkey insists that it downed the Russian warplane because it violated Turkish airspace, there are a number of objectives that Turkey sought to achieve by the shoot-down. The following stand out as the most important:

• The crash site of the downed Russian warplane is Bayirbucak, a Turkmen majority town northwest of Syria that Turkey continues to defend. Turkey considers the area as an extension of its territory after Turkey lost it to the French occupation in Syria in 1921 when Turkey and the French occupied Syria signed a border demarcation agreement. Therefore any aggression against this area and its Turkmen population always enrages Turkey, and to be more specific, the nationalist Turks.
• Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to boost his popularity at home, and to be more specific, among the nationalists and the Islamists who staged several demonstrations against Russian bombing of Turkmen areas in northwest Syria. His aim was to complete his political plan to amend the constitution and introduce a presidential system, which would give him more powers, through a referendum and not through the parliament where his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lacks the two-third majority needed to change the constitution following the early November 1, 2015 elections where the party succeeded in forming a government alone.
• Providing a fresh start and giving a strong boost to Turkey's policy on the region following the AK Party's win in the November elections on the grounds that Turkey is a pivotal regional power that is in attrition with a major power like Russia, that Turkey is the only state defending Muslim peoples, in general, and the Syrian people in particular, against Russian aggressions.

Nature of Russian Escalation against Turkey

Russia's response to Turkey's shooting down of its attack aircraft had multiple political, economic and military dimensions. At the political level, Russia denied that its warplane violated Turkish airspace and insisted that it crashed four kilometers from the Turkish border after it was hit over Syrian territory. Russia also denied that its warplane received warnings from Turkey's Air Force.

At the time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cancelled a planned trip to the Turkish capital Ankara on November 25, and refused to meet Erdogan on the sidelines of the climate summit in Paris, France. Moreover, Russia accused Turkey and the family of President Erdogan of trading oil with ISIS and supporting terrorist groups using Turkish territory to launch terrorist attacks in Syria and other states.

At the economic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree imposing economic sanctions on Turkey and covering imports from Turkey, the work of Turkish companies in Russia and any Turkish nationals working for Russian companies in 2016. The decree also banned Russian tour firms from selling any tickets to Turkey in 2016 and ended visa-free entry of Turkish nationals to Russia as of January 2016.

The sanctions would negatively impact Turkey’s economy as bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia stood at US$31 billion in 2014, and amounted to US$18.1 billion in September 2015. The two states also planned to increase their trade to US$100 billion by 2023.

Russia's ban on tourists traveling to Turkey weighs heavily on the Turkish tourism industry, whereby in 2014 4.5 million Russian tourists visited Turkey, and up until September 2015, 3.3 million visited Turkey. In addition, food and agricultural imports from Turkey to Russia play a major role in the Turkish economy. For example, Russia is the largest importer of Turkey's white meat products, where the value of imports was expected to reach US$23.5 million by the end of 2015. Furthermore, food and agricultural imports reached US$1 billion in the first 10 months of 2015. An embargo on food and agricultural imports will have a detrimental effect on the Turkish economy.

At the military level, the Russian Ministry of Defense summoned Turkey's Military Attaché and Moscow decided to cut its military relations with Ankara. In addition, Russia reinforced its air defense capabilities in Syria in a bid to prevent the targeting of another warplane over Syrian territory. This includes the deployment of guided missile cruiser Moskva, equipped with the 'Fort' air defense system, similar to the S-300, off the cost of Syria's Latakia Governorate. In addition, President Putin ordered the deployment of long-range ship-to-air S-400 missiles to Hemeimeem air base near Latakia, which threaten Turkish military aircraft approaching the border with Syria.

However, Russian's economic sanctions against Turkey do not include cutting off gas supplies to Turkey. More than half of all Turkish gas supplies and 12% of all oil supplies come from Russia, accounting for approximately 30 billion cubic meters of its gas sales in 2015. A Russian embargo on energy exports to Turkey would back fire and negatively impact the Russian economy, particularly due to plunging global oil prices and that oil is a major source of income for Russia's economy.

Turkey's Attempt to Counter Russian Sanctions

Turkey's failed attempts to defuse tensions with Russia include, President Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, saying they were saddened about shooting down a Russian warplane, and that the warplane was not identified by the Turkish Air Force. While attempts to arrange a meeting between Erdogan and Putin failed, Russia insisted that Turkey should apologize for the shoot-down. In the meantime, Turkey seeks to counter the expected impacts of Russian sanctions.

In this context, President Erdogan visited Qatar on December 1, 2015 and signed an agreement whereby Qatar will supply liquefied gas to Turkey. In addition, Prime Minister Davutoglu visited Azerbaijan on December 3, 2015 and agreed with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to complete the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project, or TANAP, before the original target date of mid-2018. The project is expected to bring 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, of which approximately 6 billion cubic meters is destined for Turkey. These moves send a message to Russia that cutting gas supplies to Turkey would not be useful because alternatives are available to cover any shortfall in Russian gas supplies to meet Turkey's demand for natural gas.

During his visit to Qatar, President Erdogan agreed with Qatar on sending Turkish workers to Qatar’s infrastructure projects, such as the construction related to the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament in 2022, where Qatar needs an additional 500,000 laborers for the work in the coming years. The Turkish Employment Organization (İŞKUR) will find jobs for Turkish workers in Qatar to make up for their lost jobs in Russia by the beginning of 2016 following Russia's ban on Turkish workers. At the same time, Turkey also seeks to open new markets for its products and investments in Arab and African countries to counter Russia's economic sanctions.

Outlook for Russian-Turkish Relations

In light of failed attempts between Russia and Turkey to de-escalate tensions, there is an increasing possibility of continued military escalation in northern Syria between groups loyal to Turkey and groups loyal to the Syrian regime supported by heavy Russian aerial bombardment to settle the war in the Syrian province of Latakia. Particularly in the area known as Jabal al-Turkoman, or Turkmen Mountain, an area of Turkish influence. Settling the war there is aimed at blocking Turkey's plans to establish a "safe zone", or no-fly zone, stretching along the Syrian-Turkish border, an area that covers the town of Jarabulus to the town of Azaz in Aleppo province.

The Kurds continue to be one of the cards for Russia to play in the context of its response to Turkey's shoot-down of the warplane. Russia would increase its support for the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is designated by Turkey as a terrorist organization, in a bid to balance the influence of Syrian opposition groups loyal to Turkey in northern Syria. Russia would also play the card of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey's heartland where it is involved in armed confrontations with the Turkish state.

However, a direct military conflict between Russia and Turkey is not likelihood because Russia recognizes the fact that any assault on Turkey will mean a response from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This was voiced by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov who ruled out a military response stating that Russia has no intention of fighting a war with Turkey. It is also unlikely that Russia will suspend gas exports to Turkey because such a move will negatively impact Russian economy before it does the Turkish economy. This is particularly so in light of the sanctions slapped against Russia because of the Ukrainian crisis. Turkey did not join the EU sanctions, a fact reflected in statements by the Deputy Energy Minister that Russian natural gas supplies to Turkey will continue.  

It is expected that attempts to de-escalate and contain the crisis between the two states will continue following calls for calm by the United States, Europe and NATO.  This was reflected in a recent meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Belgrade, Serbia on the sidelines of the 22nd Ministerial Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).