The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) interactions have become the recurrent phenomenon addressed in presidential elections in Western countries among political parties with different ideologies and political leanings. Perhaps, it has begun with the recent US presidential election to the extent that one can argue that the position of the Democratic and Republican parties toward Gulf issues was a major factor in tipping the balance toward President Donald Trump. This was due to his willingness to address terrorism, global extremism, and Washington’s involvement in Middle East regional affairs.
In this vein, it seems clear that the presidential election in France, which its results will be announced by the end of Sunday, 7 May, is heading clearly in the same direction. Marie Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate, is trying to follow Trump populist discourse in terms of his rigid stance towards Gulf efforts in combating terrorism, especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as she alleges that Saudi Arabia feeds extremists intellectually and Qatar feeds them financially. Furthermore, Le Pen's position towards the Syrian conflict has been evident since she asserted her support for the Al-Assad regime in Syria. She further claimed that if there were elections, the Syrian people might elect Bashar.
In fact, such positions appeal to Western voters, particularly if associated with Gulf countries and were supported by biased partisan Western media disseminating hostile messages against Gulf States. Such discourse can achieve two goals: the first is to defeat the other candidate, assumed to be more lenient towards Gulf States. The second is to persuade voters to elect their candidate, which has happened in electing Le Pen in the first round, utilizing the terrorist attack that took place a few days before the elections in the Champs-Élysées avenue, leaving one security man dead and another man injured.
This article is an attempt to assess the true orientations of the French presidential candidates, Marie Le Pen, the far-right National Front (FN) candidate, and Emmanuel Macron, the liberal centrist, En Marche (On the Move) candidate. This will be tackled through various axes including the Salafi relationship to terrorism in France, concerns regarding the Qatari investments, especially in relation to sport "clubs" and French suburbs, the UAE "Louvre", and defense agreements and political partnerships with the region. One will examine these issues, which were raised during the first and the second round in an attempt to analyze realistically the positions of both candidates.
In addition, the article aims to set the stage of dealing with the policies of whoever will reach the Élysée Palace, bearing in mind some details about each of those axes based on the experience of the US election, and how Gulf States dealt with it.
Gulf trust in French polls
That Le Pen and Macron advanced to the second round of the presidential elections was not a surprise for the Gulf countries. In fact, polls highlighted those results and the expectations- since the beginning- suggested that they would both make it to the second round, defeating François Fillon, the prominent French politician. Indicators for French voter distrust in traditional politicians, who are known for their right or left leanings, were clear. This may come under the "wave" of change in the mood of Western public opinion, after Trump’s popularity endorsed the Republican Party to let him run the elections as its candidate striking a new political phenomenon. Macron succeeded due to steering away from French political orthodoxy, while Le Pen succeeded due to sticking to her radical views.
The Gulf follow-up of the French elections results is important because the candidates’ platforms will decide -though to small extent- the future directions of the new president. Nevertheless, Macron’s victory will, no doubt, differ from that of Le Pen in dealing with the GCC countries.
There is a great desire from the part of Gulf and European countries to have Macron in the Élysée Palace, as he was a minister in the previous Francois Hollande’s government and participated with him in many economic and defense agreements. Thus, he has dealt before and maintained good relations and cooperation with Gulf States (in comparison to the US presidential election, Macron is similar to the democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton), given his clear foreign policy and expertise in politics. On the other hand, Le Pen orientations in foreign policy seems worrying for Gulf and European countries.
Polls indicate that Macron is the closest to be president of France. Despite that trust in the results of US polls failed, polls of French elections seem to come true and regain public trust because the chances of Marie Le Pen seemed slim in her debate with Macron. The latter looks more likely to win after learning from the mistakes of the left and right-wings political parties during the first round, by opening to the other during the second round. In addition, Le Pen's fanatical positions that contradicted French political culture, especially after criticized by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the National Front, are most likely to be in Macron’s favor.
Gulf experience with Western elections' maneuvers
There is an overstatement, especially from Le Pen, in accusing Gulf countries of inefficiency in combating extremism, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar. This brings us back to the US elections that contributed to ratifying Justice against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). Le Pen recognizes that François Hollande has significantly cooperated with the GCC in this regard, reducing the number of terrorist operations, which surged in 2015. Le Pen's insistence on such accusations and Macron, to a lesser extent, is a kind of election maneuver that has been used previously in elections globally and the in the West particularly. It is basically used to defeat other parties. Compared with the US election, the decision of the US President to visit Saudi Arabia as the first leg of his foreign tour, which he criticized during his election campaign, is an important indicator of the West conviction that Gulf states constitute a key partner in the fight against terrorism, and serves as a pointer to the next stage of the French President.
Yet in order to appeal to voters and for campaigning purposes, the candidates choose to ignore, intentionally or unintentionally, that Gulf States themselves suffer from terrorism and extremism. Candidates rather prefer to jump on the bandwagon of "European" street mood, made by the prejudiced media.
With regards to Gulf investments, one will highlight specific points revealing that the political positions of candidates are not viable. Such positions would change once the president is elected. First, Gulf States have invested in the French market with the desire and consent of previous French governments, even with regard to French icons such as the Louvre, French sports clubs and prestigious hotels. The Gulf – French relations are based on strategic agreements that have been intensified during the rule of the former French President Nicolas Sarkozy. His vision then was to make use of the Gulf States’ interest in investing actively in Europe, while France was offering various opportunities for foreign investment in global auctions. Gulf States have managed to secure to themselves the lion’s share of the French “icons”.
Another issue that candidates should not forget is that France has not only long-term defensive agreements with Gulf States, but also military bases in the region. It has agreements as well in the field of energy, oil, and gas, as well as partnerships in other fields. Such partnerships will be a key entry point for the next president to enhance cooperation with Gulf States, which are no longer marginal in political decision-making process in the region. Perhaps, a clear evidence for that is the visit of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, days ago to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the upcoming visit of the new US President this month.
Implications on relations with GCC
The GCC is used to the accusations of Western presidential candidates, as witnessed previously in Trump’s election, currently in France, and probably in others to come. However, as it happened with Trump who benefited from his subjective “accusations” to the Gulf states and then realized the political weight of the GCC. He further began to reconcile and accede to their view, namely concerning Iran’s support to terrorism, an issue that has been ignored in the French elections. Such accusation faced by the GCC are untrue and inapplicable. Accordingly, a similar scenario is expected to occur with the new French president, and will seek to cooperate with the GCC as they resemble strategic key players in the region.
As for Gulf investments, Macron is an economist by profession and France seeks to be a hub for foreign investments in Europe after Brexit, so he is expected to change a lot of his attitudes towards Gulf investments, if not expanding such investments, under the increased financial problems facing France. On the other hand, Gulf countries will find some difficulty in dealing with Le Pen -despite her slim chances to win- especially in weapons acquisition, which will be rejected by manufacturers. Concerning existing investments, agreements will not be easy to annul. Turning inward will not serve France as it suffers lack of funding for projects outside Paris, which Qatar is currently funding with the consent of the French government.
The important point here is that Gulf governments should have a clear stance towards the exploitation of issues like terrorism and investments as a fodder to turn public opinion against them. This is in order to avoid repeating the same scenario in future elections in other European countries, as this may undermine the GCC's efforts in these areas.
To conclude, nobody has an interest in provoking hostility with the GCC, which has now become a center of power in the Middle East, attracting all super powers’ interest in cooperation with the GCC. Decision makers in Western countries are aware of this, not only the presidential candidates, as demonstrated by Trump stances after assuming power. Thus, if Le Pen wins, the French foreign policy towards Gulf States will proceed well. Yet, if Macron wins, it may be much better.
