International relations consist of a complex, interrelated mix of events and individuals, with decisions driven by diverse interests and varying perspectives. Power is often viewed as an expression of influence through the exercise of hard material assets, such as economic wealth and military capacity.
Throughout history, this influence has been closely tied to a strong maritime presence, initially dominated by "old Europe," and later supplanted by the USA and USSR during the bipolar world era. However, as globalization progressed, technology and international value chains redefined many parameters.
The Covid pandemic highlighted the renewed importance of resilience in international relations. Despite the changes brought about by globalization and the rise of China, as well as significant developments in Asia, the United States has remained a prominent international player, and is expected to continue this role for at least another generation.
American Political Whiplash and the Trump Phenomena
Given this context, it is not surprising that American Presidential elections are closely followed internationally, a trend that has increased exponentially with the election of the 47th President of the United States.
The fervent interest in Donald Trump stems from his brazen anti-establishment stance. Equally significant, if not more crucial, is the fact that electing an anti-establishment candidate for a second time testifies to the powerful winds of change sweeping across America—winds that preceded Trump and will continue long after his tenure.
The diversity in American public's view regarding the domestic role of government has become increasingly evident. Traditional messages of both major parties have lost their appeal, raising also numerous questions about the appropriate global role that America should assume.
The end of the Cold War in the late 1980s ushered in a period of political whiplash for the United States. Americans elected a series of presidents representing vastly different ideologies: internationalist Republican George Bush, left-of-center pragmatic Democrat Bill Clinton, right-of-center neoconservative-leaning Republican George W. Bush, left-leaning Democrat and African American Barack Obama, anti-establishment Republican Donald Trump, traditionalist Democrat Joe Biden, and once again, the vehemently anti-establishment Donald Trump. This dizzying rollercoaster of political expression clearly indicates that American constituencies are dissatisfied and searching for identity both domestically and in international relations.
Trump, a nontraditional politician, will undoubtedly attempt to change many things. However, he is not the instigator of change, but rather a clear result of the continuous unanswered call that has resonated throughout America. His election for a second term serves as a clarion call, highlighting that American leadership elites have become disconnected from their constituencies, with the latter growing increasingly agitated.
In such a state of flux, constituencies tend to retrench in dealing with international relations, leaning towards isolationism and nationalist attitudes. Trump's "America First" message aligns consistently with this trend.
A Shift Towards Transactional Diplomacy
We are entering a phase where the United States will increasingly adopt a transactional approach, prioritizing material interests and aiming to maximize direct gains while minimizing exposure. This means that the country will show limited appetite for protracted negotiations or strategic relationships that do not align with these objectives. Furthermore, the USA will become more risk-averse, particularly in military matters. Instead of focusing on norm-building, the emphasis will be on calculated risks and pursuing higher profit margins. Essentially, the current perspective resembles that of a businessman, where America's priority is private gain, and considerations for the common good and long-term benefits take a secondary role contingent upon reasonable burden-sharing.
Diplomacy will now prioritize balancing power rather than addressing rights violations, correcting aberrations, or preserving the common good. The expression of diplomacy will be direct and assertive. However, it is also worth noting that one of President Trump's positive attributes is his willingness to engage with adversaries. He has clearly communicated this intent to both Russia and China, even though he has been somewhat caustic towards China, which poses a more significant economic challenge.
Trump and his team engaged with the global community even before taking office. He boldly called for better terms for America regarding Panama, Greenland, Canada, and Mexico, and previously urged NATO allies to contribute more to security costs. He also indicated that unmatched support for Ukraine would be limited. In fact, his Middle East representative even compelled Netanyahu to break the traditional Sabbath to meet regarding Gaza ceasefire negotiations, which ultimately resulted in an agreement.
A New Paradigm in American Foreign Policy
Much of the change in American style reflects Trump's character and personal traits; however, deeper reflection is warranted. I vividly recall a recent encounter with American foreign policy experts who emphasized that international relations, particularly major power rivalry, will always be a significant area of interest and concern. Interestingly, several experts noted a diminished affinity for an American role or assistance when American interests are not directly threatened. This perspective closely aligns with Trump's approach, though he tends to define interests from a shorter-term viewpoint. Generally, Americans—especially under Trump's leadership—seem willing to relinquish the role and responsibility of a visionary Chairman of the world order in favor of a traditional Chief Executive focused on quarterly and annual material results. Such a shift in focus is likely to endure for a while beyond Trump's tenure.
Recommendations for International Engagement with Trump’s America
In response to present-day America, now led by Trump, members of the international community should adopt a three-pronged approach to international relations, especially in their dealings with the United States.
To begin with, it is important for the international community to emulate some of Trump's practices. This involves clearly and publicly articulating the parameters of their positions, including what is unacceptable and their ambitious objectives. It is crucial to avoid misunderstandings, as they can pose a greater threat than mere disagreements.
Within the established parameters, efforts should be focused on resolving issues or making progress by offering concrete suggestions that allow room for negotiations , of simply reiterating general principles or goals . Engagement is crucial in this era.
Finally, when presenting these proposals, it is essential to highlight an immediate and long-term cost-benefit analysis for America and its allies. Such a tri-pronged approach both provides clarity and underscores the mutual advantages of cooperation and strategic decision-making.
Key Issues in the Early Trump Administration
Several issues will be prominent in the early months of the Trump Administration. The new staff has already offered proposals on Ukraine that essentially maintain some Russian gains. However, these proposals remain inconclusive when it comes to addressing NATO and EU adherence. It is important for Russia to approach this situation constructively, avoiding the mistake of overreaching as it did in Ukraine.high strung Trump will be equally focused on perceptions as content.
The Palestinian-Israeli issue will impose itself high on the agenda, particularly concerning the volatile Gaza ceasefire agreement and beyond. Israelis are likely to delay progress and highlight Palestinian violations to avoid taking steps in subsequent phases. They will also attempt to manage these violations, using them as an excuse to seek more support from the Trump administration or to discourage requests for substantial political compromises toward resolving the conflict through the creation of a Palestinian State.
In this context, it is crucial to articulate Arab rights and demands for ending occupation and achieving statehood, both for their inherent value and for the sake of regional security. When addressing Trump, these demands should be paired with innovative, conclusive solutions aimed at stabilizing the region. It is essential to preserve Palestinian national identity within an independent state.
Israel will consistently frame the Iranian nuclear program as a threat or use it as a diversion from addressing the Palestinian issue. The program is controversial however , focusing solely on that nuclear program could have extremely perilous long-term consequences. Instead, a comprehensive Arab proposal for Middle East security, encompassing conflict resolution, arms control, and regional stability, could be more appealing to President Trump as he seeks to reshape the Middle East landscape.
China, considered as America's most significant potential global competitor, will be a central focus for Trump and many within his Administration. The economic aspect of this relationship may act as a stabilizing force, possibly paving the way for a new era of genuine competition or heightened tensions. Miscalculations concerning the South China Sea and Taiwan could further complicate the situation. While Trump tends to favor non-interventionism, various national security institutions in the U.S. express strong concerns about the increasingly assertive posture of the Chinese military.
Trump remains the central figure in America's political spectacle. However, despite his distinctive style, he is more a product of changing political dynamics in the United States than their instigator. It is crucial for the world to recognize the shifting mood in the United States and its strategic implications for international relations.
