During his election campaign, US President-elect Donald Trump hinted at tough policies towards China. He pledged to impose broad tariffs on imports from Beijing, leading many analysts to expect a resurgence of fierce competition between the United States and China after Trump's return to power. However, numerous questions remain about the characteristics of this potential escalation between the two countries in Africa. Additionally, the implications of Trump's second term on the presence of Beijing and Washington in the continent in the coming period are yet to be fully understood.
Different Considerations
Estimates varied regarding the implications of Trump's second term on the US-China competition in Africa, which can be explained as follows:
1- Trump's isolationist tendencies
Suggestions that the isolationist agenda Trump might pursue, reflected in his "America First" policy, could present a significant opportunity for China's extensive ambitions in Africa gained traction. Potential US policies under Trump could pave the way for Beijing's expansion into Africa, especially considering that Trump's first term largely ignored the continent. The perspective predicts that Trump's second term will continue along the same path, with only a few key African countries being prioritized by the new U.S. administration. Such an approach would lead to increased maneuvering space for China, allowing it to expand its influence and possibly become the most significant player in the region.
2- Potential shifts in Trump's orientation
Potential Shifts in Trump's Orientation: Another viewpoint suggests that Trump's second term might witness significant changes in Washington-Africa relations, primarily driven by his firm belief that China poses an existential threat to the U.S. Proponents of this view predict Trump's desire to escalate tensions with Beijing in an attempt to undermine its influence across various competitive arenas. Within such a framework, some estimates posit that Trump increasingly recognizes Africa's importance as a key battleground in the US-China rivalry, especially considering China's growing and noticeable influence, which has transformed it into a major and powerful actor on the continent.
3- Economic priorities for the new U.S. administration
A third perspective suggests that Trump's second term could see greater engagement with Africa compared to his first term, with the primary goal of achieving economic interests from the African continent. The centrality of the economic dimension for Trump underpins this viewpoint. Given the abundant vital minerals in African countries and their importance to competing global powers in the international system, particularly the US and China, the new U.S. administration will likely seek to enhance its presence in Africa, especially in regions rich in strategic minerals. While aligning somewhat with the previous perspective, this view differs in terms of the expected level of U.S. involvement in the African continent. Supporters of this perspective believe the new U.S. administration will expand its presence in Africa, but may focus more on certain countries.
Proactive Moves
Recent developments have highlighted significant Chinese initiatives on the African continent, reflecting a proactive strategy to bolster China's influence in what is increasingly viewed as a key arena for US-China competition. The primary aspects of these strategic moves can be summarized as follows:
1- Expanding Beijing's military cooperation with Africa
Military cooperation in the African continent stands as one of the most prominent tools in the intense competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa. China has recently sought to increase its military cooperation with African countries. For years, Beijing had been cooperating with African nations in various security areas, including participation in UN peacekeeping missions, conducting joint military exercises, and providing education and training for African officers. However, some Western reports have indicated that Beijing's recent announcement during the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in September 2024 represents the most explicit statement regarding China's military commitments on the African continent.
The timing of China's announcement coincides with setbacks suffered by the US military presence in the African Sahel region. Military coups in several Sahel countries have led to severed ties between these nations and Washington. Niger stands out as a notable example, where the US military was compelled to withdraw its forces and close its air base, which held geostrategic importance for the US military presence in the Sahel and West Africa.
The commander of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley, announced that Washington is currently restructuring its assets on the African continent. His statement refers to ongoing discussions between the United States and several West African countries, including Ghana, Benin, and Côte d'Ivoire, aimed at compensating for its loss in Niger. Western reports suggest that the US is seeking to rally support following the decline of its influence in the Sahel and West Africa, which explains General Langley's repeated tours in West, North, and East Africa.
Washington aims to change its discourse approach, strengthening consultation with its African partners while listening to their requirements instead of using the previous language of guidance. The lack of sufficient consultation with African countries led to widespread criticism from US allies on the continent, pushing some towards strengthening cooperation with China.
In the context of China's military moves in Africa, there is growing US concern about potential Chinese efforts to establish a second permanent military base in West Africa, in addition to its only current base in Djibouti, East Africa. The United States views the prospect of a Chinese military presence in West Africa as a threat to its national security, as such a presence would give Beijing a military foothold in the Atlantic Ocean off the eastern coast of the United States.
2- Transferring smart city technology to Africa
China has made the transfer of smart city technology one of the dimensions of its security diplomacy in the African continent. The move aims to expand China's role as a security partner with African countries, especially through the "Global Security Initiative." Smart city technology utilizes digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and big data to redesign urban living and connect urban centers with sensors, improving security, providing services, and enhancing urban management in general.
China has encouraged the deployment of smart city infrastructure across the continent through state-owned companies, such as Huawei, which has helped spread smart city surveillance systems in recent years. These systems are now being used in nine countries and are planned for deployment in four more. With more than 10,000 Chinese companies operating in Africa and investments worth over $300 billion, Beijing is working to secure resources, expand markets, and increase its regional influence through a financing model that entrenches Chinese technology dominance in Africa.
The increasing reliance of African countries on Chinese technology has raised growing concerns among the United States and its Western allies, amid China's expanding dominance and influence. Western reports have warned of potential Chinese espionage through the spread of its technology in African countries. Concerns stem from the possibility that Chinese companies can access data collected about African countries, as exemplified by the deal between Chinese company CloudWalk Technology and the government in Zimbabwe, where data is sent to China to develop facial recognition algorithms.
However, the main US concern regarding China's smart city initiatives in Africa centers on viewing them as a strategic tool for Beijing to strengthen ties with African nations, access crucial resources, reshape regional alliances, and curtail US influence on the continent. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of Chinese technology raises the probability that Chinese standards will become the governing framework for the African market, potentially restricting access for US and Western companies. Thus, smart city initiatives serve as another avenue through which China can gain an advantage over the United States in Africa.
3- A radical shift in Beijing's diplomatic approach
The ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2024 revealed radical shifts in China's diplomatic approach in the African continent. In September 2024, Beijing managed to gather delegations from 53 African countries, including 36 led by African heads of state and government. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged investments worth approximately $50.7 billion over the next three years in the African continent. However, the most significant outcome related to the long-term, more complex and expansive Chinese vision presented.
Reflecting a new era in Sino-African relations, the ninth forum solidified what the Chinese president described as a "solid Sino-African community with a shared future for a new era." On the sidelines of the forum meetings, Xi Jinping made pledges to various countries to support the development of different African nations, affirming that the 2024 forum would be a decisive turning point in the trajectory of Sino-African relations.
During the forum, the Chinese president emphasized Beijing's view of African countries as allies and partners in the turbulent global system. Xi focused on the need to build and strengthen alliances with various African countries to support China's efforts in "reforming global governance institutions." By promoting the idea of long-lasting friendship, a shared past, and the struggle for freedom - central concepts in Chinese diplomatic discourse - Beijing seeks to crystallize the foundations for legitimizing a shared future between China and the countries of the African continent in the new international order.
At the ninth FOCAC forum, China highlighted a new approach to modernization targeting economic and ideological dimensions. The approach emphasizes the right of each party to pursue its own path of modernization, capitalizing on African frustration with the Western model.
Potential Policies
In reality, the Trump administration's approach to Africa does not represent a significant break from traditional US policy, regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House. Historically, Africa has received marginal attention on the US foreign policy agenda. Considering this context, along with the intense competition with China, Trump's potential policy toward Africa could be shaped as follows:
1- Divergence in US commitment to existing partnerships
Concerns arose regarding the possibility that the Trump administration might abandon some of its bilateral and multilateral trade partnerships in Africa. One such partnership included the Lobito Corridor project, stretching from Angola's Atlantic coast through the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the Indian Ocean in the east. The Biden administration had previously announced plans to develop the Lobito Corridor and the Zambia–Lobito railway, considering it one of the most significant infrastructure projects undertaken by the US in recent years. Moreover, the project was viewed as part of a broader vision to connect the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, potentially competing with China's Belt and Road Initiative, which has facilitated the construction of numerous ports, roads, and railways across Africa. Conversely, some questioned whether the Trump administration would actually reduce its trade partnerships in Africa. An alternative perspective suggested that the administration might seek to expand these partnerships, given Trump's emphasis on economic and trade dimensions.
2- Potential deals with Africa
Trump's second term might involve agreements with African countries, aligning with statements from Trump's former envoy to the Great Lakes and African Sahel regions, J. Peter Pham, who suggested that the upcoming Trump administration could seek mutually beneficial arrangements. Such deals might include renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants eligible African countries duty-free access to US markets. Although potentially contradicting Trump's anticipated tariff policies, exempting Africa from these tariffs could serve as a strategy to strengthen Washington's ties with African nations.
3- Reduction of funding in many parts of Africa
President Trump's administration is likely to reduce its external funding, including many US-funded programs in Africa. Statements from Max Primorac, former deputy director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), support this possibility, as he criticized the 2025 project in some of the agency's programs. The conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation proposed the project, consisting of about 900 pages, which aims to restructure the federal government, aligning closely with Trump's vision. During Trump's first term, foreign aid funding was reduced by as much as 30%, setting a precedent for potential future cuts. Although the Biden administration announced in December 2023 that it had invested around $22 billion in Africa, with further investments pledged, growing doubts persist about the level of commitment the incoming Trump administration will have toward major US projects in Africa, particularly in health, security, and development.
4- Strong U.S. role in counterterrorism
Continuing the strong role maintained by Trump's first administration in combating terrorism in Africa, his second term is expected to expand efforts targeting terrorist groups in the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions. The administration will likely increase military support for counterterrorism initiatives across the continent. Allied nations in West Africa, such as Ghana, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast, as well as some countries in the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya, are anticipated to receive preferential treatment. Despite this enhanced military commitment, sending additional U.S. troops on the ground is not expected to be part of the strategy.
In conclusion, the new administration of Donald Trump appears poised to navigate conflicting priorities. On one hand, isolationist tendencies, embodied by the 'America First' slogan, pull the focus inward. Simultaneously, a strong desire to confront China's growing global influence, particularly in Africa, pushes for international engagement. The African continent, with its strategic importance, is expected to become a major arena for intense competition between Washington and Beijing.
