Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Unpredictable Results
The outcome of Kenya’s elections could have been anyone’s guess. President-elect Ruto won Kenya’s elections by a narrow margin of 50.4% of the votes. More than 14.2 million Kenyans voted on August 9. Though hard to predict, Ruto’s win would have numerous implications on Kenya’s future, which may be summarised as follows:
1. Ruto’s marginal victory:
Odinga, defeated for the fourth time in a row, secured 48.8%, equivalent 6.94 million; Ruto secured 50.5%, or 7.18 million votes. Addressing the country, Ruto welcomed the outcome, asking for Kenya’s support, and said that he looked forward to working with all factions. He urged rivals to accept the commission’s decision and not to resort to retribution, hinting at his opposition and former ally, Uhuru Kenyatta. Odinga, for the time being, has rejected the results vehemently, and signalled that he would challenge the result in the Supreme Court.
2. A split in the electoral commission:
Echoing Odinga’s petition is a group of commissioners who have claimed that the results announced by the Chairman exceeded the total number of votes. IEBC Vice Chairperson Juliana Cherera said she and three other commissioners rejected the results over discrepancies and ‘elusive counting’. Yet the dissident commissioners were appointed by Kenyatta, which might explain their reaction to the outcome of the election.
Ballot counting was extremely complicated, which resulted in delaying the outcome announcement by nearly a week. The delay casted doubts over the integrity of the count, fuelling speculation and scepticism. Worth noting, however, that this term’s elections had been followed closely by national and international observers, which limit validity of those accusations.
3. Protests:
Odinga’s stronghold, Kisumu, saw limited unrests, and so did Nairobi, which Kenyan police delt with quickly, though these might lead to further protests across the country.
4. Lower participation:
IECB estimated about 65% voter turnout during this term’s election, compared to 78% and 86% in 2017 and 2013 respectively. The decrease in number of voters has been attributed to Covid-19 pandemic, and the dire economic circumstances brought about by the war in Ukraine, combined with rising corruption and diminishing tryst in the country’s political elite.
Presidential and Parliamentary Races
As millions of Kenyans caster their ballots, the 2022 general elections was historical by any measure:
1. Hotly contested race:
Of the four running candidates, Ruto and Odinga were well ahead their rivals. Odinga, who has lost his fifth election, is the opposition party leader, and member of the ‘One Kenya’, or Azimio in Swahili, a coalition made up of 23 parties, including Kenya’s 7 biggest including Kenyatta’s The Jubilee Party of Kenya, and Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Ruto leads the Kenya Kwanza (Kenya First) alliance, which is made up of 9 parties.
2.The rise of populism:
Candidates played on class and economic issues, not ethnic differences, this election. Without a candidate from the Kikuyu running this term, economic the plummeting economic conditions and a rampant corruption in Kenya played a central for campaigning candidates.
Ruto targeted the youth and women, portraying himself of humble beginnings, as a barefoot chicken seller; a champion of the poor, facing the economic elite. He has promised to tackle issues such as unemployment and cost of living, coining the term “hustler nation” to describe the young people struggling to make ends meet.
The Jubilee party rejected Ruto’s candidacy in 2021, stirring criticism from Kenya’s largest ethnic group, Kikuyu at Kenyatta, inadvertently rising Ruto’s popularity in Mount Kenya, Kenyatta’s own stronghold.
2. Polarised parliament:
The parliamentary and senator elections proved equally divisive. Of 67 total parliament seats, Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza won 33 seats, and Odinga’s Azimio 32 seats. At the national assembly Odinga’s coalition edged ahead with 162 seats of 349 total seats, while Kenya Kwanza secured 158, and the remaining 18 seats are allocated for independent MPs. Consequently, the legislative elections are far from over as both parties will move quickly to forge alliances in both upper and lower houses security a majority.
Internal Repercussions
The general election race is far from over. Amid division and contention, observes worry that this term’s elections may result in clashes similar to previous years.
1. Legal battles:
Outgoing president Kenyatta is expected to take the matters to the Supreme Court. Some fear the legal proceeding of 2017 when the court upheld Odinga’s petition for the elections to be repeated, accusing his rivals of rigging the votes. In 2018, IECB’s Chairman Chebukati was criticised by the Supreme Court for breaking constitutional rules, adding fuel to the controversy.
2. Fears of violence:
Kenya’s elections in 2007 and 2017, which Odinga also lost, led to violent clashes that killed more than 1200 and displaced nearly 600 thousand Kenyans. Nairobi saw wide and violent protests that led to a rerun of elections.
As fragmented protests broke following Ruto’s win, there is worry that unrests supporting Odinga might spread to other counties outside Nairobi; possibly parallel protests in support of Ruto might break in Nakuru and Eldoret.
3. Lower chances of unrests:
Observers note that ongoing protests against Ruto’s victory might spread across the country, despite both candidates having vowed to respect the outcomes and refusing violence. Also Kenya’s judiciary has a reputation for independence and Odinga seems to have a legal uphill given the celebrated transparency of this election. International NGOs and officials overseeing the elections neither have discredited the count or implied rigging. Electronic results from more than 46,000 polling stations were uploaded for all to see and scrutinise within hours of the polls closing on August 9. Perhaps as the Kikuyus backed Ruto might levitate the tensions stemming from tribal conflict, especially during a time when Kenya’s economy is ailing.
4. Shifting alliances:
The Azimio coalition might be facing an internal rift following Kenyatta’s loss at the elections, especially having lost many of his followers to Odinga.
If the coalition collapses, Ruto and Odinga might reach an understanding which might bridge the deep differences between them.
Kenya’s Foreign Policy
The elections are expected to have a limited implication on Kenya’s foreign policy, for Ruto had played a role in the current Kenyan establishment.
1. Western alliance:
Kenya is a leading model for democracy in Africa. Despite imperfections, the country enjoys a wide support from the West. Ruto has said on more than one occasion that he would strengthen his country’s relationship with the West, not China, and has been critical of China’s debt policy and deal with the large number of Chinese workers in Kenya.
2. Kenya’s role in eastern Africa:
Nairobi’s regional policy is not expected to change. Ruto is expected to make official visits to neighbouring countries in effort to restore diplomatic relations and resolve some of the pending issues. Tanzania and Somalia may be on top of his travel agenda. Ruto is likely to foster cooperation with Ethiopia, seeing he was soon congratulated by President Abiy Ahmed.
Nairobi is expected to retain its central position as a regional economic powerhouse. Ruto would be keen to strengthen trade and cooperation with eastern African countries. He would drive a more active role for Kenya in the East African Community, and advocate for a common market, especially with Uganda and Tanzania.
Kenya’s Mombasa port plays a key role for landlocked Tanzania, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and South Sudan. The port plays a strategic role in these countries: ahead of Kenya’s elections, Uganda increased its fuel reserves to 100 million litres to avoid another shortage like that of 2007.
Kenya, it may be concluded, might have survived a bottleneck but serious challenges lie ahead. Kenyans could succeed in retaining Kenya’s reputation as a success story for democracy in Africa, receiving international support for this strategic country in East Africa. Yet, the risk of chaos and violence remain present, however slim, and Kenyans have to do everything they can to avoid it.
