Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi paid an official visit to Ethiopia earlier in December 2021, which is the first visit by a high-ranking Chinese official since the onset of the current conflict between the Addis Ababa government and the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2020. This significant visit also comes just two weeks after the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, visited the African continent.

International and regional variables

During a press conference with his Ethiopian counterpart, Demeke Mekonnen, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that his visit to Addis Ababa aims primarily to reiterate Chinese support for the Ethiopian government headed by Abiy Ahmed. The Chinese minister's visit to Ethiopia comes at the end of his tour of the African continent, which was primarily focusing on participating in the Eighth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). His visit to Addis Ababa was also linked to the following variables:

1-    US efforts to engage in Africa: 

The visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to Ethiopia was preceded by another one made by his US counterpart, Anthony Blinken, to the African continent in mid-November, with three main stops: Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal. Blinken's tour aimed to enhance the US influence and presence in Africa, and to attempt to develop a new strategy for Washington to counter the growing Chinese and Russian influence on the continent. 

2-    The exacerbation of the existing conflict in Ethiopia: 

Ethiopia is witnessing an ongoing escalation in the conflict between the forces of the central government and the forces led by the TPLF, particularly after the latter has reached the outskirts of the Capital Addis Ababa, in addition to its attack on the road linking Addis Ababa to Djibouti, through which most of the Ethiopian imports come through, before the Ethiopian forces managed to secure this road.

3-    Western pressures on Addis Ababa: 

Abiy Ahmed's government is facing growing Western pressures due to the current conflict with the TPLF, which has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. This prompted US President Joe Biden to threaten to impose sanctions on the Ethiopian government, in addition to the EU tending to pose similar threats. 

On the other hand, recent weeks have witnessed frequent communication between Addis Ababa and both Beijing and Moscow, which resulted in the intervention of China, Russia and India to reject Ireland's proposal in the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Addis Ababa, which was supported by Washington and a number of Western countries. 

Meanwhile, some reports indicated that a week ago, the US sent three military ships near Ethiopia, claiming to support the US Embassy in Addis Ababa as well as its nationals, should the security situation deteriorate. However, some considered this step to be an indirect US threat, and reports hinted that the statements of the Chinese Foreign Minister regarding his country's rejection of any foreign interference in Ethiopia came in response to the recent US moves.

Reasons behind the Chinese visit

In light of the previous developments, the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to Ethiopia comes with the aim of achieving certain goals, which may be portrayed as follows:

1-    Confirmation of continued support for Addis Ababa: 

During his visit to Ethiopia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that his country will continue to support Addis Ababa to bring about peace and stability. Chinese support was not limited to diplomatic positions, but extended to military support as well. Beijing's military provided Chinese missiles to support to Addis Ababa. The Chinese army further provided two types of heavy multiple launcher systems: "Calt A200" and "Norinco AR2".

2-    Blocking the way for Washington’s allies: 

On December 1, the Chinese state-run news website CGTN published a story that Washington held an online meeting for representatives of the “United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFCF)” led by the TPLF, according to the Russian Sputnik channel.

The Chinese website mentioned that Vicki Huddleston, a US retired diplomat and former Chargé d'Affaires ad interim to Ethiopia, was heard in the meeting saying she hoped to see the rebel group achieve "military success" in its war with the Ethiopian government, which may imply the presence of US moves aimed at supporting the coalition opposing Abiy Ahmed's government, with the aim of overthrowing him and establishing a phase of political transition under which a new government would be established.

It is worth noting that the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to Ethiopia, on December 1, coincided with this leak, which may indicate Beijing's tendency to support Ethiopia militarily in response to the US position.  

3-    Exploiting the tense US-Ethiopian relations: 

Abiy Ahmed's government has recently levelled severe criticism against the US and European countries, hinting at some external parties aiming to threaten the stability of Addis Ababa. 

In this regard, Beijing seems to be seeking to exploit the increasing rift in Ethiopia's relations with the US to enhance its influence and direct presence in the Horn of Africa through Addis Ababa. This may have been reinforced by the statements of the Chinese Ambassador to Ethiopia, Zhao Zhiyuan, who said that his country will firmly stand by the Ethiopian people and also sticks to its opposition of any outside interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs. 

4-    Protecting an important African market for Beijing: 

Addis Ababa is of strategic importance for China, whether as a main gateway to the budding African market, or because of the Ethiopian market itself, which includes large Chinese investments. Beijing does not want to lose this vital market in case the Ethiopian capital collapses, which may also pave the way for the outbreak of civil wars.

Beijing ranks first in terms of the volume of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia, with over 60% of total foreign investment in Addis Ababa in 2019. China also financed the highway linking Addis Ababa and the port of Djibouti, as well as the railway between them. Thus, with the presence of the Chinese military base in Djibouti, this road has become Beijing's gateway to East and Central Africa. Thus, the dominance of the TPLF over this road would pose a direct threat to Chinese interests.

Furthermore, during the period from 2008 to 2018, Chinese companies were involved in over a thousand investment projects within Ethiopia. Despite the completion of nearly 600 projects, many of them are still under implementation. Moreover, these projects are prone to increase, with the presence of more than 500 Chinese companies operating in Addis Ababa, with investments worth more than USD 1.5 billion. Total Chinese loans to Ethiopia until 2018 reached nearly USD 13.7 billion. 

Furthermore, in December 2019, Beijing supported the Ethiopian government in launching its first satellite "ETRSS-1". Also, In February 2021, the two countries' announced their signing an agreement aimed at enhancing technological cooperation between them, without disclosing any details pertaining to this agreement.

Remarkable field transformations

Notably, the Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Addis Ababa was accompanied by field developments and remarkable political implications, which can be illustrated as follows:

1-    The progress of Government forces: 

Recent days have witnessed remarkable developments on the battle front in Ethiopia. After several weeks of the Tigray's continued advance towards the Ethiopian capital, with some views suggesting the possibility of the fall of Abiy Ahmed's government, last November, the balance began to shift in favor of the Ethiopian government forces, which regained control of some Cities that had been captured by the TPLF.

These developments came in parallel with the Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Addis Ababa, which may imply that this advancement by the Ethiopian forces came through a direct support from China, or, at least, through an attempt on its part to take advantage of these variables to reinforce its gains by hinting to its tendency to engage broadly in supporting Abiy Ahmed's government against the TPLF.

2-    Supporting Abiy Ahmed’s authority: 

Wang Yi's visit to Ethiopia, and his statements in which he affirmed his country's support for the Addis Ababa government and rejection of any pressures imposed on it, came to indicate a relative decline in the prospects of the fall of the Abiy Ahmed regime, particularly in light of his talk about his regaining control over more cities in the Afar region, which may lead to a stalemate that would require subsequent diplomatic negotiations.

3-    Enhancing the divergence of the Chinese position: 

Recent weeks have witnessed intense moves by the West, including the US, to withdraw their citizens from Ethiopia. Meanwhile, Beijing keeping its citizens working in Ethiopia, as well as the Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit, all came to reinforce the extent of the divergence of the Chinese policy and the attempts to enhance the reliability of Beijing as a strategic ally of African countries, as opposed to the vacillating position of the US and European countries. The Chinese minister also stressed his country's confidence in the Ethiopian government's ability to impose security and stability.

In conclusion, field developments in Ethiopia may arguably indicate the African continent turning into a major arena for Chinese-US competition, which will impact the map of influence in the Horn of Africa at least. However, this will not likely lead to a win-lose situation, as both parties are expected to work on expanding their arrangements in order to foster their influence in the region, which may further complicate the security and political situation there.