On Sunday, October 22, 2023, Argentina's first round of presidential elections came to a close without a new president being named. Instead, the country moved on to the decisive round on November 19, where the candidate of the Peronist movement and current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, received 36.5% of the vote, while Javier Milei, a libertarian economist and member of the far-right movement, received 30%.
Along with electing the governors of the provinces of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, and Catamarca, as well as the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, the Argentines also renewed 130 out of 257 seats in the House of Representatives and elected 24 out of 72 senators.
Elections Context
In the two months since August 2023's presidential primaries, Argentina has seen a fierce competition between three political movements to select the next president of Casa Rosada Palace. These are the now-dominant Peronist movement, known as the "Union for the Homeland" and led by Massa; the center-right "Together for Change" movement, headed by former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich; and the recent far-right populist movement led by Milei who hailed from outside of traditional Argentine politics, and stands in for the "La Libertad Avanza" (Freedom Forward) party.
The following are the main factors that surrounded the first round of the Argentine elections:
1. Deteriorating economic conditions:
Argentina's economic downturn has been the key entry point for most electoral debates and even rivalry between opponents.
It has also become the primary guide for Argentine voters in these elections. Argentina's inflation rate has reached about 140%, with prices rising by 12.7% in September alone. The minimum wage has reached 132,000 pesos, or roughly $380 at the official exchange rate, while 40% of Argentines, or over 18 million people, are classified below the poverty line. The Argentine Central Bank's hard currency holdings also fell as a result of the drought's impact on raw material exports, notably agricultural exports. The current Peronist government was also unable to repay the $44 billion International Monetary Fund debt that the right-wing Macri government received in 2018.
In recent months, the current government reduced subsidies and established a specific exchange market for a variety of exports to accumulate foreign currency. However, none of these steps were effective in preventing the currency's 18% depreciation following the August 13 primaries. The currency is projected to fall further following the current elections. Since August 14, the official exchange rate for the dollar has been 365 pesos, while the parallel (black) market rate has approached 1,000 pesos per dollar.
2. Variation of electoral programs:
Javier Milei ran on a quite different electoral platform than the most popular Peronist movement in Argentina for many decades, dating back to the 1950s. In his televised election debates, he made an explicit declaration of his support for the freedom of individuals to own weapons, which is a common denominator among representatives of far-right movements in the Americas, as well as his opposition to the right to abortion, which is one of the laws that feminist and human rights movements are concerned about. This is in addition to reducing and even eliminating government funding for education, health, and scientific research, gradually canceling social programs, reducing retirement and pension funds, shifting to open market policies, and making broad and radical financial and economic adjustments in the country that would reduce the country's state of economic and financial deterioration. The adoption of a policy of "dollarization" of the Argentine economy is at the top of these changes, despite the fact that the Argentine Constitution prohibits replacing the peso as the country's legal currency with any other foreign currency.
Milei also vowed to cut the number of ministries from 18 to 8, including combining the Ministries of Social Development, Health, and Education into one named "Human Capital," and removing others like the Ministry of Women, Gender, and Diversity.
Sergio Massa, the center-left presidential candidate, focused his campaign on the economy and security. In public interviews, he indicated that one of his top priorities was to eliminate 100% of the debts owing to the International Monetary Fund, which he was negotiating as the current Minister of Economy. On the issue of security, Massa stated that he would follow the same policy he implemented as mayor of Tigray, which was to set up a video surveillance systems to prevent and monitor crime, as well as to use satellite systems and drones on the border to combat drug smuggling.
3. The rise of the far-right movement:
It is hard to fully understand the outcome of the presidential elections held on Sunday, October 22, 2023, separate from the primary elections held on August 13. The far-right Javier Milei received the biggest percentage of votes, amounting to 29.8%, while the candidate of the centre-right movement "Together for Change" Patricia Bullrich came in second place with 28% votes, and third was Peronist candidate and current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, with 27.2% votes.
It is worth noting that Milei 's unexpected rise was a real surprise to both the current Peronist government and the right-wing opposition, despite the fact that he was completely unfamiliar with the Argentine electoral scene, both personally and in his speech and presidential program. Perhaps this is the shock that prompted a lot of voters who had not voted in the primaries to vote in the October 22 polls in order to support Massa in the face of the difficult choice of Milei for many Peronist and some center-right voters.
4. Questioning the results before elections:
Insinuating the existence of a conspiracy to rig elections appears to be something inherent in extremist right-wing candidates. The issue began with former US President Donald Trump in the 2020 US presidential elections, which resulted in his supporters attacking the Capitol building in Washington under the guise of a plot to rig the polls in order to bring him down. This was replicated in Brazil following the defeat of the far-right Jair Bolsonaro over the left-wing candidate, Lula da Silva, in the recent presidential elections. Bolsonaro voices worries about the integrity of the elections once more, with his supporters attacking the Brazilian Congress. Prior to the start of the Argentina elections, the far-right candidate Milei also warned that fraud would be used to prevent him from obtaining the presidency.
Multiple Implications
There are numerous implications regarding Argentina's upcoming elections, which can be summarized as follows:
1. Going to a runoff:
After 98% of the votes in the presidential elections were counted by the end of October 22, Peronist (centre-left) candidate Sergio Massa (36.6%) and far-right candidate Javier Milei (30%) won, while center-right candidate Patricia Bullrich lost (23.8%). This means that Massa and Milei will face off in a run-off election on November 19, 2023.
Peronist Axel Kicillof, on the other side, was elected Prime Minister of Buenos Aires, where 38% of Argentines live. Jorge Macri, candidate of the center-right coalition "Together for Change," was unable to win mayor of Buenos Aires in the first round by a very narrow margin, receiving only 49.61% of the votes. He will go to a runoff against his Peronist competitor, Leandro Santoro, on November 19, 2023.
In terms of parliamentary elections, the extreme right, which had only three representatives in the House of Representatives until Sunday, now has 39 members in the House as of December 2023, making it the third force after the Peronist movement with 107 members, the center right with 94 members, and the remaining forces with 17 members. Considering that the majority required to approve legislation in the Council is 136 votes, Massa may face challenges if he wins the presidency and wishes to adopt draft laws.
After counting the votes in the Senate, the distribution of the 72 Senate seats became as follows: 34 for Peronism, 24 for the center right, 8 for the extreme right, and 6 for minority groups, with a quorum of 37 votes required.
2. A low participation rate:
Despite the fact that voting is compulsory for all Argentines between the ages of 18 and 70, just 69% of voters participated in the August 2023 primaries, one of the lowest participation rates in the country's 40-year history. This indicates that 31% of Argentine voters decided not to vote in the presidential elections, a bigger percentage than Javier Milei himself.
On Sunday, October 22, around 25.9 million individuals, or 74% of those registered, cast votes, representing a seven-point reduction in participation from the previous presidential elections in 2019.
3. First participation of the extreme right:
Since the country's democratic transition, Argentina's electoral scene has gotten accustomed to competition between the center-left Peronism movement and the center-right movement. Presidential candidates are used to debate economic concerns such as social protection laws and programs, improving the living standards of the poorest classes, feminist and gender rights problems and climate change.
However, due to the decline in economic conditions, elevated rates of inflation, and the depreciation of the peso, which caused the dollar to rise to 360 pesos and probably reach 500 pesos following the elections, millions of voters—many of whom are young people—became deeply dissatisfied with both traditional left- and right-wing political movements. This is a phenomenon that has swept Latin American countries and many democracies around the world. The popular vote has become a declaration of rejection of traditional political movements and a tool for punitive voting, with voters selecting an extreme right-wing populist model from outside traditional political circles in the hope of finding unconventional solutions to the severe crisis.
This is exactly what Javier Milei stated in his electoral program. It was a protest against everything familiar, until it came to veiled statements about his support for the military coup era (1976-1983), one that was rejected and condemned by Argentina for 40 years of democratic transformation, stabilization of the democratic principle, rejection of violence against the opposition, and even prosecution of those responsible for this coup and dictatorial rule.
4. The possibility of a domino effect spreading across the continent:
Latin American countries are transitioning from a state of competition between right-wing and left-wing parties to one of conflict between left-wing parties and emerging right-wing populist groups. These are warning indicators of a risk similar to the 1970s period of right-left strife in the continent's countries during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. The nations in the area suffered throughout this period, which came to a difficult end with the long democratic transition. As a result, it is probable that one of the candidates linked with the populist extreme right will add to resonance in the rest of the region's countries, particularly those with left-wing governments or parties.
For example, Brazil's socialist government fears Javier Milei’s victory since he has vowed to disband Mercosur and end bilateral ties with Brazil. For President Lula, it is critical that Peronism win the presidency so that the region's primary trading partner is governed by an ally, rather than a far-right that regards the Brazilian Workers' Party and its president as enemies. As a result, Lula dispatched numerous professionals from his election campaign to Argentina few weeks ago to help Sergio Massa's campaign. During the elections, however, Brazilian politician Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, came in Buenos Aires to support Javier Milei’s candidacy. According to Bolsonaro Jr., Milei’s victory would give the far-right a boost throughout the region.
What stands out about the current Argentine presidential elections is the outpouring of rage against the Peronist movement, which ruled the country for years after the democratic transition, with only brief interruptions, the most recent of which was the presidency of the center-right Macri (2015-2019). This wave has reached an unprecedented degree due to the deteriorating economic conditions. However, Javier Milei’s entry to the electoral race was equally astounding at the local and regional levels, especially after he received 7 million votes in the primary elections, as it was a reason to save Peronist candidate Sergio Massa. This is due to Milei's strength, which caused the opposition votes to split between him and Bullrich, the center-right candidate who was most likely to prevail over Peronism. This resulted in a runoff between Milei and Massa, with Massa winning by a margin of 7 points, making it more likely that he would win in the runoff if the center-right votes were regarded to go to him than the far-right Milei.
However, the economic crisis continues to endanger the entire Peronist movement, because Massa's election to the presidency - if he wins in the second round - means he would be held accountable to his people for saving the country from a dire financial and economic fate. He will also face a strong opposition that intends to exploit his lack of success in front of the Argentine people, who have long supported Peronism since the 1950s. At this point he will be better prepared for the escalation of an extreme right-wing president such as Javier Milei, which will have a profound effect on Latin American regional ties as well as Argentina's lengthy route of democratic transition and social justice.
