Every conflict has a life cycle that starts with divergence of interests and views between two or more states. Escalating interactions between such parties to the conflict give rise to a crisis, and when involved parties fail to reach a peaceful settlement, a war breaks out as a direct and harsh expression of power. As late Chinese leader Mao Tsi-Tung put it, “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. Wars attract regional and international powers to intervene, each according to their own interests. While some powers’ interest lies in continuation of the war, others mediate between warring parties in a bid to put a ceasefire in place and later a settlement to the conflict.
The Historical Outcome of Previous Wars
Settlements between warring parties vary. While some settlements are no more than a ceasefire, as was the case in 1949 following the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, other settlements can be comprehensive and are carried in the best interest of all parties as they uproot the causes of the conflict. Between ceasefires and comprehensive settlements, the history of international relations shows partial and unjust settlements that carry the seeds of fresh conflicts and wars. The bottom line is that the type of settlement to a war and the way it addresses the causes of the conflict serve as a key to know whether or not the settlement itself will become a cause of future conflicts.
As a good example, settlements that followed World War I in Europe were humiliating for Germany. Some of Germany’s regions which had predominantly German populations were annexed to Czechoslovakia, Romania and France, and Germany was forced to accept full responsibility for starting the war and pay reparations to the Allied Powers that won the war and suffered additional burdens because of the global economic crisis in the 1930s. To further humiliate Germany, the Allied Powers did not enter into negotiations with the defeated country, rather agreed to dictate their terms on the Germans. Therefore, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles sowed the seeds of Germany’s desire for vengeance and was a major cause of World War II.
The history of Poland presents us with a pattern of coercive settlements imposed by foreign powers. In the 18th century, balance and conflict in the relations between the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire and the Kingdom of Prussia led to the breaking up of Poland three times in 1772, 1793 and 1779. In the third such time, Poland was divided between these three powers and disappeared from the map of Europe until 1918.
Settlements that came after World War II that were imposed by the Allied Powers i.e. the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and China, were built on the assumption that their alliance would last long. When such conviction turned out to be incorrect and the Cold War broke out between the two camps, many United Nations institutions broke down and economic, diplomatic and military competition raged between the two major powers at the global level.
The two great powers avoided being involved in an armed conflict but both powers were involved in interventions to back allied parties in conflicts such as the Korean War which lasted three years (1950-1953) and ended with the division of the Korean Peninsula into two countries and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between them. The First Vietnam War broke out between forces from the South backed by France and western powers and forces from the North backed by Bejing and Moscow. The war ended when the North defeated the South at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954, leading to the partitioning of Vietnam into North Vietnam and South Vietnam.
The Second Vietnam War broke out between South Vietnam, backed by the western camp and North Vietnam backed by the eastern camp and lasted for 20 years. The United States’ participation in this war continued until the fall of Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam, which disappeared as a result of its defeat.
The Impact on Ukraine
The potential impact of the current war between Russia and Ukraine depends on the forms of political and economic settlement that would follow a ceasefire between the two countries.
No doubt, a rift in the humane and social relations between Russians and Ukrainians has already developed. Both sides have long believed that they maintained close ties. Because this conflict is causing hundreds and even thousands of military and civilian casualties and wreaking havoc across Ukrainian cities, the situation will never be back to normal. In such cases, the collective memory of peoples remains alive for long years.
The rift is likely to become more visible for Ukrainians who, in military terms, are weaker than the Russians. Because this situation is not likely to change in the future, anger and sorrow among Ukrainians will become more pronounced to develop into further national pride, and may very well lead to wider extremist nationalism already visible in Ukraine. Other issues include the reconstruction of Ukraine, its sources of funds and time required to carry it out, the issue of more than 4.4 million Ukrainians, according to estimates by the UN Refugee Agency published on April 9th, who were rendered refugees since the war broke out, and the involved mechanisms and time required for their return to their homes.
What would further escalate the conflict is the fate of Ukraine’s Donbas region, the formation of the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and their potential annexation to Russia following a referendum. If this happens, fresh conflicts are likely to break out, especially after Russia recognized the current borders of Ukraine in 1991.
The Clash between Russia and the West
It goes without saying that the Russians will not forget that the West launched an unprecedented attack that went far beyond punishment, which paralyzed and dried out the sources of Russia’s power. The situation is likely to revive Russia’s bitter memories of confrontation with the West. That is, over the past five centuries, Russia fought wars with Sweden, Poland, Germany, France and Britain that they believe were waged to stop their objective of restoring “historic Russia.”
But on the other hand, this attack would encourage Russia to re-focus its efforts on its Asian side. Three quarters of its territory and a quarter of its population are in Asia. Moreover, the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are traditional areas of Russia’s influence.
Furthermore, China is today Russia’s major ally. The two powers are likely to promote cooperation to establish a new global financial system that is not based on the dominance of the US dollar, and develop a new interbank transfer system to replace SWIFT. But of course, such a transition will not be easily accepted by western powers that will make sure to stop it by creating all possible obstacles and hurdles.
Another issue has to do with the future of Russian minorities in the three Baltic states. Russians account for a third of the population in both Estonia and Latvia and 10 percent of Lithuania’s population. After the three states gained independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union and joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union, their Russian minority faced issues about their right of using Russian language when each of the three states pursued policies promoting their national languages. Amid the current war between Russia and Ukraine, and after the three states condemned Russia’s behavior and backed sanctions imposed on Moscow, the Russian minority became under mounting pressures as they are viewed as a “fifth column” backing Russia. But Russia is not likely to condone the matter, which is set to become a source of tension with the three Baltic states.
The position of the United States and European countries which imposed the toughest sanctions so far is a major factor. US President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal”. The West accused Russia of committing “war crimes” in Ukraine and said that what happened in Bucha may amount to genocide. Moreover, the International Criminal Court sent a team to Ukraine to gather evidence and investigate these violations.
Proliferation of Wars
In conclusion, several issues can trigger future conflicts after the war between Russia and Ukraine. The current developments are likely to bring about some of these conflicts, but what would be the defining element is the form of any settlement between Russia and Ukraine as well as approval from the United States and other western powers. Such settlement would signal whether it would bring the whole conflict, which broke out back in the 1990s, to an end, along with the western powers’ use of Ukraine’s accession to NATO as leverage against Russia, or just put an end to only one of its episodes, as was the case with the settlement in 2014, leaving the world waiting for the conflict to flare up again.
