In January 24, 2022, members of the army in Burkina Faso announced their seizure of power and the dismissal of Burkinabé President Roch Marc Kaboré. One of the officers who seized power delivered a statement on state television, signed by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Head of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR), announcing the overthrow of the government, thus joining Burkina Faso to Mali and Guinea, in the third military coup in West Africa in just eight months.

A stringent internal situation

Burkina Faso witnessed a coup d'état against Burkinabé President Roch Marc Kaboré, who had come to power in 2015 through the country's first presidential elections, following the overthrow of former President Blaise Compaoré, under a public uprising that swept the country in 2014. The pre-conditions of the coup and the key responses may be clarified as follows:

1-     The failure of endeavors to prevent the coup: 

The last few weeks have witnessed acute tension between the Burkinabé army and President Kaboré, which culminated in the declaration of some soldiers in the military barracks of their rebellion. Then, the situation escalated with shootings in the vicinity of the presidential palace, as well as the detection of a helicopter over the President's house, which coincided with the spread of rumors that the army seized power. 

The government denied the existence of any movements by the army, stressing that the situation was under control, before the Burkinabé President issued a decision on January 23 announcing night curfews. However, on January 24, a group of army officers delivered a statement issued by the MPSR which carried out the last military coup in Burkina Faso, led by Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. 

The statement announced that the army had overthrown President Kaboré, dissolved the parliament and the government, suspended the constitution and closed the country's borders. Some reports indicated that Kaboré was detained, along with several government officials, in the Sangoulé Lamizana military barracks.

2-     Regional and international condemnations: 

UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, expressed his strong condemnation of the military coup, calling on the military forces to ensure the safety of the President and hand over their weapons. Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, also expressed his condemnation of the recent coup, so did the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which held the coup members responsible for the President’s safety. 

Furthermore, on January 24, the US and the EU called for the immediate release of the President of Burkina Faso and the rest of the civilian members of state institutions, as well as paying due respect for the constitution and the priority of dialogue. French President Emmanuel Macron also announced his condemnation of the military coup in Burkina Faso.

The motives

There are several factors explaining the recent military coup in Burkina Faso, which may be portrayed as follows:

1-     The escalation of tensions within the military establishment: 

Recently, a state of discontent has been growing within the Burkinabé army, alleging the failure of the ruling regime to provide them with the necessary supplies to counter the attacks of terrorist groups. Army members believe that this failure was one of the reasons for the terrorist attack that targeted the Northern Inata military base last November, which resulted in the death of more than 50 security personnel. 

Tensions within the army exacerbated after a series of removals of several army leaders carried out by President Kaboré last November. Tensions further exacerbated with Kaboré’s arrest of about 12 people one week before the last coup, including lieutenant-colonel Emmanuel Zoungrana, a senior commander in the army, allegedly on a suspicion of the involvement of these members in planning internal destabilization. This indicates that the President had information indicating moves to oust him, but this information was not sufficient to reveal the identity of the group that carried out the recent coup. 

2-     A growing public anger: 

Since taking office in 2015, President Kaboré pledged to intensify efforts to combat terrorism. Yet, the frequency of terrorist attacks increased during his rule in an unprecedented manner, which resulted in the killing of thousands and the displacement of more than 1.5 million people.

Moreover, much of the rural lands went out of state control, which led to the growth of internal protests against President Kaboré recently, which amounted to demanding his dismissal. The last of these demonstrations were those that erupted on January 22 in the capital, Gadogo and several other cities, where protesters set fire to the headquarters of the ruling party.

Domestic implications

The recent developments in Burkina Faso have various implications as follows:

1-     An expected step: 

This is the eighth coup in Burkina Faso's history since its independence from France in 1960. Notably, the coup did not come as a surprise, but was rather expected for a long time, in light of the political and security turmoil witnessed in the country recently, particularly after the terrorist attack that targeted the village of Solhan in June 2021, which resulted in more than 100 deaths. This sparked widespread internal anger against the Burkinabé President.

On January 25, French reports indicate that the French government had been expecting a military coup in Burkina Faso since last September, as it had been on high alert for several months in anticipation of such a move.

2-     A public support for the coup: 

Ouagadougou witnessed widespread celebrations by hundreds of people of the army’s control of the country. A recent survey conducted by the Afrobarometer network showed that about 50% of the population in Burkina Faso support military rule, versus 31% in the case of Mali, which will enhance the influence of the new military authorities.

3-     A possible Russian role: 

Local reports indicated that recent weeks have witnessed demands by some members of the army for President Kaboré to contact the Russian Wagner company to support anti-terrorism efforts. This may support views that suggest the possibility of an undeclared role for Wagner mercenaries, given their escalating role in Mali and Central Africa, as well as Moscow's aspiration to expand its presence in the Sahel and West Africa using Wagner. 

It is worth noting that the demonstrators who came out in support of the recent military coup had carried slogans in support of Russia, and demanded a greater role by Moscow to support the country, and to repeat the Central African and Mali scenario in their country. This indicates the possibility that the coming period may witness great Russian involvement in Burkina Faso.

Extensive regional repercussions

The coup in Burkina Faso reveals a number of regional repercussions, which may be outlined as follows:

1-     Concerns about the return of coups: 

There are growing concerns regarding the possibility of a return to the stage of successive coups that Burkina Faso had witnessed during the eighties and nineties of the twentieth century, which may plunge the country into a spiral of extended instability.  

2-     The infection of regional proliferation: 

There are concerns about the continuation of the "snowball" phenomenon in the West African region, as the Mali model is likely to be repeated in several cases, particularly in the absence of any strict regional or international position. This view may be supported by the similarity between the August 2020 Mali coup and the recent coup in Burkina Faso. 

Niger may be a candidate for such a scenario, specifically as it witnessed a failed coup attempt against President Mohamed Bazoum in March 2021, a few days after he came to power following the general elections in the country. Moreover, there are concerns that the situation may worsen in Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire.

3-     Threatening the French presence:

On January 24, the French newspaper La Croix warned of the future of the French presence in the African Sahel. The report indicated that the current French presence in Burkina Faso is limited to a group of 350 special forces soldiers, whose mission is limited to launching strikes against terrorist elements. 

The report ruled out the intervention of these members to secure the Burkinabé President, similar to the intervention of these forces in 2014 when they provided a safe exit for former president, Blaise Compaoré, since any uncalculated intervention by Paris would threaten the lines of convoys supplying its forces at the Gao base in Mali and the Ménaka base in Niger, specifically in light of the growing public anger against the French presence in the West African region as a whole.

On the other hand, President Macron is avoiding taking any steps in the Sahel region during the current period, only three months prior to the presidential elections. Furthermore, the recent coup in Burkina Faso represents a new setback for the French presence in the Sahel, opening the door to the rising Russian influence to fill the new void in Ouagadougou.

Conversely, the current developments in Mali and Burkina Faso may prompt the European countries to reconsider their continuity in the region through the Takuba Task Force. Notably, in mid-January, Sweden had announced the termination of its participation in these forces.

Recent developments in Burkina Faso reveal the precarious security situation in West Africa, as well as the increasing possibilities of this scenario being repeated in other countries. Although Burkina Faso may be subjected to regional or international sanctions during the coming period, the great public support for the military leaders who carried out the coup may enhance the influence of the transitional authorities, and may pave the way for a possible rapprochement with Moscow during the upcoming period.