Amidst the many changes the global system witnessed, the Summit of the Future 2024 will be held by the United Nations General Assembly on September 22 and 23. These changes are related to the end of the era of unipolarity led by the United States and the transition to a multipolar world, and the recent designation of 2023 as one of the bloodiest years in the history of conflict according to the United Nations, with a rate of 183 regional armed conflicts in the world - the highest in 30 years. There are aspirations that this summit will result in a new charter capable of better dealing with the challenges of global governance, especially since the United Nations has described this event as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to revitalize global action and continue to develop frameworks for multilateralism to be fit for the future.

With the challenges facing Africa, expectations are high for this summit. This is whether in working to achieve climate justice and hold major powers accountable for their responsibility towards the most affected countries of the continent, striving to restructure global financial institutions, or continuing calls for reparations and historical justice for what colonialism has caused of destruction and delayed economic and political development at the level of the African state structure.

However, amid these aspirations, the most pressing question remains: Can Africa gain permanent membership on the Security Council with the right of veto through this summit?

African Aspirations for a Permanent Seat

Africa has sought a permanent seat on the UN Security Council for decades. African countries have made many decisions since the Sirte Declaration in 1999 to reform the United Nations, followed by the Ezulwini Consensus in 2005. The latter was adopted by the African Union and represented at that time the common African position on reforming the Security Council; it called for granting Africa two permanent seats with all the rights and privileges of permanent membership, including the veto, and five non-permanent seats. Although Africa has three elected members out of a total of 10 non-permanent seats, it does not have a permanent seat on the Security Council. African attempts to qualify for this seat may be due to several reasons:

1. Africa has 28% of UN membership: 

There are 54 African countries out of 193 member states of the United Nations, with Africa being the second most populous continent. However, Africa does not have permanent seats on the Security Council. On the contrary, Europe, which represents only 10% of the world's population, has half the number of permanent seats. This is despite the geostrategic importance of the African continent and its rich resources.

2. Dominance of African issues on the Security Council: 

Security issues and conflicts in Africa dominate the Security Council agenda, raising a crisis of legitimacy and credibility when decisions are taken without adequate representation of those affected. This is in addition to the emergence of new crises, such as climate change, terrorism, refugees, and food insecurity, as well as the continuous changes in the economic and political system and the expansion of challenges posing a threat to international security. Hence, war is no longer the only risk facing the continent; this requires Africa to be represented in the body that discusses solutions to these issues and challenges it suffers from more than any other continent.

3. Inability of the Security Council to resolve African conflicts: 

Africa has witnessed many conflicts, yet the Security Council has not solved or ended them. With the rapid development that the world is witnessing, the structures developed to deal with the conflicts of the World War II era have proven unable to resolve many of the conflicts faced today. This confirms the need for a representative, responsive, and capable Security Council to meet contemporary global challenges. When the United Nations was founded in 1945, most African countries were still under colonial rule. Therefore, African countries faced - post-independence - the fact that the UN Charter had created institutional hierarchies that favored the great powers through permanent membership in the Security Council, not considering the need for an African representative who is more familiar with the cultural, linguistic, religious and ethnic roots that are among the main causes of African conflicts.

4. Double standards of the five permanent members: 

The five permanent members tend to put their own interests above the goal of international peace. This is in addition to increasing violations of the basic principles of international law, disregard for international humanitarian law in different conflict zones in Africa according to the members' interests, and the selective application of standards. This led to the erosion of the credibility of the multilateral system. This was clearly evident in two things; the first of which is the contradiction in the level of attention to African conflicts compared to other crises, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza, while Sudan is suffering from a severe civil war that did not receive the same attention. The second is using the veto to promote self-interest, whether in relation to the actual veto of the decision or the threat to use the veto, therefore dissuading supporters of the resolution from putting it to a vote at all.

An Unlikely Scenario

Africa faces a number of challenges in obtaining a permanent seat on the Security Council. This is despite UN Secretary-General António Guterres's criticism of the lack of a permanent African seat on the Security Council and his assertion that the Summit of the Future will be an opportunity to help rebuild trust and make outdated multilateral institutions and frameworks compatible with today's world on the basis of equality and solidarity. These can be summarized as challenges arising from African countries themselves, the five permanent members, and the global system.

1. The selection crisis: 

The lack of a selection process for the country that will represent Africa on the Security Council, in addition to the lack of unity behind a new common position and the difficulty of presenting practical proposals to the summit on how African countries will choose the countries that will represent them as permanent members, are some of the main challenges to preventing Africa from obtaining a permanent seat. Despite the Ezulwini Consensus, the African group has not yet been able to determine the criteria for selecting African candidates. At the same time, many African countries are looking to obtain this membership, including Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, and Algeria. Each country sees itself as the most deserving and enjoying the powers it confers at the international level.

2. Obstruction of accession by the five permanent members: 

Although all five permanent members of the Security Council have announced their support for increased representation on the Council, including permanent membership, they will practically hinder granting any other country permanent membership on the Security Council with the right of veto for several reasons. For example, US President Joe Biden made a statement at the 2022 UN General Assembly annual summit supporting an increase in the number of permanent and non-permanent representatives on the Council alongside permanent seats for African countries. The first reason is that granting an African country the right of veto could hinder many of the decisions taken by the five countries in their favor and in favor of their allies. This is regardless of the extent of its harm to the African continent or its compatibility with international peace. Second, the increasing demands of countries from other continents that see themselves as entitled to permanent membership, such as Japan, Germany, India, and Brazil, are seeking permanent membership, especially in light of the existence of continents such as South America that are not represented in permanent membership. Third, reforming the Security Council system will open the door to real reform of global financial institutions that protect the hegemony of these countries and their continued progress at the expense of developing countries, including Africa.

3. An opposition to the veto: 

Recent years have witnessed opposition from some countries and international non-governmental organizations to the veto, considering it to contradict the principle of sovereign equality among states, which is one of the guiding principles of the United Nations as stipulated in Article 2(1) of the UN Charter. This means that adding permanent African representation to the Council may face attacks from those calling for the abolition of the veto in general and for no country to enjoy it at the expense of another.

4. Failure to include Security Council reform in the initial draft: 

The UN Secretary-General issued a series of eleven policy summaries for 2024 and put them up for discussion as the basis for the final charter that the summit will issue. However, the section on governance transformation ignored the issue of reforming the Security Council and the need to expand permanent membership, which indicates that this issue will not be a major topic of discussion at the summit and that even if permanent members are added to the Security Council, their membership will be without the right of veto.

5. Difficulty of amending the UN Charter: 

Article 108 of the UN Charter states that amending the UN Charter requires the support of all five permanent members. This means that for Africa to obtain a permanent seat with the right of veto, it will require the support of all current permanent members and a two-thirds majority of UN member states in the General Assembly. This confirms that the Charter will not be amended, and permanent membership will not be granted to Africa unless an alliance is built within the General Assembly to activate this article and put the Charter Review Conference on the agenda of the Summit of the Future. However, this has not happened in recent months, making it difficult to amend the UN Charter at this time.

Future Prospects

Africa has gained increased attention from international powers following the Russian-Ukrainian war in a way that some have sought to transfer part of their struggle for control of the international system to the African continent. However, there is not expected to be a great deal of response at the upcoming Summit of the Future to the challenges facing Africa. Rather, it is expected that African priorities will be sidelined in the final version of the Charter, even though Namibia is one of the co-chairs of the summit with Germany. This is due to the unprecedented global divisions that weaken the emergence of international consensus and a charter that includes articles that contribute to resolving many global crises, which Africa suffers from more than any other region on the one hand, and the limited interest on the part of the African Union in the summit, and its focus on the G20 since joining it in 2023, which overshadowed preparations for the Summit of the Future, on the other hand. In addition, the African Union's view that this summit will not be much different from its predecessors in terms of producing results that are not being implemented and the insistence of the major powers on weakening Africa and continuing the division of its countries to control its natural resources and benefit from its strategic location.

However, the inclusion of a section in the initial draft of the Charter on reforming international financial institutions can be considered a significant step that may help in formulating a global economic system that better serves the development needs of Africa. This is because the victors of World War II created the current financial system with a primary focus on serving and rebuilding Europe rather than meeting the needs of Africa, which has abundant resources. The fact that this year also marks the 80th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference, the moment when countries came together in the midst of the global crisis to make changes to the multilateral system, represents an opportunity for aspirations to increase Africa's representation in international financial institutions and reallocate special drawing rights to increase the continent's share and strive to create a financial ecosystem that supports sustainable development and climate action.

This year's Future Summit could also provide an opportunity to develop strategies for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and other climate goals by the 2030 deadline.

Despite the diminishing chances of Africa gaining permanent representation on the Security Council, the Summit of the Future could represent an important opportunity to reconsider the policies of joint African action. In this way, this summit could be a serious start to a unified African position that can be used in the future to enhance Africa's real participation in global governance.