The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to take place in the United Arab Emirates from November 30, 2023, to December 12, 2023, amid a complex global environment and volatile crises that are dictating the international and regional political landscape in the Middle East.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed emphasized these challenges in her remarks at the end of October during the climate summit preparatory, stating, “We need to rise above geopolitical divides. And we need to rebuild trust between developed and developing countries.” UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, echoed this sentiment urging unity in the face of the shared challenges of climate change. Stiell stated, "Let us be united by the knowledge that climate change is our common challenge and that here, we will all benefit from the solutions, and we will all suffer from the failure to find them."
Key Issues
During COP28, global attention will be focused on various unresolved issues, including financing climate action, structuring the loss and damage fund, maintaining certain limits on the global temperature rise in the coming years, reducing carbon emissions, increasing investment in clean and renewable energy sources, as well as a global assessment of progress in implementing the Paris Agreement. The conference will also address numerous controversial topics that will demand coordination and collaboration to overcome differences and unite efforts in advancing climate action and accelerating its pace throughout the next stage.
His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and President of COP28 declared in November that the conference presidency is committed to ensuring the participation of all stakeholders in the realm of climate action. The aim is to strengthen the role of the private sector and foster collaboration among all parties and groups of society to build a better future for humanity and planet Earth. The COP28 Presidency has also launched the “Net-Zero Transition Charter” to encourage the private sector to take more assertive action on climate issues and commit to enhanced credibility and accountability in their net-zero emissions pledges.
Dr. Al Jaber also emphasized that the role of the private sector is vital in driving tangible action, achieving ambitious climate goals, and providing support in finding solutions. This aligns with the pillars of the conference’s action agenda - fast-track the energy transition, address climate finance gaps, focus on nature, lives, and livelihoods, and ensure full inclusivity.
Controversial Matters
Despite efforts to achieve consensus on climate action, certain contentious issues have emerged, posing challenges to meeting the ambitious targets that have been set forth. One prominent area of disagreement revolves around the use of fossil fuels. While some advocate for the full elimination of fossil fuel sources within a specified timeframe, others argue that such a goal is unrealistic, asserting that a full elimination of fossil fuel sources in the near future is not feasible.
Another source of controversy revolves around the allocation of responsibility for emissions. Developed countries argue that they are not the primary contributors to emissions, stating that China and India alone account for around 38% of total global emissions. Consequently, they demand shared responsibility, potentially resulting in a significant funding gap. Financing efforts to combat climate change emerge as one of the most pressing challenges, with previously agreed-upon financing targets remaining unmet and pledges from developed countries yet to be fulfilled. As a result, COP28 faces the challenging task of persuading involved parties of the crucial importance of achieving substantive results in this critical field.
A Global Boiling
The severity of the climate change effects has increased in an unprecedented manner over the last few years, prompting the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, to express his concerns in July 2023. He warned that “the era of global warming has ended” and “the era of global boiling has arrived,” highlighting new data released from the World Meteorological Organization. The data predicts July to be the hottest month on record, while the next five years will be the warmest on record, and Arctic temperature levels to be three times higher than the global average over the past decade.
In a September 2023 update, NASA's Earth Observatory reported that the Earth’s average temperature for the month is the highest ever recorded, continuing the pattern of rising temperatures that was observed since the beginning of this summer. The statement highlighted preparations for more severe heat waves as a result of the combined effect of global warming and the El Niño phenomenon, which influences global temperatures and rainfall patterns. To avert such heat waves, a substantial reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is imperative. Achieving the Paris Agreement's goals will necessitate continued significant efforts to reduce emissions, which will be challenging in the face of an unfavorable environment.
Evaluating the Path
In 2015, the world embarked on an ambitious journey with the adoption of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Now, eight years later, both processes have reached key milestones in terms of progress. The upcoming climate summit will mark the first global assessment of collective advancements toward achieving the Paris Agreement's goals, shedding light on the world's progress in addressing the climate challenge as we reach the midpoint of this endeavor.
The Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement, outlined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is a process to evaluate the world's collective progress in meeting the agreement’s objectives and its long-term goals. The agreement tasks each country with developing its own plan to reduce emissions and adapt to climate effects. It also established a process known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for countries to continue strengthening their national climate plans.
It is noteworthy that the "Kyoto Protocol," signed in 1997, mandated industrialized countries and transitioning economies to limit and reduce emissions according to individually agreed-upon targets. The protocol recognized the historical responsibility of developed countries for high greenhouse gas levels. Similarly, the Paris Agreement legally obliges advanced nations to provide technological and financial support to their developing counterparts for mitigation and adaptation, encouraging voluntary support from other states parties. Despite these clear legal obligations, negotiations on climate financing remain stalled.
Regarding the expectations for assessing the Paris Agreement's global progress, there aren't many positive surprises anticipated. It is evident that the agreement's objectives are still not being met, with countries' "nationally determined contributions" falling well short of or not succeeding in reaching their full potential. This not only applies to the Paris Agreement's goals, but also to the midway assessment of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development during the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in September 2023 in New York. Results were unsatisfactory, with progress toward the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals having stalled over the last three years and some even experiencing a global decline compared to previous years. This raises concerns about the political will to achieve the desired progress and the need to reconsider strategies to change course.
A Financing Gap
Climate finance, encompassing financial resources and tools to support climate change action, features the Loss and Damage Fund as a pivotal financial mechanism. The fund aims to enhance developing countries' capacity to adapt to climate change and mitigate negative impacts on affected communities. However, challenges persist regarding the Fund's effectiveness, its ability to achieve objectives, and the developed countries' commitment to fulfill pledges and provide financial and technical support to developing countries. This lack of support hampers the latter's ability to implement the necessary measures to mitigate those risks and accelerate the pace of climate action.
During COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh last year, the states parties established a committee to develop the Fund's organizational and financial structure. The committee’s report, including critical discussions on funding sources, will be presented at the COP28 summit. Climate change-related losses and damages exceed approximately half a billion dollars annually, necessitating the identification of financing sources. Although China and India were invited to contribute to the fund, both declined without proposing solutions to address the financing gap.
Given the controversial concerns between developing and developed countries about climate change financing, it is due to a lack of coordination, openness, and clarity of visions for financing losses and damages. Developed countries focus on the solution without recognizing the extent of the damage caused by carbon emissions in developing countries, thus directing funds toward emission reduction initiatives and green economy projects. Developing countries, on the other hand, emphasize compensation for losses and damages without having a clear vision for spending, recovery procedures, or meeting emission reduction responsibilities. This divergence perpetuates the conflict, putting future generations' opportunities at risk.
In summary, COP28 occurs amidst a challenging global geopolitical context, including the Russian-Ukrainian war, the inflation crisis, tensions between China and the United States, and the Israeli war in Gaza. All of these cast a pall over the atmosphere leading up to this conference, potentially jeopardizing the success of the first global assessment to review progress toward achieving the Paris Agreement's goals and impeding global efforts to close the financing gap for accelerating climate action. Despite these challenges, there remains potential for improvement by focusing discussions on areas of agreement and developing procedures to facilitate necessary progress and achieve desired aims.
