On December 17, 2021, the Tunisian capital witnessed protests organized by thousands of citizens in Habib Bourguiba Avenue, in conjunction with the anniversary of the Jasmine Revolution, which culminated in overthrowing the former President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali (President Kais Saied changed the date of celebrating the Revolution's anniversary from January 14 to December 17).
Anti-government demonstrations
These demonstrations are of paramount significance due to several considerations. One of the most important of which is the fact that they took place after President Saied announced a roadmap for the transitional period, to be carried out in 2022. The roadmap includes, primarily, amending some articles of the constitution on July 25, 2022. In addition, the parliamentary election is going to be held on December 17, 2022.
Amid this context, the motives behind the demonstrations can be interpreted in light of the following:
1. Muslim Brotherhood’s demonstrations against Saied:
A number of opposition parties took part in the demonstrations. The most important of them were the Ennahda Movement (the Muslim Brotherhood) and the Republican Party. They demonstrated to express their opposition to the measures President Saied has imposed for five months. They claim that such measures are deepening the current political crisis rather than helping to resolve it, especially after the exceptional measures have been further extended till December 2022, as per the new roadmap.
The demonstrators renewed Ennahda's demands that President Saied should step down, the Muslim-Brotherhood dominated parliament should resume its activities, the constitution should not be further suspended, and a national salvation government should be formed. The demonstrators, led by members from the pro-Ennahda 'Citizens against the Coup Movement', announced that the sit-ins and protest marches will continue until January 14, with the aim of putting an end to what they described as the coup orchestrated by the president against the constitutional democracy in Tunisia.
Leaders of the Ennahda Movement are seeking to use these protests to promote their own goals-namely, overthrowing the Tunisian president and restoring the political situation to its pre-25 July status. The Ennahda leaders are particularly interested in bringing the suspended parliament back to life, as this guarantees that they will be at the forefront of the political scene again, a situation unlikely to happen as far as President Saied and the Tunisian General Labour Union are concerned.
2. Hindering the democratic transition:
Opponents of the exceptional measures announced by President Saied (including the Democratic Current, which had 22 seats in the frozen parliament) believe that the persistence of these measures constitutes a setback for Tunisia's fledgling democracy, which has come a long way since Ben Ali's regime was overthrown in 2011, especially as the constitutional institutions (notably the parliament) continue to be suspended and the president continues to have exclusive control of both the executive power and the legislative power, not to mention the fact that the president has been accused of interfering in the work of the judiciary since he extended the exceptional measures on September 22.
3. Demonstrations against the economic circumstances:
Several citizens demonstrated in a number of Tunisian cities (mainly in Sidi Bouzid in the center of Tunisia) demanding jobs, freedom, and national dignity. Others also demonstrated in Jendouba, in the north of Tunisia, objecting to the persistence of the deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country, especially as unemployment rates jumped to about 18.4% during the third quarter of 2021. As Bouden's government failed to find effective solutions to the raging economic crisis, demonstrators demanded that President Saied should put into effect Law 38 so that they can work, maintain their dignity and lead a decent life.
Local and international support
Despite the aforementioned demonstrations, there are indications that President Saied will not respond to the opposition's demands, but will rather proceed with the announced exceptional measures, due to the following factors:
1. Saied's decisions are finding favor with people and political parties:
Thousands of people demonstrated in the street of Tunis to express support for the exceptional measures which President Saied announced on July 25, as well as for the roadmap, which he announced on December 13. The supporters described these measures as the perfect solution for the political crisis, which Tunisia has suffered throughout the past years, contending that these measures have recently succeeded in bringing about political stability.
In addition, the demonstrators demanded that President Saied should draft a new constitution, purge the judiciary and abolish the Supreme Judicial Council. Their slogans included 'With you till the end', 'You're demonstrating for a party's sake; we're demonstrating for our homeland's sake', and 'We'll not pay a corrupt system's debts'. There are also several parties, which support Saied's exceptional measures, such as the Alliance for Tunisia, the Popular Current, and Al-Baath Party. It is noticeable, however, that these three parties are not represented in the frozen parliament. These parties believe that the president's decisions embody the aspirations of most Tunisians, as they are aimed to free Tunisia of the corrupt and the agents who managed to find their way to the state's institutions, those who only care about their personal interests and privileges (in an allusion to the Ennahda movement).
2. President Saied is coordinating with the General Labour Union:
President Saied is acting confidently because he has the support of General Labour Union. As the president responded to the Union's demand that a clear schedule for carrying out the exceptional measures should be announced, the Union, in return, announced that Saied's decisions meet people's needs and demands and are in accordance with the Tunisian constitution. The Union leaders had previously announced that any relapse to the pre-July25th situation, along with any attempt to allow Nahda leaders to take part in future political dialogues or consultations, is unacceptable.
In this respect, the General Labour Union is currently coordinating with Bouden's government concerning the government's policies aimed to protect public sector workers against the consequences of the IMF's economic reform program. These consequences, including lifting subsidies and deducting certain sums from the salaries of the public sector workers, have urged the Union to demand quick, effective solutions to the pressing economic problems of Tunisia.
3. Saied has regional and international support:
The roadmap which President Saied announced a week ago has the regional and international support of forces concerned with the development of the Tunisian political crisis, such as the USA, the EU and Turkey. The roadmap has particularly been backed by these forces because of the clear schedule which the stages of the roadmap are supposed to be carried out within. They regarded the announced measures as an important step on the path of restoring democracy and restoring balance between the state's institutions through holding parliamentary elections and forming a new legislative power. This regional and international support imparts a degree of legitimacy on President Saied's decisions and measures, giving him the green light to proceed with what he has started.
In the final analysis, given the current situation, one can safely say that the Ennahda Movement leaders still oppose President Saied and seek to mobilize opposition to his roadmap. However, their efforts did not bear fruit, mainly because of the fact that the roadmap is supported not only by the General Labour Union, but also by regional and international players. This makes it highly unlikely that the demonstrations can stumble President Saied’s roadmap.
