Iran has declared its support for the "Al-Aqsa Flood" Operation, which Hamas launched unexpectedly on Saturday, October 7, 2023. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, described it as "a new page e in the field of resistance and armed operations," while Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, "the Palestinian youth and the Palestinian movement is more energetic, more alive, and more prepared than it has ever been during the last 80 years."
Iranian Support
The Iranian stance was evident in its support for the operation launched by Hamas, and the following are the most significant aspects of this viewpoint:
1. Official endorsement:
From the outset of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, Yahya Rahim Safavi, an advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, openly expressed Iran's backing for Hamas's actions against Israel, expressing his confidence that the "Resistance Front" will ultimately prevail. Members of Iran's parliament also supported the operation. President Ebrahim Raisi held discussions with Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, and Ziad al-Nakhala, the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement. In these conversations, President Raisi indicated that the balance had shifted, suggesting that Israel would face the consequences if a conflict were to erupt.
2. Iranian proxies' support:
The Lebanese Hezbollah promptly expressed its support for operation "Al-Aqsa Flood," describing it as a "heroic, large-scale operation" and emphasizing its "direct contact with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance and the conduct of a continuous assessment of events and the progress of operations with it." Meanwhile, in Yemen, the Houthi militia commended the operation, and its leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, issued a warning on October 10, stating that his group was prepared to engage Israel "if the Americans directly intervened militarily" in the ongoing clashes. Furthermore, pro-Tehran forces in Syria and Iraq also expressed support for military actions against Israel.
Hezbollah expressed its support for these attacks by targeting three sites in the Shebaa Farms, namely Al-Radar, Zibdin, and Ruwaisat Al-Alam, with large numbers of artillery shells and missiles, to which Israeli forces responded by targeting the Kafr Shuba hills and bombing the tent that Hezbollah had set up in the Shebaa Farms recently. As a result, Hezbollah had to reinstall it two hours after the Israeli raid. Conflicts between the two sides further escalated afterwards, resulting in casualties on both sides.
This escalation might indicate Hezbollah's intent to divert Israel's focus by creating a northern front concurrent with the Gaza front in the south, all without directly confronting the Israelis. However, the extent of Hezbollah's escalation remains contingent on the developments of the ground operation in Gaza. It is challenging to declare the Lebanese front as stable at this point. Instead, both sides have departed from the previously agreed-upon rules of engagement established since the 2006 conflict, as attacks are still limited to actions and reactions. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for shooting missiles into an Israeli military location on October 11 in response to the killing of three of its members two days earlier. On October 11, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing missiles into an Israeli military site in response to the killing of three of its members two days prior. Israeli, American, and Western officials were quick to caution against Hezbollah or any of Iran's regional proxies being involved in the ongoing escalation in Gaza, citing the potential for a protracted conflict in the region.
3. The threat of conflict territorialization:
On October 12, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian embarked on a regional tour that included Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. His aim was to strengthen the "Axis of Resistance" alliance and express support for Hamas in the context of Israel's conflict with the Western powers backing it. During his tour, Abdullahian held meetings with senior officials from all three nations, including a notable meeting with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and leaders from the Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups in Lebanon. Iran sought to send a clear message to Israel and the United States during this visit. Amirabdollahian warned that Israel's continued military actions in Gaza would provoke responses from the alliance, suggesting that all options were on the table. He also emphasized the need for the United States to exert control over Israel to prevent a broader regional conflict.
Iran's stance was particularly firm in opposing Washington's unwavering support for Israel during its military operation known as "Swords of Iron" against Hamas. This was underscored by visits from the American Secretary of State and Defense to Israel, alongside the deployment of the aircraft carrier "Gerald Ford" to the Mediterranean and the presence of F-16 jet fighters, among other military assets. In Iran, these actions were perceived as warnings to dissuade Tehran and its regional allies. This was further exacerbated by Israel's intensifying military strikes on Gaza and the imposition of a complete blockade, prompting Iran to increase its support for the Palestinian cause.
4. Iran's retrieved respect for Hamas:
It could be argued that the "Al-Aqsa Flood" Operation marked a turning point in Iran's relationship with Hamas, restoring respect after a period of strained relations. These tensions emerged during the heightened conflict in Syria when Hamas took a stance against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, leading Tehran to label it a "traitor to the covenant." However, recent times have seen an improvement in their ties. On June 19, 2023, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh visited Tehran, holding meetings with President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and other high-ranking Iranian officials. Prior to this visit, Ziad al-Nakhala, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement, also traveled to Tehran.
While the Islamic Jihad movement has escalated its actions against Israel in recent years and appears to have closer ties with Iran, the rehabilitation of Hamas has garnered significant attention in Iranian circles for two key reasons. Firstly, Hamas effectively governs Gaza, creating ongoing tensions with Israel due to its presence there. Secondly, Hamas operates independently of the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, which Tehran may view as an obstacle to any potential future political agreement with Israel. This situation could perpetuate the regional conflict, providing Iran with an opportunity to influence the situation through its proxies.
Notably, Tehran has recently made efforts to treat Islamic Jihad and Hamas on equal footing. During his visit to Lebanon in late August, Foreign Minister Abdullahian met with leaders from both movements and reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to supporting the Palestinian people.
Relevant Contexts
The "Al-Aqsa Flood" Operation holds significant implications for Iran-Israeli relations, which can be analyzed through the following key contexts:
1. Accusations of Iranian involvement in attacks against Israel:
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on October 8, Iranian officials played a role in planning a surprise attack by Hamas on Israel. The report suggests that senior officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, along with representatives from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Lebanese Hezbollah, convened in Beirut earlier that month to finalize the attack plans. Israel's Ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, noted that meetings were held in both Lebanon and Syria, with Iranian agents operating in the region. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, on September 12, disclosed that Iran had constructed an airport in southern Lebanon, located conspicuously close to the Lebanese cities of Jezzine and Barkat Jabour, approximately 20 kilometers from Israel's border. He also stated that Iran intended to use this airport for launching strikes against Israel. Israeli government representatives pledged to retaliate against the "Iranian leadership" if Tehran's involvement in the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation were proven.
Both Tehran and Washington have disputed the credibility of these allegations. In his first broadcast appearance following the escalation in Gaza, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, denounced the Israeli claims of Iran's involvement, emphatically stating that they were "baseless." While the United States lacks intelligence information or concrete evidence linking Iran directly to the attacks carried out by Hamas in Israel, White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby suggested that Tehran might be "complicit" due to its historical ties to the Hamas movement. This position reflects the desire of both American and Iranian sides to avoid direct confrontation, recognizing the immense costs such a conflict would entail for each party.
2. Escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv:
The recent escalation between Israel and the Palestinians has coincided with a heightened phase of the ongoing "shadow war" between Iran and Israel. Israeli airstrikes, which targeted airports in Damascus and Aleppo, resulting in their temporary closure, represent the latest developments in an escalating series of Israeli operations against Syrian targets. Israel's objective in these strikes is to prevent Iran from solidifying its presence within Syria, as Tehran perceives Syria as a strategic stronghold from which it could potentially pose a threat to Israel, especially when Israel is preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Notably, on October 4, there was another attack on locations in the eastern Syrian governorate of Deir al-Zor, an area known for its significant Iranian militia presence.
Furthermore, during his address at the UN General Assembly on September 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He called upon the international community to present a "credible military threat." It's worth noting that his staff subsequently clarified his statement, emphasizing that what was intended was a "military threat" rather than a "nuclear threat." This aligns with the Israeli government's consistent stance, urging action against Iran's nuclear facilities due to ongoing concerns regarding Tehran's nuclear program, which, according to reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, has brought it dangerously close to developing a nuclear weapon.
3. Prisoners exchange deal with Washington:
Operation "Al-Aqsa Flood" coincided with negotiations aimed at releasing $6 billion in Iranian funds owed to South Korea. This development has sparked speculation about the potential for further agreements between Tehran and Washington. These agreements may encompass a range of topics, including nuclear and missile-related issues, as well as the provision of drones to Moscow.
It's worth noting that the statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry endorsing the Hamas attack on Israel was not released until late on the first day of the operation. Several factors may have contributed to this delay, including ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States concerning the release of funds under their prisoner exchange agreement. Tehran likely sought to avoid provoking Washington's anger, which could disrupt the transfer of funds to Iran.
Reports from The Washington Post suggested that the United States and Qatar had reached an agreement to prevent Iran from accessing these funds, a claim which Iran contested. As the mediator of the deal, Doha later confirmed that the agreement's terms remained in effect.
Critics of the Iran deal accused the Biden administration of indirectly supporting Tehran's backing of Hamas, which launched the attack on Israel. In response, Adrian Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, emphasized that no funds had been disbursed and that any future spending would be strictly limited to essentials like food and medicine for the Iranian people.
4. Strengthening Iranian rapprochement with Arab countries:
The ongoing escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict coincides with Iran's persistent efforts to improve relations with countries in the region. This diplomatic outreach is closely tied to Iran's conflict with Israel, as Tehran seeks to counter Israel's attempts to build a regional alliance involving Tel Aviv and neighboring countries to counterbalance Iran and its influence.
Some assessments suggest that Iran may have supported Hamas in carrying out these specific operations, which differ from those of the Islamic Jihad movement. The goal here is to advance the Palestinian cause and stir Arab and Islamic animosity toward Tel Aviv. This implies that Tehran is using this operation as a means to hinder the progress of regional reconciliation and Israeli engagement with neighboring countries in exchange for advancing closer relations and greater openness to Iran.
Mojtaba Zulnouri, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, expressed his "hope that in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks, the issue of regional countries' recognition of Israel will be permanently postponed."
Iran may be considered one of the beneficiaries of the current Israeli-Palestinian escalation, as it may represent a "touch of life" at a time when it is subjected to increasing pressure from Washington and European parties. This pressure stems from contentious nuclear and missile-related matters and Tehran's ongoing support for Moscow through the supply of drones. Additionally, Iran faces increasing threats from Israel, aimed at impeding progress in nuclear negotiations. These circumstances suggest that Iran may anticipate potential sabotage actions in the near future.
