A Turkish security delegation paid an unannounced visit to Western Libya, including Tripoli and Misrata. This delegation met with Mohamed Al-Hadded, Chief of Staff of the Forces of the National Unity Government (GNU), as well as Salah Al-Namroush, Military Commander of the Western region. This visit came following the announcement of the postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections, which were scheduled for December 2021. 

The motives

There are several reasons that may explain this sudden visit by the Turkish delegation to Libya, particularly in light of the current developments in the Libyan file. The situation may be detailed as follows:

1.     Coordinating the exit of mercenaries: 

The visit of the Turkish delegation to Western Libya came to inform Ankara's allies there that a new batch of Syrian mercenaries affiliated with Turkey will be transferred out of Libya. This step was based on recent agreements with the UN in compliance with the principle of reciprocity. 

On January 5, Flight Radar indicated that a Turkish military cargo plane was spotted coming from the Mutared base in Ankara towards Misrata, a few hours after the French Foreign Ministry announced the departure of 300 foreign mercenaries from Eastern Libya. This seems to be positive sign which is expected to be followed by further withdrawal procedures until the full foreign mercenaries’ withdrawal from Libya is reached.

Thus, the Turkish delegation aims to coordinate with Ankara's allies in Western Libya on security arrangements in light of some information pertaining to the movements by sleeper cells affiliated with ISIS in the region. This explains the tripartite meeting held by the Turkish delegation with officials from Western Libya, as well as an Italian security delegation, to reinforce security and logistical coordination.

2.     Information about the movements of militias in Western Libya: 

The visit of the Turkish delegation to Western Libya was linked to the entangled situation in Tripoli among armed militias. Recent weeks witnessed the arrival of military units in Tripoli from Misrata to control the movements of some militias in the capital, which raised Ankara's concern about the possibility of armed clashes among different militias in Western Libya. 

Ankara fears that these developments may threaten Turkey's interests in the region, particularly after the Libyan Presidential Council dismissed Major General Abdul-Basit Marwan, Chief of Tripoli military zone, and appointed Major General Abdel Qader Mansour in his place. The Presidential Council has mobilized militias from several cities in Western Libya towards Tripoli, and estimates suggest the likelihood of the Council making adjustments to the current structure of militias in Western Libya.

3.     Consideration of the issue of unifying the military establishment: 

The visit of the Turkish security delegation to Western Libya came prior to the meeting held by Abdul Razzaq Al-Nadori, Chief of Staff of the Libyan National Army, with Mohamed Al-Hadded, Chief of Staff of the Forces of the GNU, on January 9, to discuss the issue of unifying the military establishment in Libya. This second meeting held by the two parties in less than a month is a key indicator of the existence of international pressure pushing for making progress on this file, as a key determinant in ensuring the completion of the election process. Therefore, the visit of the security delegation prior to this meeting aimed for coordinating with Western Libya on arrangements relevant to this issue.

4.     Restructuring Libyan civil aviation: 

On January 8, the General Directorate of Civil Aviation in Turkey announced that it will begin restructuring the Libyan Civil Aviation Authority over the coming period, in addition to expanding the trainings already provided by Ankara to the Authority's staff pertaining to airports, aviation security and slope control. Furthermore, throughout this year, special focus will be given to technologies, particularly those concerning security. 

The Turkish Aviation Directorate also mentioned the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Istanbul last November, which involves cooperation in the fields of technical infrastructure and training enhancement, as well as the implementation of civil aviation development plans in Libya.

The above reflects the growing Turkish involvement in the fields of Libyan infrastructure, including civil aviation. This enhances Turkey's keenness to foster its economic role in Libya, specifically if its forces and the Syrian mercenaries affiliated with it depart in the future.  

Key implications

According to the mentioned information, the visit of the Turkish security delegation to Tripoli and Misrata reflects several key implications, which may be presented as follows:

1.     Expanding Turkey's network of alliances: 

There have been recent intensive Turkish movements with the aim of enhancing its security and economic involvement within Libyan institutions. The visit of the Turkish security delegation to Western Libya comes within the framework of these movements. What is new about the current Turkish endeavors is that they are no longer limited to Western Libya, but rather expand to include the Eastern region as well. This started with the visit of a delegation from the Libyan Parliament to Ankara in mid-December, which paved the way for the return of Turkish companies to the Eastern region, particularly since there were discussions relevant to the return of Turkish Airlines to the Libyan Eastern region, as well as the reopening of the Turkish Consulate in Benghazi.

In this respect, Hussein Al-Qatrani, the First Deputy Prime Minister of the interim GNU, extended an invitation to Kanaan Yilmaz, Turkish Ambassador to Libya, to visit Eastern Libya during the meeting held by the two parties on January 10. Qatrani indicated that he discussed with the Turkish Ambassador the reactivation of consular representation in Benghazi, as Ankara's consulate had been closed since 2014, in addition to discussing the Turkish contribution in the reconstruction of Libya.

On the other hand, some views suggest that there are Turkish endeavors to enhance the Turkish presence in the Libyan file by appointing a special envoy to Libya, who assumes broader authority than the Turkish Ambassador to Tripoli. Although these views indicate that the identity of this Turkish envoy is undecided yet, they have suggested that Kanaan Yilmaz, Ankara's current Ambassador to Tripoli, is a strong candidate for this position. This may justify the recent intensive meetings Yilmaz held with a number of Libyan parties, including Khaled Al-Mishri, Chairman of the so-called High Council of State, and Hussein Al-Qatrani, Libyan Deputy Prime Minister.

2.     Turkish concern regarding the future of Al-Dabaiba: 

The visit of the Turkish security delegation to Libya reflects Turkish concerns regarding the moves by Libyan parties aimed at excluding Abdulhamid Al-Dabaiba, Head of the GNU, from the scene. An unannounced meeting was held between Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, and Khaled Al-Mishri in Morocco. They were later joined by Belkacem Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army. Reports indicated that the goal of this tripartite meeting was mainly aimed at planning to remove Al-Dabaiba from heading the government.

The move seems to have raised Ankara's concern, as it seeks to ensure the continuation of its ally, Al-Dabaiba. This may explain the meeting held by the Turkish Ambassador to Libya with Al-Mishri, as well as the first meeting with Al-Qatrani, who recently returned to assume his duties after a period of tensions in his relationship with Al-Dabaiba, within the framework of Ankara's endeavors to mediate between the two parties to resolve any differences that may impact the future of Al-Dabaiba. government.

On the other hand, the visit of the Turkish security delegation to Libya reflected Ankara's concern over recent moves that have resulted in some signs of new internal alliances, most notably the recent consensus between Field Marshal Haftar and former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, which may explain the Turkish delegation's meeting with Bashagha in Misrata.

3.     The possibility of resolving the Libyan crisis: 

The current changes in the Libyan file reflect one of the aspects of the current developments in the relations between different regional actors, which have begun to witness a noticeable decline in the intensity of tensions, particularly with regard to the pattern of Turkish relations with Arab countries. This is clearly reflected on the course of the Libyan crisis, as well as the established relations between different Libyan parties and regional powers. This may enhance the current calm in Libya, while pushing for further progress on the economic and military tracks.

In conclusion, Turkish endeavors to enhance its involvement in the Libyan interior are quite obvious, in addition to expanding the network of its relations with various internal parties, including Eastern Libya, while ensuring the continuity of its influence in Western Libya. Thus, Ankara, through the recent visit by the security delegation to Tripoli and Misrata, aimed at asserting its influence in this region, and containing any Libyan moves to overthrow Al-Dabaiba.