The ruling military council in Chad, led by General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, demanded the United States halt military operations at the Adji Kossei Air Base near the Chadian capital, N'Djamena on April 19, 2024. Chad's decision comes one month after neighboring Niger suspended bilateral military cooperation with the United States.
This move has raised a myriad of questions about its implications, including whether it is linked to a negotiating maneuver by Chadian authorities to obtain a new, more economically viable agreement. It also begs the question of whether it is a new episode in the decline of American influence in the African Sahel region.
New Threat
A new threat to American military presence in the African Sahel region has emerged; Chadian authorities hint at the possibility of terminating an agreement with Washington on defining the rules for American military personnel in N'Djamena. This could be outlined as follows:
1. Suspension of US military activities at the Adji Kossei Air Base:
Reports from Chad, released on April 19, 2024, revealed that Chad's Air Force Chief of Staff Idriss Amine ordered the United States to halt activities at the Adji Kossei Air Base near the capital N'Djamena. This base, operated by the French army, houses American troops. The reports indicated that this decision was actually made on April 4 but was disclosed about two weeks later.
A US State Department spokesperson said the US is engaged in ongoing conversations with Chadian officials about the future of the countries' security partnership. However, these consultations are expected to be focused on after the presidential elections in Chad, scheduled for May 6, 2024. N'Djamena is currently preparing for its first presidential elections since the assassination of the former president, Idriss Deby, in April 2021.
2. Threat of canceling the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Washington and N'Djamena:
CNN cited intelligence sources as saying that Chad's Chief of Air Staff, Idriss Amine, allegedly sent a letter to the US defense attaché threatening to cancel the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).
This agreement facilitates the work of military personnel in N'Djamena, where about 100 American soldiers are stationed. The SOFA agreement determines the rules and conditions for US military personnel to operate in the country.
While the Chadian military official's letter to the US defense attaché did not directly order the US military to leave the country, the CNN report cited sources as saying that all US forces would have to leave the French base in N'Djamena. Amine's letter specifically mentioned the US Special Operations Task Force (SOTF) at the base, an important hub for US Special Operations Forces in the region.
3. The spreading contagion in the Sahel region:
The recent military council's move comes a month after Niger took a similar but more stringent stance toward the US. The ruling military council in Niamey announced the cessation of bilateral military cooperation with Washington and demanded that American troops stationed at two strategic military bases leave the country. In recent days, the US has agreed to withdraw its forces from Niger, indicating a further decline in Western, including American, influence in the region, at a time when Russian influence is growing in the African Sahel.
Some reports have warned of the possibility of erosion of US influence in Chad, especially if negotiations with local authorities fail to reach a new agreement ensuring the continuity of US forces in N'Djamena. This would result in the United States losing access to the Adji Kossei Air Base after it lost its strategic base in Agadez, Niger. This loss would negatively affect US surveillance capabilities in the African Sahel region.
Multiple Interpretations
The recent stance taken by Chadian authorities came as a surprise. Even US American officials expressed surprise at the decision made by N'Djamena's ruling military council. Particularly since Chad has long been a key partner for the West in the African Sahel region. This explains the multiple interpretations attempting to analyze the reasons behind N'Djamena's recent decision.
The main interpretations can be outlined as follows:
1. Chad maneuvering to secure a better agreement:
Some US reports have suggested that the message the Chadian Chief of Staff sent to the US defense attaché did not come through normal diplomatic channels. This reinforces the view that Chadian authorities are maneuvering with the Americans to pressure them to renegotiate a new agreement granting N'Djamena more privileges and economic benefits.
2. Preparation for Chad's upcoming presidential elections:
Some assessments have not ruled out that the recent warnings by Chadian authorities are merely aimed at gaining more domestic support ahead of the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for May 6, 2024. The current head of the ruling military council in Chad, Mahamat Idriss Déby, is determined to win these elections, while opposition forces doubt the fairness of the electoral process.
This hypothesis might be strengthened by orders Déby gave to the military to impose control over escalating violence before the elections. Meanwhile, opposition groups and civil society have called for boycotting the ballot. Additionally, the government has barred some opposition leaders from entering the presidential race. Among those barred from running is Djimet Clement Bagaou, a former army colonel who is also the leader of the Democratic Party of Chadian People (PDPT). Another contender was Yaya Dillo Djerou, former leader of the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders and a relative of General Déby, who was killed in March in N'Djamena by troops who surrounded the party's headquarters. Dillo's supporters accuse Déby's regime of killing their leader because he was planning to run against his cousin in the upcoming elections.
3. Russian influence expanding in the Sahel region:
Some assessments attribute the sudden shift by Chadian authorities to the growing Russian influence in the African Sahel region. General Michael Langley, commander of the U.S. Africa Command (Africom), in a testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2024, hinted that Russia is making intensive efforts to control central Africa and the Sahel.
State-run Radio Television du Niger reported that Russia recently supplied Nigerien forces with modern military equipment, including advanced air defense systems. Additionally, reports emerged about the deployment of Russia's Africa Corps in Niger. Concurrently, US officials announced on April 19, 2024, Washington's withdrawal of its troops from Niger following a request from the country's ruling military council—which seized power in a coup in July 2023. Similarly, a report by the War Studies Institute in April 2024 suggested that Chad is the current target of Russian interests in the African Sahel region. The ruling military council in N'Djamena has begun forming alliances with other Russian-backed military councils in the Sahel region. This aligns with the Chadian authorities' efforts to strengthen ties with Moscow, as confirmed by a visit to Russia by Déby in January 2024.
4. Internal pressure on the Chadian military council:
The ruling military council in N'Djamena faces increasing pressure from within Chad amid mounting calls for disengagement from the West, particularly France and the United States. Niamey has witnessed repeated protests since 2021 demanding the departure of French troops, numbering over 1000. The recent Chadian authorities' stance toward US influence in the country might be an attempt to alleviate these pressures, especially with reports suggesting factions within the Chadian army favoring closer ties with Russia.
5. Chadian authorities' declining trust in alliances with the West:
Regional dynamics in the Sahel and successive setbacks for the West have created doubts within Chad's ruling military council regarding its alliances, particularly with France and the US. The West has been failing to protect its allies in the region from military coups. The most recent example is that of Niger, where President Mohamed Bazoum, a close ally to the West, was ousted in July 2023.
With Chad possibly being the next target of military coups in the Sahel and West Africa, the ruling military council in N'Djamena might explore alternatives to Western military partnerships. Closer ties with Russia may provide more reliable support for post-presidential elections.
Possible Scenarios
Chad currently serves as the cornerstone of Western presence in the African Sahel region, as other countries have already shifted towards closer ties with Russia. N'Djamena currently hosts the largest French military base in Africa. In January 2024, the United States and France were considering establishing a joint military base in Chad, which shows the country's strategic importance to the West.
In this context, three possible scenarios can be envisaged regarding Chad's recent stance towards the US, which can be outlined as follows:
First Scenario: Reaching a new agreement with the US:
This scenario assumes that the current escalatory stance by Chad's military council is merely an attempt to pressure the US into granting further privileges, especially economic ones. Consequently, a new agreement between the two countries is expected to be reached soon, especially after the presidential elections in May 2024. Through this deal, Washington would secure a long-term military base, ensuring its continued presence in Chad and the wider Sahel region. The US could also potentially expand its presence within Chad following an understanding to withdraw its troops from Niger.
Second Scenario: Increasing Chadian alignment with Russia:
This scenario assumes that Chadian authorities will gradually disengage from the West, particularly France and the US, and work to enhance the country's alignment with Russia. This is based on reports indicating Moscow's current intensive efforts to gradually increase its influence within Chad to undermine Western influence. This conjecture is supported by statements from Malian officials in early April 2024, indicating Chad's interest in joining the new Russian-backed Sahel alliance, comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. There seems to be growing concern among Chadian authorities about the region's rapprochement with Russia, leading N'Djamena to integrate into this context and thus seek closer ties with Moscow.
N'Djamena's recent decision to suspend US military activities at the Adji Kossei Air Base may signal further erosion of Western influence in Chad, particularly as Moscow is adamant about strengthening its influence and ending Western presence there. Consequently, it cannot be ruled out that the US will be compelled to withdraw its forces from Chad in the near future, and a similar decision regarding French troops in the country will potentially follow. This would mark a significant turning point in the region's Western-Russian rivalry.
Third Scenario: Achieving balance in foreign relations:
This proposition posits that Chad would attempt to adopt a more balanced foreign policy. It could maintain close relations with the West, including the US while opening channels of communication with Russia and strengthening partnerships with Moscow's allies in the Sahel region. This approach may align with statements made by Mahamat Déby, who hinted at seeking cooperation with various international powers.
Late Chadian president Idriss Déby succeeded in adopting a balanced approach in 2017 when he established military relations with Russia, followed by agreements for technical military cooperation. However, achieving this balance once more appears highly uncertain in the current global and regional power dynamics. This uncertainty is particularly pronounced in the African Sahel region amidst heightened competition between Russia and the West, potentially leading to further instability in Chad and possibly a military coup d’état.
In conclusion, while all these scenarios remain plausible, the second appears to be the most likely amidst the current geopolitical dynamics in the African Sahel region. It may, however, require more time to materialize, especially if negotiations with Washington fail to reach a more beneficial agreement for N'Djamena. After winning the elections, President Mahamat Idriss Deby is likely to seek to strengthen alignment with Russia. Russia seems more prepared to provide direct security to the Chadian regime amidst increasing internal pressures, whether from political opposition forces rejecting the regime's rule or from within the ruling Zaghawa tribe over some policies adopted by the Déby family, including Mahamat Idriss Déby's stance on the civil war in Sudan.
