The United Nations Security Council Resolution, on October 28, 2022, unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) for twelve months.
It urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to agree on a new road map to deliver presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible and form a Libyan unified government able to govern across the country.
New Resolutions
The implications of UN Security Council Resolution 2656 adopted on Libya on October 28 can be outlined as follows:
1. Extending UNSMIL’s Mandate:
The mandate was extended for a year to October 31, 2023. The UN Security Council also welcomed the appointment of Abdoulaye Bathily as Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Libya and Head of UNSMIL. The Council also urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to engage constructively and fully with the Special Representative in fulfillment of his mandate.
2. The need for implementing all previous resolutions:
The UN Security Council regretted that the outcome of the roadmap adopted by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) was not fully implemented. It noted that the goals and principles implied in the roadmap continue to be relevant to the political process.
The Council’s resolution also urged all Libyan stakeholders and international actors involved in Libya to agree on a new roadmap to hold presidential and parliamentary elections. It underlined the need for an inclusive, comprehensive national dialogue and reconciliation process under the oversight of the Presidential Council.
3. Rejecting military approaches:
The Council called upon all parties to refrain from violence or any other actions that could escalate tensions, exacerbate conflicts and undermine the political process. It threatened sanctions against parties threatening the peace, stability or security of Libya or obstructing the elections. It demanded full compliance by all Member States with the arms embargo imposed under resolution.
The resolution underscores the need for implementing the 23 October 2020 ceasefire agreement in full, including the Action Plan agreed by the 5+5 Joint Military Commission in Geneva on 8 October 2021.
4. Withdrawal of foreign troops:
Referring to Turkey and Russia, the Council called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces, foreign fighters, and mercenaries from Libya without further delay. A response to this call is not likely in the foreseen future.
5. All Libyan actors welcoming the Resolution:
A majority of Libyan parties welcomed the Security Council’s resolution. The government led by parliament-appointed Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga welcomed the extension of the UNSMIL, while outgoing Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, head of the national unity government, emphasized that his government will adhere to the road map aimed at holding the elections in time.
Welcoming the resolution, the Presidential Council, headed by Mohamed al-Menfi, called upon all parties to cooperate with the new Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General.
Head of the High Council of State Khalid al-Mishri, said the resolution is in line with the Council’s vision for resolving the crisis and achieving stability.
The positions taken by Libyan actors show that the UN Security Council resolution was worded in a way that does not pose threats to any of the parties involved in the conflict in Libya.
Complicated Contexts
The latest UN Security Council resolution on Libya comes as part of dynamics that developed in the issue in recent days. These can be outlined as follows:
1. Threats of reoccurrence of military escalation:
Eastern Libya military commander Khalifa Haftar warned that he may move to “a decisive liberation war” if peaceful efforts to get foreign troops and mercenaries out of the country fail. He was referring to Turkey. Haftar believes that Ankara is pushing the country into war. Hafatr’s latest escalation came after Turkey and the government led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh signed two military agreements expected to reinforce Turkey’s military influence in western Libya.
2. Notable French moves:
In recent weeks, French officials held intensified meetings with Libyan political actors. French Special Envoy to Libya, Paul Soler and French ambassador to Libya and French Ambassador to Libya, Mostafa Mihraje met with Speaker of the Libyan parliament Aguila Saleh, Head of the High Council of State Khalid al-Mishri, parliament-appointed prime minister Fathi Bashaga, outgoing Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, and Deputy Head of the Libyan Presidential Council, Abdullah Al-Lafi.
The meetings coincided with France’s preparations for re-opening its embassy in Tripoli, which shows that Paris seeks to play an essential role in shaping the anticipated political process in Libya.
3. Efforts to form a new government:
Western media reported that a new plan was devised following recent talks between Agiula Saleh and Khaled al-Mishri in Morocco. The plan which provides for the formation of a new reconciliation government is currently being carried out in coordination between the House of Representatives and the High Council of State.
If the reports prove accurate, the agreement is expected to find a new figure to replace both Bashaga, who failed several times to enter the capital Tripoli, al-Dbeibeh who is becoming increasingly isolated in the country. Al-Mishri is now backing efforts to remove al-Dbeibeh especially after he backed al-Mishri’s rival in the recent elections at the High Council of State, held in August 2022.
4. Continued constitutional stalemate:
The vote on a new constitution showed continued disagreement between the House of Representatives and the High Council of State. Council members unanimously voted for the draft constitution preventing military personnel and dual-citizens from running in the presidential elections, a move likely to make it harder to hold the elections in time.
Potential Implications
Potential implications of the current international efforts can be outlined as follows:
1. Rolling out a new roadmap:
The recent resolutions on Libya by the UN Security Council strengthened reports released weeks ago about ongoing talks between regional and international powers involved in Libya to roll out a new roadmap, leading to parliamentary and presidential elections. Caroline Hurndall, the U.K. Ambassador in Libya, alluded that a meeting hosted by London in late October 2022 revolved around an agreement on the need for laying a constitutional foundation to pave the way to the elections.
2. Replicating the Skhirat Agreement:
Some assessment noted that the current talks about a new roadmap might lead to an agreement on forming a new presidential council and a small-size executive government, replicating the Government of National Accord and the Presidential Council, formed as a result of the Skhirat Agreement, reached in December 2015. The new entities are to feature wider agreement about the elements of the new executive authority. The proposal is perhaps reinforced by the recent UN Security Council resolution, which called for forming a new unified government that can govern across Libya.
3. Excluding the military escalation scenario:
Although armed clashes remain likely in the coming period, as a result of Haftar’s recent escalation, a majority of assessments exclude this scenario, especially after Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Yael Lempert reiterated Washington’s rejection of any solutions through military means and a resurgence of the conflict in Libya.
To conclude, the UN Security Council resolution on Libya does not produce any practical solutions to the major issues, as it fails to get a roadmap approved and to reinforce measures aimed at holding new elections. It can be said that the new position of the Security Council is an attempt to preempt any military escalation. In view of continued internal rifts about the constitutional base, and the continued regional and international disagreement, Dbeibeh is likely to take advantage of the whole situation to stay in power.
