Recent reports in the international press revealed the increasing Iranian support to Taliban in Afghanistan. Over the past years, such information would have been considered as “fake news”, due to the strong support provided by Teheran to the Afghan Northern Alliance fighting the Taliban. However, the ongoing developments in the Middle East, generically, and in Afghanistan, particularly, led Teheran to shift its foreign policy towards Afghanistan.

Iranian Interests in Afghanistan

Iranian intervention in the Afghani affairs is not recent. Since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 by the NATO forces in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Tehran has been highly concerned about the situation in its neighboring country. Iran aimed to secure its border to prevent the crossing of al-Qaeda members attempting to escape US bombings of their former safe-haven in Afghanistan. The Mullah’s regime then had no real affinity with the Sunni jihadist organization created by Osama Ben Laden, despite that they shared similar views on regional policies. Yet, the Iranian rulers showed no intention of offering al-Qaeda members an exile in Iran.

The drug trafficking from Afghanistan has always been a massive challenge for the Iranian authorities, as confirmed in a recent study.[i] Due to the repercussions of drug trafficking on the Iranian population, Teheran attempted to intervene directly in Afghanistan to stop the influx of narcotics into Iran.

Thus, Iran has undertaken several actions to strengthen its influence in western Afghanistan, financing the construction of homes, hospitals, and schools to gain support of populations who share the same culture and sometimes the same language. Teheran anticipated that this strategy will lead the local rulers of western Afghanistan to fight al-Qaeda members and halt drug trafficking to Iran.

The Emergence of ISK

ISIS, the jihadist organization born in Iraq, has not only aimed to establish a new Caliphate around the Muslim world, but also to purify Islam from its “deviations.” Thus, it started targeting the Shi’ite community around the Muslim world, notably in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

Inspired by the creation of its counterpart in Iraq, the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISK) was proclaimed as the local branch of ISIS in Afghanistan in 2015. In July 2016, 80 Shi’ites were killed in a suicide attack in Kabul during a public demonstration and ISK claimed responsibility for the attack. Another attack against a Shi’ite mosque, during the celebration of Ashura in October 2016, killed 18 people. Despite that the Taliban are considered as Muslim rigorists, they condemned the attacks, describing them as “an attempt to divide the nation.”[ii]

Iran, with a Shi’ite majority population, has also been a target for the jihadist fighters of the Islamic State. The emergence of this new threat in Afghanistan, pushed Iran, which was for a long time a strong opponent of the Taliban, to consider collaborating with their former enemies to fight against ISIS. Taliban has perceived ISIS as a rival threatening its influence in the region. Accordingly, Taliban agreed to cooperate with Iran to fight ISIS.

In 2015, a secret meeting was organized in Teheran between Iranian officials and representatives of Taliban. [iii] Despite that Iranian officials denied the visit, many press articles revealed the collaboration between Iran and the Taliban to fight ISIL in Afghanistan. Teheran provided Taliban with the required weapons, funds and military training.[iv]

Threat to Central Asia

Sharing borders with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the stability of Afghanistan is vital for the former Soviet Republics. The connections between ISK and other jihadist groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), could destabilize the whole region. Thus, Iran, Russia and China have been highly concerned with fighting ISK. Russia and China, which fight jihadism movements in their own territories, are worried about the propagation of the Islamic State in Central Asia and its potential repercussions on their own security and interests.

Iran has played a significant role in establishing contacts between Russia and Taliban. In 2016, it organized a secret meeting between former Mullah Mansour and Russian officials[v] to discuss the fight against ISK. According to the New York Times, during his visit in Iran Mullah Mansour also probably met with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. A British press article reported another meeting was held in 2015 in Tajikistan between Russian President Vladimir Poutine and Mullah Mansour, but this report was denied by Russian officials.[vi]

As a strategy of diversification, Taliban tried to gain the support of both Moscow and Teheran, rather than relying on one source of support. The death of Mullah Mansour in US strike in May 2016 could be interpreted as an attempt by the US to cut Taliban ties with Russia and Iran. 

However Russia took the lead when Moscow hosted a regional conference[vii] about the security in Central Asia and Afghanistan in April 2017. This conference was boycotted by the US, as Washington accuses Moscow of undermining the former efforts to stabilize Afghanistan through backing Taliban in its fight against the official government of Kabul. Moscow, however, considers the strategy of the official Afghan government to fight against the Taliban, while turning a blind eye to ISIS, as a mistake. In response, Teheran has succeeded in creating a regional axis, including Taliban, despite the US objections.

Conclusion

While ISIS is being defeated in Iraq and Syria, another front is opening in Afghanistan backed by Iran and Russia. The creation of the Iran-Russia-Taliban axis enabled Tehran to fight ISIS, and weaken the Washington-backed government in Kabul. As Iran was surrounded by US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan fifteen years ago, Tehran’s current strategy aims to reduce the US military influence in its neighboring countries, even if President Trump recently announced a new US strategy for Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, even if in the short term, Tehran could achieve its objectives in Afghanistan, the Mullah’s regime should be concerned about the future of its eastern neighbor, even if ISIS is defeated. A collapse of the central government of Kabul could generate greater instability. Nobody can anticipate the chaos that would happen in case the central government has been weakened. Undermining the Afghani government could possibly lead to destabilizing Afghanistan, and increasing the influence of Taliban, which would not be the best guarantee for Iran’s security and interests.