The Middle East, particularly the Arab region, has witnessed numerous conflicts and crises over the last decade. These have plagued certain countries, transforming the region into a staging ground for conflicts, civil wars, external regional and international interventions, as well as proliferation of extremist and terrorist organizations and armed groups. This required the region's leading countries, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to reinstate stability, counter external interference that fueled destabilization and combat threats posed by terrorist groups. As a result, regional countries found themselves entangled in numerous conflicts and political crises. This is primarily due to the ambitious of certain nations to assert their hegemony and pursue their agendas in the region, notably, Turkey and Iran, along with their allies.
As the region gradually regained stability, many countries have embraced a new approach since the end of 2021. One that is based on the “zero problems” policy. This approach signifies the determination of some countries to eliminate, or at the very least, minimize tensions in their relations with other nations. This article delves into the factors driving this trend and explores its prominent manifestations. It also examines its potential to sustain regional stability in the foreseeable future, shedding light on its prospects.
Determinants of the “Zero Problem” Policy
Several compelling reasons have propelled the regional countries towards embracing the “zero problems” policy. Foremost is the realization that, after many decades of conflicts and wars, many nations have come to recognize that dialogue serves as the most effective approach to foster mutual understanding and resolve critical issues. These conflicts have left no victorious country. Turkey, for example, once celebrated for its economic accomplishments in the early 2000s, owed much of its success to positive engagement with neighboring countries, particularly Arab nations, through the "zero problems" policy. However, its economic fortunes took a downturn when it veered away from this policy, embroiling itself in conflicts and disputes with regional countries, notably during the Arab Spring. This affected Turkey’s economic cooperation with other regional countries, leading to significant damage to its own economy. As a result, Turkey was prompted to revert to the “zero problems” policy.
Iran, similarly, came to the realization that its policy of interventions, support for proxy actors, and fostering chaos in the region did not yield the desired outcomes of establishing alleged hegemony or garnering international acceptance. This is especially in light of the nuclear deal’s collapse and the region's tendency to form regional alliances to counter Iran. Moreover, as economic crises in the country degraded, the Iranian population took to the streets in protest, expressing their dissatisfaction with the ruling regime. All of this has pushed Tehran to de-escalate situations and engage in discussion with regional countries to negotiate agreements or lessen tensions.
For the Arab Gulf states, a driving force is their increased emphasis on internal development plans and the need to expedite efforts in restoring regional stability, recognizing that stability serves as the foundation for any progress and advancement. They prioritize dialogue and cooperation as fundamental approaches to problem-solving and aspire to achieve prosperity and development for all nations. Egypt also shares this motive, driven not only by the economic challenges it faces, which are prevalent across several regional countries, but also by the imperative to seek expanded avenues for foreign economic cooperation through dialogue.
Positive Results
The "zero problems" approach yielded numerous outcomes in terms of regional relations, the most notable of which are as follows:
1. Clearing in the air in the Gulf:
A noteworthy display of this conciliatory approach materialized in the form of the Al-Ula GCC Summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia in January 2021. This event successfully concluded a protracted dispute that spanned over three years between the Arab Quartet countries - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt – from one end and Qatar from another. It also reaffirmed the solidarity and support among the GCC nations against any potential threats. This summit cleared the way for the GCC countries' relations to return to their former strength, as well as the coordination of common stances on a variety of regional and international issues.
2. Improved Arab-Turkish relations:
The relations between the two sides saw many positive indicators, particularly following the Turkish earthquake in February. This has fostered a sense of empathy and solidarity within the region towards Ankara. Notably, there was a remarkable exchange of official visits between the involved parties, exemplified by the visit of the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry, to Ankara on April 13, 2023. This visit was preceded by a reciprocal trip from the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to Cairo on March 18. In addition, the first round of political consultations was held between Saudi Arabia and Turkey on April 10, as well as the four-way Moscow talks between Russia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey's deputy foreign ministers that was conducted on April 3 as part of the efforts to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations. These coincide with visits to Ankara by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani in March and His Highness Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in May 2022.
3. An Iranian-Gulf rapprochement:
This rapprochement has emerged as one of the most significant regional developments in recent years, mainly with the announcement by Saudi Arabia and Iran of the resumption of diplomatic relations on March 10, 2023, following undisclosed talks in Beijing mediated by the Chinese government. This was followed by an invitation from Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi to visit the Kingdom. Former Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani also visited the UAE and met with Emirati leadership on March 16, 2023, while Iran announced on April 4, 2023 the appointment of an ambassador to the UAE after 8 years. It is no secret that this rapprochement is vital for reducing regional tensions, increasing prospects for resolving conflicts in the region, particularly the Yemeni crisis, and achieving agreements on many common concerns, all of which may improve regional stability.
Future Bets
There is no doubt that dialogue and the willingness for cooperation creates the ideal environment for achieving regional security and stability. It also allows all parties to benefit from the potential joint benefits of regional cooperation, thus contributing to achieving the aspirations of different countries for development and economic prosperity.
There is also no doubt that the Arab Gulf states, led by the United Arab Emirates, have a strong desire and eagerness to continue cooperation and joint coordination with various countries in the region and around the world. They also adopt dialogue as the primary method for resolving disputes and crises to focus on their ambitious economic plans.
However, the future and success of this approach will be largely determined by the behavior and policies of the region's neighbors, particularly Turkey, Iran, and Israel. It will also rely on how well some regional parties adhere to what has been agreed upon regarding the need to avoid policies that promote tension and instability. The problem, according to one expert, is not with Arab and Gulf policies, but with the policies and actions of other regional powers, which are undergoing various changes. The actions of these powers lead the Gulf and Arab states to combat them in order to maintain their security, stability, and interests.
Ensuring that the positive impacts of these conciliatory policies are felt by all is crucial, alongside recognizing the significance of fostering a culture of communication as the foundation for addressing any challenges that arise not only within the region, but globally as well.
