Iraq's announcement in July that it is prepared to mediate in the Yemeni crisis has sparked debate about Baghdad's expanding positive role in the regional arena and its attempts to intervene to achieve de-escalation of several regional crises. Over the past decades, Iraq experienced internal and external conflicts, wars and crises, and regional and international isolation. Over the past decades, Iraq's country image was one of a battleground for regional and international conflicts. However, this perception has shifted over the past three years, and this shift might not have occurred without Baghdad's mediation in regional crises, including facilitating the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran under a deal brokered by China in March 2023.
However, the diplomacy of mediation adopted by Baghdad was not conceivable after 2003, when the United States and its allies occupied Iraq and changed its political system. This was due to the complexity of the situation, the exacerbation of security, political, social, and economic conditions, as well as the negative impact of regional and international crises and conflicts on Iraq. Therefore, after 2014, Iraq recognized the need to disentangle itself or, at the very least, mitigate the repercussions of conflicts between certain regional parties and international powers on its own domestic situation. Because Iraq maintains ties with countries in the region, the more external tensions are eased, the more its own internal stability will improve.
Hence, Iraq emerged as a mediator in resolving several regional crises, a role that has been particularly noticeable in recent months. From its contribution to the restoration of relations between Riyadh and Tehran and its rumored potential role in a potential Iraqi mediation between Egypt and Iran, Iraq's emerging role culminated in its willingness to undertake a mediating role in the Yemeni crisis.
Diverse Mediation Roles
In fact, Iraq's mediating role and diplomacy are not something new. Iraq has had various experiences throughout its modern history after 1921 when it enjoyed strong relationships with its neighbors on the one hand and international powers on the other. This positioned Iraq as an accepted mediator in regional crises at that time. However, Iraq's recent restoration of this role in current regional crises is particularly notable for the following endeavors:
1. Paving the way to restoring Saudi-Iranian relations:
Iraq acted as a mediator to facilitate the resumption of Saudi-Iranian relations, further strained in 2016 following an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran by Iranian protesters in response to Saudi Arabia's execution of Shi’ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. This incident led to a deterioration in relations between the two regional rivals. In its mediating role in the emerging crisis, Iraq relayed messages between the two countries expressing the desire for dialogue. Subsequently, Iraq hosted direct talks between representatives of both countries to discuss key contentious issues, including regional security. These efforts culminated in an agreement to restore diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Tehran under a Chinese-brokered deal reached in March 2023. Iraq welcomed the landmark agreement and described it as a success for its own relevant efforts.
2. Attempting mediation between Egypt and Iran:
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the Iraqi government has taken on the role of mediator once again, this time attempting to mediate between Egypt and Iran after its success in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Reports indicate that the agenda of al-Sudani's visits to Cairo in March and June last year included mediation for restoring relations between Cairo and Tehran. The Iraqi government's objective is to achieve a breakthrough in negotiations between the two countries that would ultimately reestablish their bilateral relations.
3. Readiness to intervene in the Yemeni crisis:
Iraq has expressed its willingness to mediate and find a solution for the ongoing Yemeni crisis, sparked about nine years ago by the Houthi coup against the legitimate government. In this context, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, during a meeting with his Yemeni counterpart Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak in Baghdad on July 23 last year, announced that Iraq supports any political efforts that aim to stabilize the situation in Yemen. He stated that "Iraq is ready to take action to be part of the solution to the problems in the region and to address the situation in Yemen," further emphasizing that "dialogue in Yemen will lead to an improvement in the economic situation there."
4. Seeking de-escalation between the US and Iran:
Since 2019, Baghdad has attempted to play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran following the withdrawal of former US President Donald Trump's administration from the landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi sent delegations to both Washington and Tehran to help ease tensions. However, these efforts did not yield any significant results. In February 2023, discussions resurfaced regarding Iraqi mediation to reduce tensions between the United States and Iran. According to some reports, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein raised the issue during his visit to Washington. The Iranian Foreign Ministry at that time announced that Hussein carried a message from Washington to Tehran concerning nuclear negotiations. However, the US Department of State denied the claim.
Gains for Baghdad
Motives that may have driven Iraq to attempt to play a mediating role and positively contribute to regional conflict de-escalation can be outlined as follows:
1. Restoring Iraq's role as an influential regional actor:
Successive Iraqi governments, starting with Haider al-Abadi's, have sought to establish Baghdad as a regional player that can be integrated into the political and economic landscape of the region. In this context, Iraq has managed to convene several summit-level conferences, such as the trilateral summit between Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan on July 26, 2021, and the "Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership" in August 2021, which brought together France, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Iran. This conference served as a diplomatic initiative to reduce regional tensions and reaffirm Iraq's role as a mediator.
2. Moving away from the policy of axes:
Baghdad seeks to distance itself from the policy of axes and from conflicts between certain regional states or between them and international powers. Iraq aims to build a balanced network of relationships with both regional and international partners. Decision-makers in Baghdad recognize the dangers of aligning themselves exclusively with a specific regional or international axis against another, an awareness that has driven Iraq to adopt a diplomatic strategy of mediation to reduce tensions in regional crises and work towards establishing balanced relationships with other countries.
Furthermore, Baghdad aims to present a different impression to remove the prevailing perception that it is unable to break free from the Iranian influence imposed by Tehran-affiliated forces operating within the Iraqi state.
3. Escaping external pressures:
Undoubtedly, Iraq's success in reducing tensions within the region will contribute to freeing its foreign policy from pressures that are exerted when the interests of conflicting parties clash. This would save Iraq from being pulled into a state of polarization within the region. Additionally, the success of such mediations would also propel Iraq's regional role forward and portray it as a sovereign and responsible state committed to establishing regional stability.
4. Avoiding negative repercussions of conflicts:
Iraq is concerned about becoming a battleground for potential escalations between the United States and Iran or between Iran and other countries in the region. This underscores the significance of reducing such tensions or successfully mediating them, as it would positively impact achieving political and security stability within Iraq.
5. Enhancing external economic relations:
Iraq sees its role as a regional mediator as a positive factor for its domestic situation. After reaching an understanding, regional parties would likely seek to maintain Iraq's regional acceptance. This, in turn, could attract foreign investments to the Iraqi economy and increase trade volume with other countries.
Conditions for Success
Certain factors need to be in place for Iraq's diplomatic mediation to achieve its goals of regional de-escalation and attempting to resolve crises in the region. These include the following:
1. Maintaining good relations with all:
A crucial factor is the cultivation of positive relationships with all parties involved. Baghdad, particularly in recent years, has successfully built positive relationships with Arab and other regional countries. Iraq maintains good relations with Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Arab states, Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries, as well as Iran. This implies that Iraq is viewed as an acceptable mediator by these countries. These positive relations allow Iraq to potentially contribute to crisis resolution or, at the very least, reduce tensions among these nations.
2. Mediator neutrality:
Iraq strives to demonstrate that it remains neutral when it comes to regional disputes and conflicts. It aims to position itself as a mediator that doesn't favor any party over another, even considering that there are Iraqi political factions with close ties to Iran. The more Iraq can solidify its role as a neutral party, the more it can establish itself as a trustworthy mediator capable of contributing to regional de-escalation.
3. The willingness of involved parties for dialogue:
This has been evident in regional crises where Iraq has sought to play a positive role in an attempt to resolve them. Tehran, for instance, expressed its interest in Baghdad's mediation between Iran, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Arab countries, on the other. During his visit to Baghdad in February, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian welcomed the Iraqi government's efforts to enhance dialogue and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and welcomed Iraq's mediation for dialogue between Iran and Egypt. On the other hand, Aran countries show a desire to achieve regional de-escalation and address various outstanding issues, including those with Iran.
4. Continuing mediation efforts:
There has been a consistent pursuit of mediation across different Iraqi administrations, which was reflected in relevant efforts made by the governments of Haider al-Abadi ( 2014-2018), Adil Abdul-Mahdi (2018-2019), and then more significantly under Mustafa al-Kadhimi's government (2020–2022). The latter succeeded in convening several conferences that brought together rivaling or conflicting regional parties or parties in conflict, culminating in the successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The current government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has continued this approach, making efforts to mediate between Egypt and Iran and showing readiness to contribute to resolving the Yemeni crisis.
5. Enhancing domestic stability:
The continuation of Iraq's positive foreign policy and the active diplomacy of the settlement requires a stable domestic environment. Foreign policy is a reflection of the domestic situation. Suppose Iraqi governments cannot address their internal crises and achieve stability. In that case, they won't be capable of playing an active role in the regional arena, nor will they gain the trust of other countries.
Finally, it can be said that Iraq's diplomacy of mediation faces several obstacles that may hinder its progress, including challenges arising from the domestic Iraqi environment and regional and international environments. The Iraqi arena suffers from political crises that occasionally come to the forefront, while its politics are also influenced by factions with conflicting affiliations and orientations in the realm of foreign policy. The political process requires comprehensive reform to correct its course in a way that serves Iraq's interests in the region. Moreover, Iraqi foreign policy is not immune to the influence of the American factor, which means that no role of regional mediation can be played unless approved by the United States. Furthermore, Iran, the primary party in regional tensions, has a long history of crises with several countries over the past decades. Tehran's current move towards regional de-escalation is driven by internal pressures and regional and international isolation imposed on it over its nuclear program and interventions in the affairs of other countries.
All of this implies that the future of the diplomacy of mediation carried out by Iraq in regional crises may hinge on establishing the foundations for success and overcoming the obstacles and impediments it faces.
