With Donald Trump's phoenix-like rise in the Republican primaries, the specter of his return to the White House raises concerns about the future of American foreign policy. His resurgence as a frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election sparks questions about the potential direction of American foreign policy if he were to be re-elected. Key considerations include the specific policies he might adopt, the framework for his foreign policy, and how he would navigate the current volatile international landscape.

Notably, his candidacy aligns with the ongoing and uncertain conflict in Ukraine, which has significantly reshaped the geopolitical landscape and ushered in a new era of global competition between the United States, Russia, and China. Moreover, there are still questions about the Republican Party's position on the seemingly unsolvable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which continues to hinder progress in the region.

The rise of the MAGA current within the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump and his "America First" slogan, has raised concerns among moderate Republicans and Democrats. They worry that if this current were to regain power, it would lead to the implementation of policies that are self-destructive, chaotic, and unique, causing much more harm than anticipated.

Democratic criticism has recently intensified due to Republicans in Congress obstructing additional funding for the war in Ukraine. This obstruction comes at a critical juncture for Ukraine, as it is currently facing challenges in its ability to withstand the Russians on the battlefield. Critics specifically highlight the trends within the Republican party in Congress and the special relationship between President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. They also point to Tucker Carlson's trip to Moscow to interview Putin as part of this concerning trend, which is seen as a threat to the network of American alliances around the world.

US allies are currently for the worst-case scenario of Trump winning the White House again. There is widespread discussion in think tanks about strengthening the Western alliance before the presidential election to prevent any potential measures by a Republican president to undermine the Washington-led security and military system. This aims to make it challenging for the president to disrupt the ties between the US and close allies like Europe.

In the Republican Party, there is a faction advocating for a shift in the United States' focus towards the Chinese threat, leaving Europe to address the Russian threat independently, as they perceive it to be less perilous. However, Europe faces a pressing dilemma as it lacks the time and financial resources needed to attain what is known as "strategic independence." Over the years, Washington has diligently cultivated these alliances, and proponents of traditional alliances are apprehensive about the potential ramifications of Trump assuming power and the prospect of undermining numerous national security strategies, particularly NATO, which Trump has recently criticized once again.

A Second Trump Term: Potential shifts in foreign policy

The potential victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 election could have a significant impact on American foreign policy. According to an article by Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal, a Trump victory may result in the formation of an advisory team that shares his viewpoints, potentially reducing internal debate but increasing resistance from government officials. Furthermore, it is anticipated that Trump would prioritize American interests, engage in transactional dealings with world leaders, and introduce potential uncertainty for allies in regions such as Ukraine and Asia. 

Consequently, a Trump administration's foreign policy would likely prioritize immigration and border security, possibly employing controversial approaches, while also potentially shifting focus towards fossil fuels and traditional industries in climate policy.  Some elements of Trump's foreign policy, like his approach to certain leaders, might continue. However, concerns remain about potential conflicts of interest with Trump associates. International actors might view a second Trump term with skepticism due to uncertainties about long-term US policy direction.

The unyielding critique of Ukraine, United States allies, and broader international engagement by Trump, amplified by his adherents and right-leaning media platforms, seems to have significantly influenced public sentiment in recent years. Recent surveys and analyses have indicated this trend. 

In a new poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, an impressive 53% of Republicans expressed a preference for the United States to maintain a stance of non-involvement in global affairs rather than actively participate. This statistic marks the first time in the survey's 49-year history that a majority of Republicans have embraced such a perspective. Given the backing of his electoral base, Trump might be inclined towards embracing more assertive stances in foreign policy.

In considering the potential changes in foreign policy under a potential second term of the Trump administration, it is expected that there will be subtle shifts and strategic adjustments. President Trump's approach to global affairs has been focused on advancing American interests through assertive nationalism, as seen in the "America First" doctrine. 

Within this framework, it is likely that Trump's unconventional diplomatic methods will continue, involving direct engagement with former adversaries and a preference for transactional diplomacy. This could lead to renewed efforts to address ongoing conflicts or geopolitical tensions, possibly using personal diplomacy to navigate complex international dynamics.

Moreover, the administration's skepticism toward multilateralism and established global institutions is likely to continue, leading to further adjustments of existing international agreements seen as harmful to American interests. By prioritizing bilateralism and ad hoc alliances, Trump may attempt to reshape global governance while protecting American sovereignty.

Economic priorities are set to continue leading the administration's foreign policy agenda, with trade policy playing a crucial role. Ongoing confrontations with economic competitors, particularly China, are expected as the administration seeks to readjust trade relations to address perceived imbalances and boost domestic industries.

In the realm of security and defense, a nuanced approach is envisioned, characterized by a recalibration of America's global military presence. This involves advocating for burden-sharing within alliances like NATO, encouraging allies to take on greater defense responsibilities, and potentially prioritizing strategic retrenchment in specific theaters to align military deployments with core national security priorities.

Overall, the trajectory of foreign policy under a potential second term of the Trump administration is marked by a mix of continuity and evolution. Rooted in a strong commitment to advancing American interests, Trump's approach is set to navigate the complexities of an increasingly multipolar world with a blend of pragmatism and assertiveness, shaping the contours of global affairs in the years to come.