The Table of Six, an alliance comprising six Turkish opposition parties, collectively known as the Nation Alliance, made a significant announcement on March 6, 2023. They declared Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the pro-secular Republican People's Party (CHP), as the primary challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming landmark presidential election scheduled for May 14.

Apart from CHP, the alliance comprises five other parties, namely the Good Party (nationalist and Kemalist), the Felicity Party (Islamist), the Democrat Party (liberal-conservative), the Democracy and Progress Party (liberal-conservative), and the Future Party (liberal-conservative). The decision to nominate Kilicdaroglu as the opposition's candidate came as a surprise to President Erdogan, who had earlier challenged the opposition to name a single presidential nominee. This move by the opposition could significantly boost Kilicdaroglu's chances of winning the election outright in the first round.

However, the nomination of Kilicdaroglu is not without challenges and opportunities, particularly due to the circumstances surrounding the announcement. This decision almost led to the collapse of the Table of Six. Nonetheless, their success in agreeing on a single candidate could increase their chances of victory in the elections.

Context of the Nomination

The Table of Six alliance's decision to nominate Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their candidate for the upcoming presidential election was reached amidst several challenges that had the potential to derail the alliance.

1.    Withdrawal of the Good Party:

The agreement among opposition leaders to nominate Kilicdaroglu as their common candidate for the upcoming presidential elections was reached amidst a worrisome situation for the entire alliance. The decision was made after a prolonged period of discord that nearly caused the alliance to fracture. Three days prior to announcing their agreement, the leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, declared her party's withdrawal from the alliance and rejection of Kilicdaroglu's candidacy. Aksener accused the alliance's parties of ignoring the people's wishes and advocated for the nomination of either Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, or Mansur Yavas, the mayor of Ankara, who are members of the CHP and, according to polls, have a higher chance of defeating Erdogan. Aksener indicated that her party would rejoin the alliance if Kilicdaroglu agreed to nominate either one of the two mayors.

Later, after Aksener's meeting with the two mayors on March 6, who dissuaded her from leaving the alliance, she unexpectedly appeared alongside the leaders of the other parties during the announcement of Kilicdaroglu's nomination. The Good Party leader's return to the alliance was facilitated by Kilicdaroglu's acceptance of her proposal to appoint the two mayors as vice presidents if he wins the election.

2.    Problematic power-sharing agreement:

The leaders of the Table of Six parties came to an agreement regarding Kilicdaroglu's nomination after he promised to involve the other parties of the alliance as partners in governance, with shared responsibility for running the state. Along with this announcement, the leaders signed a 12-article agreement that serves as a roadmap for the upcoming elections and beyond. The key points of the roadmap are:

a. Completion of constitutional amendments to transition to a new, strengthened parliamentary system as soon as possible through the newly formed parliament after the general elections.

b. The leaders of the Nation Alliance parties will act as vice presidents during this transition process.

c. The president will use their powers in accordance with the principles of participation, consultation, and consensus during the transition.

d. Ministerial portfolios will be distributed among the parties based on their respective share of votes secured in the May legislative elections. The president will be responsible for appointing and removing ministers in consultation with the parties' leaders.

e. The powers of cabinet members (ministers and vice presidents) will be outlined in relevant presidential decrees that adhere to the constitution and law.

f. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will be appointed as vice presidents to undertake specific duties that the president deems necessary.

Collective Leadership

The power-sharing agreement reached by the opposition alliance highlights a major weakness in the upcoming elections. If Kilicdaroglu wins the vote, a "presidential council" consisting of the leaders of the five other opposition parties in the Nation Alliance will take over to run the state. These leaders will act as vice presidents and the president will have to consult with them and obtain their approval to exercise his powers. They will be granted certain powers by a presidential decree, according to Kilicdaroglu's statement after his nomination was announced. He stated that he would govern Turkey through consensus and consultation and that the other party leaders would act as assistants to the president.

However, this agreement poses a danger as it could lead to political instability in Turkey. Differences in ideologies among the secular, Islamist, rightist, nationalist, and leftist parties that make up the Nation Alliance could cause a rift among their leaders when it comes to making decisions on foreign policy, internal affairs, and the economy.

President Erdogan is likely to exploit this division by evoking fears among voters about the risks of political and institutional instability if the opposition takes over. He may argue that Turkey would be ruled by six people who lack mutual understanding and harmony, citing the withdrawal of the leader of the Good Party from the alliance only a few days before Kilicdarogolu's nomination was made public.

Challenges Facing Kilicdaroglu in the Turkish Presidential Election

The opposition's nomination of the CHP leader, Kilicdaroglu, to challenge President Erdogan in the upcoming presidential election faces several challenges that may reduce his chances of winning. The following are the main challenges facing him:

1.    Kilicdaroglu's perceived inability to defeat Erdogan:

Some doubt that Kilicdaroglu can defeat Erdogan for the same reasons cited by opposition parties rejecting his nomination. Most notably, because Kilicdaroglu is a secular Alawite, a significant number of conservatives and Islamists may not vote for him. Additionally, Kilicdaroglu's lack of charisma is Erdogan's primary strength that helped him win elections over the past two decades. Moreover, Kilicdaroglu does not have a record of accomplishments to his credit that would gain the public's trust, as he has not held a senior executive position. In contrast, the popularity of the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, respectively, has been increasing since they took office. This is the primary reason for Aksener's insistence on nominating one of them for the presidential race, while Kilicdaroglu ranked last in most opinion polls.

2.    Risks of cracks in the Opposition Alliance:

The upcoming presidential elections on May 14, 2023, pose a risk of surprises that could cause cracks in the Table of Six alliance. The position of the leader of the Good Party, who pulled out of the alliance in protest of Kilicdaroglu’s nomination, highlights this possibility. Other dynamics that could cause a rift within the opposition alliance include the inclusion of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party. The leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, is an anti-Kurdish nationalist who rejects the idea of allying or coordinating with this party in the coming elections. On several occasions, Aksener rejected the pro-Kurdish party's joining the alliance or getting any ministerial portfolio if the opposition wins the elections. However, the CHP is willing to coordinate with the Peoples' Democratic Party to garner Kurdish votes, which could tip the balance in favor of the opposition.

Furthermore, there is a risk of nationalist and right-wing parties pulling out of the Table of Six alliance and nominating another figure to replace Kilicdaroglu if opinion polls show that his nomination does not receive widespread popular support, and his popularity does not grow enough to defeat Erdogan. This possibility is further supported by the fact that the Felicity Party, a member of the Table of Six, has proposed the nomination of former President Abdullah Gul, who defected from the Justice and Development Party, as a consensus candidate in the presidential elections. Reports in November 2022 indicated that Gul was pushing to find a candidate from the opposition to replace Kilicdaroglu, with right-wing parties, including the Felicity Party, the Good Party, the Future Party, and the Democracy and Progress Party, naming a presidential candidate. These reports also suggested that Gul was indirectly encouraged to run for president.

Existing Chances

Despite the aforementioned challenges, the Turkish opposition alliance still has a chance to win the upcoming elections. Here are some factors that may work in their favor:

1.    The success of the 2019 municipal elections:

In the March 2019 municipal elections, the opposition parties joined forces for the first time and formed the Nation Alliance. They agreed on nominating candidates to avoid wasting votes, which led to the AK Party losing 11 main municipalities, including Ankara and Istanbul, which had been under the party's control since 2002. The victory in Istanbul, in particular, was significant, as the opposition united behind the candidate of the Republican People's Party, Ekrem Imamoglu, who defeated the AK Party's candidate Benali Yildirim and became the mayor of the city. The opposition alliance is hoping to replicate this success by standing united and supporting the CHP leader in the presidential elections.

2.    Taking advantage of Turkey’s crises:

Kilicdaroglu's nomination came one month after a devastating earthquake struck southeastern Turkey, killing over 45,000 people. The opposition aims to leverage this disaster to erode Erdogan's popularity in the upcoming elections. Following the earthquake, opposition leaders were quick to criticize the government for not responding rapidly and for failing to enforce building codes. Kilicdaroglu stated, "If there is one person responsible for this, it is Erdogan. It is this ruling party that has not prepared the country for an earthquake for 20 years."

Erdogan, in turn, seeks to neutralize any negative impact the earthquake might have on his chances in the elections. In early March, he announced that the government would immediately begin construction of 30,000 residential buildings and aims to move an additional 500,000 survivors to 100,000 prefabricated houses within two months before the elections, which are slated for May 14.

The opposition also intends to capitalize on the worsening economic conditions, with inflation at a record 25-year high, the lira losing value against the dollar, and living standards plummeting due to soaring prices. In their election manifesto, the Table of Six alliance pledged to work to reduce inflation steadily to double digits within two years and restore the value of the lira.

However, Erdogan recently took steps to improve living standards. His government raised minimum wages twice in 2022 and increased them by 30% in a recent revision, while also implementing measures to boost energy subsidies. In mid-February, Erdogan announced new packages to support citizens as new needs arise in the coming days, which helped him regain some of his popularity.

The Kurdish Factor

The position of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), the main Kurdish party, on supporting Kilicdaroglu in the elections is crucial. With 67 seats, the HDP is now the third-largest party in parliament. It has a voter base of 6 to 7 million, often referred to as the kingmaker because its position plays a crucial role in determining the election results. In the 2019 municipal elections, the HDP withdrew its candidates in major municipalities such as Ankara and Istanbul and urged its supporters to vote for the candidates of the Republican People's Party, who won the race. Therefore, the pro-Kurdish HDP's declared support for the Republican People's Party may increase the pro-secular party's chances in the coming elections.

The HDP has an open attitude towards supporting Kilicdaroglu. After Kilicdaroglu's nomination was announced, the leader of the HDP, Midhat Sancar, said he might back Kilicdaroglu in the presidential elections "if we manage to agree on the main principles following clear and candid talks." Sancar added, "We are waiting for the opposition's nominee to meet with us. We are prepared to cooperate in the elections."

However, the Table of Six alliance has concerns about including or publicly coordinating with the pro-Kurdish party in the coming elections, fearing losing nationalist votes and being associated with terrorism. The pro-Kurdish HDP faces a potential ban by the Constitutional Court on charges of supporting terrorism and being the political arm of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), designated as a terrorist group. Furthermore, the nationalist Good Party, the second-largest party in the opposition alliance, refused to sit at the same table with the pro-Kurdish party.

In conclusion, the upcoming elections in Turkey may well be the biggest challenge that Erdogan has faced since he came to power in 2002 due to the different political and economic circumstances in which they will be held. Additionally, they will be the first elections to be held after the new presidential system was put in place for a full term in 2018, which the opposition blames for the country's deterioration due to its incapability of running the state. Therefore, the opposition wants the parliamentary system to be reinstated. It can be said that the elections, which will be held only a few months before the 100th anniversary of the Republic is celebrated in October 2023, will determine Turkey's internal situation and foreign policy in the years to come. They will also determine whether Erdogan will be able to celebrate the anniversary of the republic that he reshaped after giving up a significant part of the legacy of its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Furthermore, they will determine whether he will succeed in winning a third presidential term or lose it to a new and different leader.