Climate change and the energy sector are closely intertwined. Over the past decades demand for fossil fuel has particularly increased, leading to the increase of carbon emissions. This, in turn, has resulted in the phenomenon of global warming, which has affected climate on a global scale, and may have even worse consequences in the future.
The infrastructure of the energy sector all over the world may be negatively impacted by the extreme weather, as production and transport facilities will not operate properly due to the bad weather.
In order to find a way out of this complicated situation, three steps should be taken:
1. Short-term protective measures should be implemented so that the effects of the extreme weather on the international energy infrastructure can be contained.
2. More carbon capture technologies should be developed and used extensively.
3. A phasing plan should be drawn up for increasing the use of renewable energy in the economic sectors all over the world.
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Due to the growth of world population and economic activity, global demand for fossil fuel has increased continuously. Natural gas, coal and oil are the main resources of energy; they contribute to three quarters of the energy consumed worldwide.
Over-dependence on fossil fuel caused much harm to the environment. It resulted, for instance, in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, let alone global warming which has resulted in unstable weather conditions in many countries, expected to become even more dangerous in the near future.
2020 was an exceptional year as far as greenhouse gas emissions are concerned. It witnessed a noticeable decrease in these gasses because of the lack of demand for fossil fuel in such main sectors as transport and electricity with the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and the reduction of economic activity. It is noteworthy here that in 2019 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 104% compared to 2018, reaching 59.1 gigatons of CDE, according to the UN Environment Programme.
When it comes to geographical distribution, China, US, EU countries and India were responsible for 55% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2019. Adding Russia and Japan makes the percentage 65%.
Fossil fuel used in the energy sector produced about 38.5 gigatons of CDE in 2019 (i.e. 65% of total emissions resultant from economic activities in 2019). A group of scientists believe that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions (including carbon emissions) in the past decades resulted in global warming, which, in turn, brought about waves of extreme weather (e.g. different rainfall patterns, exceptional drought, unexpected hurricanes and dangerous waves of cold or heat).
According to some studies, average global temperature may rise by 2.6- 4.8 c by 2100, compared to pre-Industrial levels, if the Paris Agreement is not put into effect.
The Impact of Climate Change on Energy
According to international institutions, global climate may become more unstable in the next decades if the Earth's temperature continues to rise because of greenhouse emissions. It is expected that the world will witness extreme weather phenomena, including very cold or very hot weather, unexpected hurricanes and extreme drought. This may constitute a serious challenge for the global energy sector, evidently in the following:
1- The demand for cooling systems or heating systems may increase:
As the world is expected to witness extreme cold or heat waves, demand for fuel-run cooling or heating systems is more than likely to increase. This has already been noticed in many parts of the world, notably Europe, the Middle East and Asia. On average, demand for cooling systems is expected to cause the demand for electricity to jump from 2199 terawatt/h (in 2020) to 2691, according to IEA. Undoubtedly, this increase was caused by many reasons, one of the most important of which is climate change.
2- Infrastructure related to fossil fuel may face difficulties:
The infrastructure for producing and transporting fossil fuel may be negatively affected by climate change. Production of oil and gas may suffer as a result. To be more accurate, such extreme weather conditions as tropical cyclones may cause great damage to marine platforms and land infrastructure, and repeatedly disrupt production. A similar situation has occurred in the USA recently as a result of cyclones along the coast of the Mexican Gulf.
In addition, the infrastructure necessary for transporting energy, such as oil and gas pipelines, may be affected by the floods, hurricanes and heavy rainfall which can do transport and storage facilities a lot of harm.
3. Thermal power stations may cease working:
If the temperature continues to rise, thermal power stations may have to be operated at reduced capacity or even halted, as the gas and steam turbines cannot endure the very hot weather. Besides, some power stations may be subject to such dangers as landslides, sea level rise, and hurricanes. Nuclear power plants are no exception; reactors, cooling equipment, control systems and backup generators can stop working because of such extreme conditions and phenomena.
3- Hydropower capacity may be diminished:
Extreme weather patterns may affect the hydrological cycle which, in turn, would influence the production of hydropower. In some regions, lack of rain and high temperatures may increase the loss of water (through evaporation). This will reduce electricity production or halt it altogether.
Lately, there have been preliminary indications in some parts of the world that hydropower capacity was affected by the severe droughts which resulted from climate change. According to Wood Mackenzie, most South-American countries, including Brazil and Argentina, may suffer low water levels behind their dams, which would endanger hydroelectric generation. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico's estimates show that hydroelectricity in Brazil may diminish by 5.5 gigawatts in October and November if water levels at Brazilian dams remain low.
4- Renewable energy generation may be endangered:
Unstable weather patterns and conditions pose challenges to the generation of electricity from solar energy and wind. Some regions are expected to become so overclouded that the ability to generate power through solar panels will be affected. Climate change also affects wind strength and speed. In 2021, it has been rather difficult to generate electricity via wind turbines in Europe due to unsuitable weather conditions. According to Vortex, which provides modeled wind resource data for the wind industry, the wind blowing across Northern Europe has dropped by 15% on average, the reason (according to scientists) being the so-called 'global stilling' phenomenon. In this respect, it was noticed that wind contribution to electricity production in UK has fallen from 18% of last year's total electricity production to 2.5% in September 2021.
Suggested Paths
In the light of the foregoing, it is obvious that climate change and the world energy sector are closely related. An important question is: Where should we start in order to limit carbon emissions without suffering losses in energy production? It is not likely that the world will be able to completely get rid of fossil fuel soon; such a solution is not realistic, as it involves too many economic and technical problems. Alternatively, it is wiser to adopt parallel paths so that we can strike a proper balance between the objective of securing energy for the world and that of reducing carbon emissions, as follows:
1. The first path:
In order to limit the effect of extreme weather on power industry, certain protective measures need to be taken, including updating infrastructure, as well as adopting technical and engineering solutions that would adapt production and transport facilities to the severe weather conditions. It is also important to re-direct production and transfer lines so that they should not pass through high-risk areas.
2. The second path:
This entails that the oil and gas industry embrace carbon- capture technologies more openly and extensively, because such technologies are necessary, in the short run, for reducing carbon emissions. Besides, energy efficiency programs in various economic activities should be enhanced and improved.
3- The third path:
According to international organizations, such as IEA and IRENA, in order to reach net zero emissions by 2050, the world cannot choose but use clean energy on a wider scale. In order to maintain a pre-Industrial level of temperature (1.5°C), the world needs to keep adding new capacities of renewable energy (840 gigawatts per year) till 2050. This requires huge investments that would amount to 131 trillion dollars.
