On February 6, 2015, the White House released the new “National Security Strategy” report which indicates the strategic benchmark of US foreign policy in the next three years. Unlike the last report in 2010 labeling China as US’s major threat with “pivot to Asia” policy, the U.S. downplayed the “China Threat” this time given that the emerging ISIS expansion and the Ukraine crisis are positioned as a more urgent policy priority. It is clear that the world’s new power structure has transformed how the two largest economies deal with each other.
Behind the policy transformation, there are three major factors to push the US to reevaluate its previous strategy of counterbalancing China. First, Russia’s hard-line stance in Ukraine crisis posed an unprecedented challenge to the US-dominated world order which makes Americans more cautious of infuriating China to avoid multiple confrontations at one time. Second, due to the gradual deterioration of its economic power, US can’t afford to launch military confrontation with China in East Asia. Three, in order to maintain its leadership in global affairs, China’s positive participation, and cooperation in issues like carbon emission reduction, Afghanistan post-war reconstruction, are indispensable for the US.
Although US’s new national security strategy abandoned the idea of containing China by itself, the strategy of playing cards subtly in China’s neighboring areas still remains active.
US Maritime strategy in the Asia-Pacific region:
Although the official and non-governmental communications between China and the US increased significantly, some US policymakers and scholars have miscalculated China’s maritime strategy. There is a common conception in American military circles, envisioning China’s growing military budget and spurting naval forces as a challenge to the maritime interests of the United States. This miscalculation may lead to the escalation of maritime conflict between the two countries.
In order to balance China’s naval development, the US has intervened comprehensively in maritime territorial disputes involving China in the Asia-Pacific region by carrying out military cooperation with China’s neighboring countries. On one hand, the US connived at Japanese constitutional amendment of lifting its military restriction since the World War II, intensified their joint military drill and encouraged Japanese cruise in the South China Sea. On the other hand, the US is actively lobbying South Korea to deploy THAAD missile defense system to diminish Chinese military deterrent ability against the United States. Besides, the defense agreements between US and Philippines and Australia guarantee US military presence in the South China Sea with shore-based radar and other surveillance facilities monitoring the Chinese navy.
As facing maritime blockade and containment of the United States and its allies in East and South China Sea, China may expand its maritime power into the Indian Ocean to break through the surrounding limitations. The Indian Ocean has become the world’s busiest maritime traffic arteries, a quarter of the world’s goods are shipped through it. With geographically critical ports, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka become “fulcrum” countries for China to enter the Indian Ocean. China is actively building its land bridge connected with the Indian Ocean which will fundamentally change China’s strategic environment.
'Sino-US wrestle' in Myanmar:
In 2013, China initiated the “One Belt, One Road” project, which refers to the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road", aimed at promoting commercial prosperity in countries along the ancient land and maritime “silk road” and contributing its industrial capacity to infrastructure construction in those countries. From China’s perspective, the stability of its neighboring countries becomes the major prerequisite for the project’s success, while the US hopes to destabilize those countries to undermine China’s economic strategy. The recent developments in the Myanmar conflicts mark US’s new approach to containing China.
Myanmar, located Northeast to Andaman sea of Indian Ocean, has borders with India, Bangladesh, and China in the north, with Thailand and Laos in the south. On one hand, it is the gateway connected Southeast Asia to South Asia and the Middle East, on the other hand, it is also China’s land bridge to the Indian Ocean. As important neighbors, Myanmar and China’s cooperation hold increasingly strategic meanings, including cooperation in port construction and oil pipelines. Therefore, Myanmar becomes the target of US-plotted “color revolution” which intends to make regime change happen in pro-China Myanmar government.
Considering the good relations between the governments of China and Myanmar, the US’s efforts have long been promoting pro-western Aung San Suu Kyi to take power in the elections, which was illustrated in US president Barack Obama’s private meeting with Aung San in his last visit to Myanmar. However, the current government of Myanmar declined Aung San’s presidential candidacy out of constitutional constraints, making her winning the election nearly impossible. Thus, the United States began to provoke Myanmar’s civil war.
In Myanmar’s roughly 60 million population, the majority ethnic Burmese accounts for two-third, the rest includes more than 200 ethnic minorities, among them Shan, Karen, Kachin, Mon, Wa are relatively large groups. There are 25 branches of ethnic armed groups mainly carrying out anti-government activities in Northern Myanmar. In fact, in order to increase Aung San’s political weight, the United States has been trying to persuade the Kachin independence army to support her militarily. In April 2014, the deputy commander of Kachin independence army Sumlut Gun Maw visited the United States for a period of 11 days, discussed America’s military support for his army with several American officials. China fears that US’s manipulation of armed rebellions would lead to large-scale nationwide civil war in Myanmar, which will jeopardize economic development in neighboring regions. China’s efforts to pursue negotiation between Myanmar conflict parties have been made, but the results still remain to be seen.
Hong Kong: a card from inside
Apart from the subtle containments surrounding China in the process, US also tries to make trouble within China's territory. In September 2014, Hongkong witnessed a 70-days long protest named “Occupy Central”, which calls for political reform in Hong Kong's government, it caused disturbing turmoil in this city. Many information indicates that the US played an invisible hand in instigating this movement.
Like other regime change activities promoted secretly by the United States, many “Occupy Central” organizers and participants are closely related to US institutions. In his article titled “Entire ‘Occupy Central’ Protest Scripted in Washington”, Tony Cartalucci, an American geopolitical researcher and author of the "land destroyer" website, elaborately revealed US’s funding behind Hong Kong’s protest movement. As he pointed out, the protest itself was prearranged at least as early as April 2014, revealed by “Occupy Central” co-organizers Martin Lee and Anson Chan before National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in Washington DC.
Lee, as well as members of the NED audience, repeatedly stated that Hong Kong’s role was to “infect” mainland China with its Western-style institutions, laws, and interests. Lee also repeatedly appealed to Washington specifically to ensure they remained committed to defending American interests in Hong Kong. Obviously “Occupy Central’s” true agenda is not about having Hong Kong vote for who they desire to see in power, it is about getting the foreign-backed political cabal behind “Occupy Central” into power, and disarming Beijing of any means to prevent what is for all intents and purposes the “soft” re-colonization of Hong Kong, and a further attempt to divide and destabilize China as a whole.
Hong Kong, in its essence, is a city of law and business, rather than a political city. Although many people participated in political activities to express their dissatisfaction, protesters’ flagrant violation of the law and disturbance of public order has harmed Hong Kong citizens’ daily business and lives. When citizens realized the destructive effects of protests on the economy, “Occupy Central” movement felt the pressure of public opinion and announced its failure eventually.
How did China react?
Since the United States has posed a new encirclement strategy toward China mainly in East Asia, the latter may have to expand its relations westward, including Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, South Asia and other regions to equalize its pressure in the East. Currently, the critical parts of China’s westward strategy have all been set up, namely “Silk Road economic belt”, Sino-Pakistan economic Corridor, and BCIM economic Corridor.
At the same time, China has consolidated its relations with Russia, their cooperation is carried out in three dimensions: First, they have built constructive coordination in the United Nations, the World Bank and other international institutions. Second, they have taken care of each other’s major concern in regional affairs, and jointly safeguard security and stability in their neighboring countries. Third, They have enhanced energy and military trade meeting both sides’ strategic priorities.
