Satellites have become crucial tools in the fields of communication, surveillance, and national security. With the continuous advancements in space technology, the major geopolitical shifts currently unfolding across the world, and the ongoing rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China, the issue of weaponizing satellites has forcefully resurfaced. It brings with it a number of threats including attacking other satellites, interfering with communications, and even conducting military operations from outer space.
Growing Concerns
Recent developments have revealed several indicators of escalating threats and risks associated with the return of satellite weaponization. The most notable indicators can be outlined as follows:
1. On July 22, 2024, information surfaced indicating that the U.S. Space Force, which is the space service branch of the United States Armed Forces, is preparing to deploy a new ground-based jamming system designed to disrupt enemy satellite communications during conflicts. This system is known as the "Remote Modular Terminals" (RMT). The device is specifically designed to prevent Chinese or Russian satellites from transmitting information about U.S. forces during conflicts. The first batch of the RMT-jamming devices is set to be installed later this year following several successful tests. For security reasons, 11 out of the 24 jamming devices will be deployed at undisclosed locations by December 31, 2024.
2. Also in July 2024, during discussions at the annual Aspen Security Forum, U.S. military and intelligence officials expressed growing concerns regarding Russia and China's actions in space. They pointed out that both countries are nearing the deployment of space weapons that could significantly impact U.S. national security.
3. During the NATO summit in Washington, held in July 2024, alliance leaders emphasized that space assets are increasingly at risk, particularly with the growing threats from so-called "gray zone" operations in space. These operations may include jamming or spoofing satellites, non-kinetic attacks on space assets, cyber operations, unauthorized proximity and rendez-vous maneuvers, and satellite stalking.
4. On June 26, 2024, two U.S. space agencies reported that a dead Russian satellite broke apart in orbit into more than 100 shards, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to take shelter in their spacecraft.
5. On May 22, 2024, ABC News quoted U.S. Department of Defense Press Secretary, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, as saying: "Russia launched a satellite into low Earth orbit, and we believe it is likely a counter-space weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit.”
6. On May 20, 2024, the United Nations Security Council failed for the second time in less than two weeks to adopt a groundbreaking resolution aimed at preventing an arms race in space. The council once again could not pass a resolution on outer space following Russia's veto against a similar text on April 24, 2024.
7. In February 2024, Mike Turner, Chairman of the U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, announced that Russia is developing a satellite with anti-satellite capabilities based on nuclear weapons. This announcement is linked to the launch of Russia's satellite Cosmos 2553, which was launched in February 2022 into an unusual orbit at the outer edge of low Earth orbit, above other satellite systems. Some reports suggest that Cosmos 2553 was either designed for ground-target reconnaissance or that Russia was conducting long-term experiments on ambient radiation exposure to develop a future nuclear anti-satellite weapon.
8. In its annual report, "Space Threat Assessment 2024," released in April 2024, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted several international shifts concerning the global competition in developing space capabilities, as follows:
A. China: Over the past decade, China has solidified its position as a space power. Beijing relies on a growing array of space and anti-space capabilities to support national objectives, including using space as an extension of its Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen economic and diplomatic ties with other countries. Diplomatically, China is working with Russia to establish an international alliance focused on lunar missions, directly competing with the U.S.-led Artemis program. Additionally, China is seeking strategic space cooperation with African, South American, and Asian countries. In 2023, China conducted 67 space launches, successfully placing over 200 satellites into orbit, with only one launch failure.
B. Russia: In 2023, Russia experienced both successes and setbacks in space. A Russian attempt to land on the Moon failed in August 2023, but Russia successfully launched several civilian and military satellites. Additionally, despite U.S. and European sanctions, Russia gained new foreign clients who are interested in launching satellites, such as Malaysia. There are also reports that Russia is developing an anti-satellite weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads, which the United States claims would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.
C. India: India continues to expand its space activities, achieving a historic milestone in 2023 with the successful landing of its robotic spacecraft, Chandrayaan-3, on the Moon in August. While India lags significantly behind the United States and China in the number of rockets launched in 2023, it launched more rockets than Europe and Japan combined (Figure 1). The country also signed the U.S.-led Artemis Accords in June 2023 and partnered with Japan on another lunar mission. Additionally, India is increasingly focusing on using its growing space capabilities for military purposes.
D. Iran: Iran continues to advance its space capabilities and has achieved notable space milestones over the past year. Despite previous setbacks with the Simorgh rocket, Tehran recently conducted two successful space launches in January 2024—one with the Simorgh rocket and the other with a Qaem 100 rocket—which placed four separate satellites into orbit. In September 2023, Iran launched its third military satellite, Noor 3, which is believed to be an Earth observation satellite, similar to its two earlier Noor satellites. Additionally, in early December 2023, Iran launched a biological capsule, which may be part of Tehran's ambitions to develop indigenous crewed spaceflight capabilities.
E. North Korea: In 2023, North Korea achieved its first successful space launch since 2016, with the deployment of the military reconnaissance satellite Malligyong 1. Pyongyang also completed significant upgrades to the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. Additionally, North Korea has strengthened its cooperation with Russia in various fields, including space technology.
A Complex Context
These threats and risks arise within a politically and technologically intricate context, where the resurgence of satellite weaponization is linked to the following factors:
1. Increasing Dependence on Satellites
Nations are increasingly reliant on satellites for communication, surveillance, and military intelligence, making them potential targets for space threats and a stage for military conflicts.
2. Escalation of Military Space Activities
Major powers and some emerging forces are intensifying their activities in the domain of military space, including the development and testing of space systems and weapons, making space a domain of competition and conflict. Political complexities and lack of oversight in some space regions may lead to increased threats of space attacks and unwanted interference.
3. Advancements in Space Technology
The development of satellite and space rocket technology increases the likelihood of advancing capabilities to conduct sophisticated military operations in space, such as destroying or jamming vital communications satellites of rival parties.
4. Geopolitical Rivalry Among Major Powers
Current global geopolitical conflicts are driving major and emerging powers to develop their military space capabilities as part of their military and security strategies. This is particularly relevant in light of deteriorating relations between nations, the breakdown of global arms control and disarmament structures, and ongoing regional conflicts.
Potential Threats
The potential threats of space militarization encompass various types of military risks, as well as the dangers of satellite crashes or collisions. In this context, several general characteristics of these potential risks can be highlighted as follows:
1. Increasing Direct Military Threats against Satellites
A pattern may emerge that normalizes deviations (the acceptance of unsafe practices that, while not immediately catastrophic, could lead to disasters over time) in some newly developed anti-space activities. This is especially concerning with the rising fears of the potential development of orbital anti-satellite technologies and weapons, along with the possibility of nuclear anti-satellite capabilities. Such developments could involve the risks of space collisions and unauthorized access to sensitive space technology, further complicating the global security landscape.
2. Concerns Over Increasing Military Cyberattacks
There is growing anxiety about the rise in military cyberattacks targeting satellite infrastructure and networks, as well as the development of electronic attacks, jamming, spoofing, and hazardous behaviors in space. There are also increasing risks of developing capabilities that enable control and command over rival nations' satellites. Additionally, there are concerns about the development of space-based jamming systems that could interfere with, and spoof the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) as defensive measures against missile and air strikes.
Estimates suggest that the risk of escalation and global competition in outer space could create a highly alarming situation, given the potential for nuclear weapon use. It is likely that conflicts in the space domain could involve the following scenarios:
A. Conflict in which strategically valuable space systems become targets of attack or are perceived as being under imminent threat.
B. Conflict where space systems are used (or are perceived as being used imminently) offensively, including in ways that enable the launch of conventional attacks.
C. Conflict where activities or confrontations in space spill over into other domains, such as an anti-satellite test (conducting counter-space tests) leading to a conventional military response.
D. Conflict in which parties involved in an existing conflict expand the battlefield to conduct attacks against space systems.
Risk Assessment
The escalating threats arising from the re-militarization of satellites are serious, especially given that many countries now possess the capabilities to carry out various anti-satellite attacks. Current geopolitical shifts increase the risks of this escalation as each nation seeks to demonstrate its deterrence capabilities and showcase its technical and military power, while also aiming to drain the resources of competing parties. Because satellite threats do not directly harm human lives as traditional wars do, conducting targeted operations could result in the disruption of operational systems or damage a country's intelligence capabilities, thus limiting the moral responsibility involved.
In this context, the following points can be highlighted:
1. The intensity of ideological, political, and doctrinal conflicts and competition among many global powers may exacerbate these risks. Populist elites, such as the far-right in Europe for instance, who seek to impose their agendas and assert their capabilities, are highly inclined to engage in new forms of conflict.
2. Nevertheless, it can be argued that political and military prudence could play a crucial role in mitigating these risks and threats that could harm international peace and security. It is likely that global powers and international institutions will play a role in achieving a consensus to reduce the level of threat and establish an international and regional framework to prevent such conflicts. This could contribute to postponing such confrontations, similar to the case of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
3. In this context, it should be noted that, to date, indications of the resurgence of satellite militarization are primarily linked to political and military competition among major powers. Therefore, statements regarding deterrence in this regard do not necessarily imply full capability or political opportunity to surpass the level of deterrence.
It can be concluded that the risks of the resurgence of satellite militarization today differ fundamentally from the competition over space technology that broke out during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. The current escalation is more dangerous as it occurs in a new global context that is shifting towards multipolarity. Consequently, many countries (often involved in regional conflicts) now possess space capabilities, including China, Russia, the United States, Iran, North Korea, European nations, and Israel. Additionally, the current escalation involves advanced and highly precise technologies, unlike the initial capabilities seen during the Cold War. It is likely to become increasingly difficult to openly detect and track many space threats, as they move into the shadows, whether in cyberspace or in space systems that conceal their destructive capabilities behind other purposes.
