With the fall of Kabul to the Taliban’s military blitzkrieg, many questions arise regarding the international legitimacy of the Taliban. While most nations will think twice about engaging with the militant group due to its reputation of brutally killing its opponents and suppressing women and other minorities, some such as China have already announced their plans to work with the Taliban.
Historical ties, present stances
China’s interests in Afghanistan have been largely geo-strategic. Despite that formal relations between both nations became prominent after the 2001, when China opened up relations with the Hamid Karzai government, it was actually involved in Afghanistan’s domestic issues earlier on. This was due to Chinese fears of a ramped up Soviet Union military presence in Afghanistan. This led to China providing arms and resources to the Mujahideen in a covert fashion, a fact that allowed the nation to establish deep ties with the Taliban till it cut off contacts after 2001.
Over the last 20 years, China has adopted a wait and watch method while dealing with Afghanistan. As scholars have noted, none of the Chinese projects materialized, as Beijing is awaiting the aftermath of the US withdrawal to engage with the victorious group (being the Taliban in this case). However, the biggest concern for China in Afghanistan is the presence of various Uighur militants and groups such as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) who can threaten the security of the Xinjiang region, a long-embittered region.
Chinese embrace of the Taliban
Recent press releases regarding the foreign policy and relations of the Taliban were peppered with China playing host to the Taliban towards the end of July 2021. Among the discussions that took place was the Taliban’s role in Afghanistan (this was prior to the Taliban takeover of Kabul), while on the other hand, China was seeking re-assurances that its interests and citizens would not be harmed in the region, and that the group would not support Uighur militants.
A day after the Taliban took over, China sent out official statements noting that it would respect the will of the Afghans and embrace the Taliban. This falls in line with the Chinese foreign policy of not interfering in the domestic issues of other nations to maintain its business. Beijing recognizes that the Taliban will continue to govern the country and with no regards for any internal abuses, it will find it easy to engage with the group as long as its business and security interests are secured.
Thus, in many ways, a Chinese embrace of the Taliban has been encouraged to stick to the Chinese line of non-interference and to likely encourage further economic ties in the region. The fact that Afghanistan is one of the potential nodes of connectivity to various nations in Central Asia as part of China’s Belt and Road initiative makes it a key asset for China. This has also been reflected in Chinese statements noting that China would likely engage in post war reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. It is also quite likely that China would try to resume its paused operations and deals in Afghanistan using the help of the Taliban’s authority in the country. This illustrates the various benefits that China is expecting to reap from its pragmatic approach to dealing with the Taliban.
Counter-terrorism efforts
As pragmatic as these plans seem on Beijing’s side, several factors threaten Chinese interests in South Asia. For instance, the Taliban has always provided safe haven to various non-state terrorist actors including groups like al-Qaeda among others. Most troublingly for China, a recent attack on several Chinese engineers in Pakistan in July 2021, which was allegedly conducted by the Pakistani Taliban was highlighted by China as a grave challenge and reason for increased counter terrorism.
Indeed, the Pakistani Taliban have had China in its cross hairs for over a decade after it was unearthed that China was involved in pressuring Pakistan into conducting military action against Pakistani extremists who had taken over a mosque in 2007. The group also known as Tehreek e-Taliban also killed Chinese individuals in 2011 for China’s role in suppressing Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang.
This issue of China’s role in Xinjiang was also taken up by Uighur Muslims fighting with the ETIM and TIP. They were responsible for threatening the 2008 Beijing Olympics as well as many other threats against China for its treatment of Uighurs. Since the 2010’s, the group was subsumed into al-Qaeda’s umbrella of Jihadist allies and affiliates. Al-Qaeda has been quite persistent with its messaging regarding China and has taken up the cause by releasing various videos. In the backdrop of a strengthened Taliban, it is quite likely that these groups will be able to strengthen themselves and gain further resources to attack Chinese citizens in Afghanistan or Pakistan.
Even with China taking assurances from the Taliban regarding launching attacks against its interests, it cannot afford to let its guard down in the region. This is because the Taliban’s promises cannot be taken at face value when it comes to preventing terrorist groups from operating in its territory.
After the US withdrawal, multiple news agencies reported = different instances where al-Qaeda leaders have been found on Taliban territory. In July 2021, a Taliban spokesperson even claimed that the negotiations with the US didn’t entail hosting any terrorist groups, but rather preventing them from launching any attacks on US interests. It is clear therefore, that the Taliban will eventually turn a blind eye to groups opposed to nations considered to be oppressing Muslims such as China. Given the fact that the Taliban has even had a history of commenting and threatening revenge against China for its actions in Xinjiang, this seems all the more likely.
China’s options
China has a few options for its approach in dealing with the Taliban. For one, it has to ensure that it does not rely on just the Taliban’s assurances to prevent attacks by any militant group against its security and economic interests. To this end, it would have to ramp up its own security in sites where its citizens work to protect their lives and other economic projects.
Moreover, it should also work closely with Pakistan and its security agencies to continue to curb any threat. At the same time, China could consider working with nations it would not normally work with to counter-terrorism such as the United States and India, both of which are equally wary of terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yet, this may seem challenging for China given its antagonism towards both nations. however, China cannot hope to attain a complete semblance of normalcy and peace without such linkages.
In conclusion, China has multiple geo-strategic interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, whereby it has begun multiple projects in pursuance of these interests. Such projects while creating immense economic value for the nation, it exposes China to various security threats. These arise from China’s activities in the Xinjiang province where it has suppressed the Muslim population. As such, China has faced threats from the Taliban as well as other nationalist groups such as the Tehreek e-Taliban as well as groups such as the ETIM, the TIP and even al-Qaeda. Given all these factors, China cannot afford to be complacent in its dealings with the Taliban even as it cultivates its own benefits from these dealings.
