South Africa's seventh general elections, set to take place on May 29, 2024, mark a significant phase in the country's political history, given its particularities. The competition between the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and opposition parties has peaked, indicating the potential for more significant changes than usual in the upcoming elections. During these elections, members of the National Assembly (lower house) will be selected, alongside members of provincial legislatures and municipal councils. Following the general election, the country's president will be indirectly elected by members of the National Assembly.
This assessment seeks to give an overview of the prominent competing political parties and their electoral weight and address the internal crises within the ruling party and their impact on its political future. Furthermore, the assessment sheds light on the significant challenges facing South Africa and the extent to which they will influence the outcomes of the upcoming general elections.
Contending Parties
The general elections in South Africa will be held amid numerous crises, which will negatively impact the ruling party's approval ratings. Although the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been in power since the end of apartheid in 1994, it is set to face significant competition from an increased number of participants in the upcoming electoral race compared to previous elections.
In this regard, the assessment identifies the influential parties with substantial political weight and influential voter bases as follows:
1. The African National Congress (ANC):
One of South Africa's most powerful political parties, the ANC, has been in power since 1994, following the end of apartheid when Nelson Mandela assumed the presidency in the country's first-ever democratic elections. If the ANC wins the upcoming elections, it will have been in power for 30 years. Throughout three decades, the ANC's electoral strategy has focused on securing an absolute majority of votes and avoiding alliances, enabling it to form the government independently.
Despite support from the South African Communist Party and labor unions, the ANC remains committed to avoiding coalitions, as its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has affirmed.
However, despite the ANC's historical absolute majority, there has been an apparent decline in the number of seats it has won since the 2009 elections. In the 2019 elections, the party obtained 57.7% of the total seats, the lowest in its history. The number is expected to decrease further in the upcoming elections. The decline threatens the party's future due to unresolved issues such as unemployment, poverty, low living standards, high corruption rates, internal problems, and disunity. Other significant challenges and chronic problems include the internal problems and the state of fragmentation that the ANC has suffered from for over a decade, as well as many international developments with domestic impacts, such as the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic and the rapid wave of coups that has swept through the majority of African countries.
2. Democratic Alliance (DA):
The DA is one of the ruling party's strongest rivals and is led by John Steenhuisen. Opinion polls show the party drawing between a quarter and a third of the electorate in the upcoming elections, largely on a good governance and anti-corruption platform. Since the 2019 elections, the DA has secured 84 seats out of 400 in the National Assembly. In preparation for the elections scheduled for May 29, 2024, the party has formed a coalition with six opposition parties, enhancing its chances of success.
3. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF):
The EFF is the third-largest opposition party in terms of political influence, led by former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema. The party adopts a leftist anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist rhetoric, focusing on populist policies such as state-provided housing, nationalizing mines and other state economic sectors, and redistributing land. During the previous elections, the EFF made gains, increasing its representation in the National Assembly from 6% in the 2014 elections to over 10% in 2019. The current economic conditions allow the party to advance with a radically different approach from the ANC's, thus strengthening its popular base.
4. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP):
The fourth-largest opposition party relies heavily on the Zulu community as its voter base. The right-wing party adopts conservative economic and social policies. However, its representation in the National Assembly has always fluctuated. In the first elections held in 1994, it won 40 seats, but its representation has declined since then, reaching ten seats in the 2014 elections and 14 seats in the latest elections in 2019.
5. Freedom Front Plus:
The Freedom Front Plus is one of the prominent opposition parties with a conservative right-wing orientation, relying on the white minority as its voter base. The IFP and the Freedom Front Plus are considered less competitive in the upcoming elections due to their right-wing leanings and conservative economic and social approaches, which do not align with the country's current challenges and changes. In contrast, the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters are considered the main competitors to the ANC.
Allowing Independents to Run for Elections
South Africa's upcoming elections come amid significant changes, the most significant being President Cyril Ramaphosa's signing of a law allowing independent candidates to participate in the general elections. The new law follows a Constitutional Court ruling declaring the illegality of barring independent candidates from contesting elections without party membership. Although the recent amendments allow for the expansion of political participation, they were criticized for creating an unequal competition between independent candidates and political parties. Independents will compete for 200 seats, while parties will compete for 400 seats in the National Assembly.
The entry of independents into the election arena is likely to disrupt the calculations of the ruling party and opposition parties. Some parties may decline in popularity because of corruption charges and major crises that have increased public dissatisfaction.
Crises of the ANC
The most prominent implications of the ANC's political imbalance, which has directly affected its voter base, can be clarified as follows:
1. Decline in popular support:
Popular support for the ruling ANC Party has declined in recent years despite its success in winning six consecutive general elections since 1994. This was evident in the local elections held in 2021, when the party received less than 50% of the vote (approximately 46%) nationally, compared to the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, which received 21.8% of the total votes, while the Fighters for Economic Freedom received 10.4%. The voter turnout was also less than 50%, with 12 million voters out of 26 million, a 10% decrease compared to the local elections held in 2016. Popular support for the ANC will likely continue declining in the upcoming elections.
A poll of voters conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group showed the ANC's popularity declining from 52% to 39%, suggesting the possibility of forming a coalition government after the next general elections. The poll also showed an increase in the Democratic Alliance's voting percentage from 23% to 27%, suggesting the possibility of forming a right-wing and centrist alliance led by the Democratic Alliance.
2. Internal divisions:
These divisions have manifested over many issues, most notably the escalating disagreement over the "step-aside" rule adopted by the ANC's National Executive Committee in 2020. The rule requires members facing corruption charges to step aside or suspend their roles within the party until the lawsuits filed against them are resolved. For example, the party's former secretary-general, Ace Magashule, was forced to step aside in May 2021 after being implicated in a corruption case during his tenure as the Premier of the Free State. There was significant opposition within the party to this rule, accusing President Ramaphosa of using it to sideline his opponents within the party.
On the other hand, divisions emerged regarding the nomination of the party's leader during the party's fifth conference held in July 2022 in preparation for the May 2024 elections. The votes were split between supporters of President Ramaphosa and those supporting Jacob Zuma. At that time, Ramaphosa faced significant opposition from Zuma's supporters amid a rising wave of anger against Ramaphosa over deteriorating conditions and accusations of financial corruption in February 2022. This might negatively affect his chances of re-election. However, Ramaphosa managed to garner sufficient support when the majority of party regions held conferences to elect new senior officials to ensure their loyalty and support for President Ramaphosa. Despite Ramaphosa's ability to overcome this dilemma, current indicators and the country's profound challenges and crises threaten his popularity and ability to secure an absolute majority in the upcoming election race.
3. Changes to the ANC's foreign policy:
In recent years, the ANC has adopted a selective foreign policy, leading to the loss of its traditional Western allies in favor of Russia and China. This could influence the upcoming elections, as the West will likely fully support opposition parties. A survey conducted on 1500 citizens showed that 43% believe South Africa's interests are linked to its alignment with Western countries, meaning that the ANC's decision to shift towards BRICS countries might cost it a large number of votes.
Expected scenarios
The coming period is set to become unique in the political history of South Africa and to pose a threat to the future of the ruling ANC, while the influence of opposition parties is expected to grow, driven by their recent efforts to strengthen their power through coalitions. These coalitions might reduce the parliamentary majority of the ANC Party. Hence, the potential outcomes of the upcoming general elections can be anticipated through several scenarios:
First scenario: Absolute majority for the ruling party:
This scenario assumes a restructuring of the ruling party's policies, moving towards regaining its popularity and working on unifying its internal front while sidelining disputes until it secures its victory in the coming elections. However, this scenario remains least likely to play out due to many structural problems facing the party's internal structure, caused by division among its members and its transformation into conflicting factions. Moreover, after the crisis over former president Jacob Zuma's trial on corruption charges, many opinion polls showed that the party lost over 60% of its mass base. On the other hand, a close at the election results of the party since 2019 shows an evident decline in its voting percentage. Moreover, rampant corruption, the persistent energy crisis, and the ruling party's failure to provide fundamental solutions to crises have led to a lack of confidence in its ability to achieve stability and meet the needs of citizens.
Second scenario: Absolute majority for the Democratic Alliance:
Indications suggest that the Democratic Alliance is dominating the political scene and has the potential to attract popular support, thanks in particular to its adoption of a populist discourse focusing on the primary needs of citizens. Many opinion polls have shown significant societal acceptance of the alliance. On the other hand, the alliance sought to enhance its mass base through alliances with six other opposition parties after years of failed coalition attempts and the weakness of its constituent parties. This enhances its electoral prospects and makes this one of the highly possible scenarios.
Third scenario: Formation of a coalition government
This scenario assumes that no party can achieve an absolute majority, pushing them towards forming a coalition government. In November 2023, a poll conducted by the Johannesburg-based Rivonia Circle Foundation showed the inability of any of the parties to obtain an absolute majority and their lack of significant popularity among voters. The poll also showed that the ANC's popular support fell from 57% in the 2019 elections to 41% in the upcoming elections. Accordingly, the formation of a coalition government is the most likely scenario.
In conclusion, the general elections in South Africa, scheduled at the end of May 2024, will be the most controversial date. For the first time, the electoral scene became unusual due to the decline in the popularity of the ANC, which has retained an absolute majority and the right to name the country's president since the end of apartheid. This is attributed to the internal rifts within the party and the crises and challenges that the ruling party has failed to address, which impacted its legitimacy and popularity.
On the other hand, the upcoming elections represent an opportunity for opposition parties, which should be optimally used through solid alliances, flexible electoral programs, and plans to respond to the country's crises. This might enable them to oust the ruling party after three decades of holding power.
