ISIS appears to be continuing to make efforts to expand and create new terrorist hotbeds in new areas. These efforts are reflected by its prominent presence in Russia’s North Caucasus Republic of Dagestan. The organization claimed responsibility for a February 18, 2018 shooting attack that left five people dead and five others wounded in Kizlyar. The development raised questions about the goals of the organization’s increased activity in Dagestan and the potential repercussions that this can impose in the coming period.
Marked Interest
ISIS has become focused on targeting the Caucasus and Dagestan in particular where this was evidenced by a series of terrorist attacks in the past two years. This cannot be considered separately from overall developments that occurred in the same period on the Syrian and Iraqi arenas, in particular those involving Russia’s escalated involvement in the conflict in Syria which began in September 2015. That is, Russia became a key player backing the regime in Syria against armed organizations and opposition forces.
Russian assessments indicate that terror organizations and ISIS in particular, that operate outside Russia, were able to recruit no small number of Dagestani citizens in their ranks. According to Dagestani interior minister Abdurashid Magomedov, the number is likely to have grown to 1200. This is considered by several views as a result of movement of some elements, who had participated in the war in Chechnya, to Dagestan after the war ended, to affect the latter’s security and stability. Additionally, it triggered more warnings of potentially more powerful wave of terrorist attacks in the coming period, in Dagestan or the majority of countries in the region.
Different Goals
The growing interest of ISIS and other terror organizations in expanding their influence in the Caucasus and Dagestan in particular, can be explained by several factors of which the following stand out:
1- Multiple options. The organization seeks to expand its current room for maneuver through relying on extraterritorial affiliate groups that proclaimed allegiance to it, in countries such as the Philippines, Somalia, the Sahel and Sahara region in Africa, as well as Dagestan. Top leaders of the organization have the view that this can help target the interests of more than one of the countries that are involved in the war on it in the Middle East.
2- Recruiting more elements. Over the past two years, ISIS showed a keen interest in recruiting new elements hailing from the countries and regions where it operate. This was driven by its inability to recruit new elements to move them to Syria or Iraq, after it came under strong pressures. Indications of this approach surfaced when Russia’s Federal Security Service announced on March 14 that it dismantled a 60-strong terrorist cell that was recruiting local elements for the organization to send them to Syria and Iraq to take part in its armed confrontations.
3- Revitalizing the role of Caucasus Emirate. The creation of the new group in Russia’s North Caucasus was announced by ISIS on 23 June 2015. The bid aims to expand the influence of the group inside the mother organization in the coming period through using newly-recruited terrorist elements that possess no easy military and technological capabilities. Additionally, this is not separate from ISIS’ great interest in releasing some of its propaganda material in Russian since its influence started to increase in mid-2014, with the aim of consolidating its influence in this region.
Potential Implications
ISIS’ attempts to strengthen its influence in Dagestan may impose implications that can be outlined as follows:
1- Expanding scope of internal attacks. Conventional terrorist attacks, especially those targeting civilians and police and army forces, constitute one of the mechanisms of ISIS’ extraterritorial activity, especially in areas that are not under its control. This pushes it to rely on surprise attacks to prove its ability to strengthen its influence and counter pressures it came under. This gave rise to the view that Dagestan is likely to witness more attacks by ISIS which is likely to rely on the so-called “lone-wolf” tactics.
2- Threatening Russian interests. This became a special point of interest for ISIS, not only because of the prominent role that Moscow has been playing on the Syrian arena since its military intervention, but also because what several views call “accumulations” from the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
No doubt, heavy defeats suffered by ISIS in Syria and Iraq do prompt some of its elements to plan to return to their home countries. This prompted Russian officials to warn of potential implications. On December 12, 2017, the head of Russia's internal intelligence Alexander Bortnikov, stated that the return of the organization’s elements to Russian territory constitutes a real danger. He further said an ISIS cell of elements from Central Asia was planning to carry out terrorist attacks on New Year's Eve and the campaign of presidential elections held on March 18, 2018.
3- New groups joining ISIS. ISIS’ surging activities in these areas may encourage some other terrorist groups to announce that they will join the organization. Such move may be welcome by ISIS, which recruited terrorist elements with human and military capabilities that it can use to recruit these groups and persuade them to conduct terrorist operations on its behalf.
In conclusion, it can possibly be argued that, overall, these potentialities are likely to push Russia to escalate security coordination with Caucasus and Central Asia states. The aims is to prepare for any implications that the declining role of terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq may impose on its own security and interests in the coming period.
