The United States shows a special interest in the war against ISIS-Khorasan, the terror group's Afghanistan affiliate, due to its threats to the security stability in the country. The threat prompted the U.S. to launch several strikes against the group’s positions and leaders. Earlier, in April 2017, the US military dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb, nicknamed MOAB, on ISIS-K’s stronghold in Nangarhar province on the border with Pakistan. U.S launched an air strike on July 11 and killed ISIS- khorossan's new leader Abu Sayed. Abu Sayed’s death marks the third time an ISIS-K leader has been killed within a year. Hafiz Sayed Khan was killed in July 2016 and Abdul Hasib was killed during a raid in April in the same year.
These efforts appear to be imposing several consequences on the organization’s cohesion and its ability to continue to pursue strengthening its influence within Afghanistan.
Significant Timing
The United States’ targeting of the leader of ISIS-K comes within the context of Washington’s efforts to eliminate the terror group in Afghanistan. The U.S. is also continuing its war against it in Syria and Iraq, where the group suffered a resounding defeat in Mosul, liberated on July 10, while involved anti-ISIS forces are preparing for storming into its main stronghold in Raqqa.
This US policy was reflected by statements made in June by Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. He pledged to drive ISIS out of Afghanistan by the end of 2017. The pledge reflects that Washington attaches great importance to this issue in particular.
Without a doubt, United States’ interest in eliminating ISIS in Afghanistan cannot be detached from a group of main variables. Firstly, increasing warnings that ISIS could be working on expanding within Afghanistan after it took control of a number of areas and imposed its own strict laws. The organization promoted the laws in a February 22, 2017 issue of its magazine “Life Under Sharia Law”. According to several views, this indicates efforts by the group to prepare for moving a number of its elements from areas it lost in Syria and Iraq into Afghanistan.
Secondly, ISIS-K seeks to escalate its attacks within Afghanistan as part of its ongoing conflict with Taliban. Within this context, ISIS-K carried out an attack on a military hospital in Kabul in March 2017 killing about 60 people. Another such attack was carried out near the US Embassy in May 2017 against a convoy of armored vehicles used in NATO-led Operation Resolute Support in Afghanistan.
Several views indicate that this will impose direct threats to stability in Afghanistan, in particular because ISIS seeks to reduce Taliban’s influence. These views associate the organization’s escalation and Taliban’s announcement of what it called the “spring offensive” targeting the Afghan army and police starting in April.
Within this context, a report issued by the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction in May 2017 noted that Afghanistan is going through a bloody year and described the casualties among soldiers in confrontations with Taliban and other organizations as shockingly high.
Thirdly, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of Hezb-i- Islami and former Afghanistan’s prime minister, returned to Kabul in April 2017 after signing a US-sponsored September 2016 peace deal with the Afghan government, to join the political process. He even urged Taliban to lay down arms. His call was rejected by ISIS on the grounds that it may represent the onset of escalation aimed at easing off pressure being put on him by some parties involved in the conflict in Afghanistan.
Potential Consequences
The killing of ISIS-K’ third leader may impose the following potential consequences on the organization in the coming period.
1- Geographical spread reduced. The US successive military strikes aim to reduce the organization’s ability to expand its activity and influence within Afghanistan. This was reflected in a statement issued by the Pentagon on July 14, 2017. It said the strike also killed other ISIS-K members and “will significantly disrupt the terror group’s plans to expand its presence in Afghanistan” as part of the US’ recognition of the organization’s goals that were declared by Abu Omar al-Khorasani, one of its key commanders, after its militants captured Tora Bora, a mountainous area along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan. Abu Omar said, “We are in Tora Bora but this is not the end. The plan is to take more territory from the government and Taliban."
2- Leadership crisis. Due to the recent US strikes against ISIS-K leadership, and despite the fact that the organization was able to contain potential crises that would have been caused by the death of these leaders, success does not appear to be an ever present possibility. That is because internal conflicts over the organization’s leadership can occur in the coming period, especially because of ISIS’ defeat in Mosul, as well as the fact that it is coming under mounting pressures in Raqqa. This may produce immediate repercussions that can impact the cohesion of its affiliate in Afghanistan. In particular, the possibility that some ISIS elements may manage to move to its strongholds in Afghanistan can impact its internal balance of power and escalate a power struggle.
Moreover, ISIS-K may seek, in the coming period, to change its approach in dealing with the issue of the operations targeting its leaders. Such change would be made through a blackout on, or restricting the movement of its new leadership. This is reminiscent of measures taken by the Taliban whose former supreme commander and spiritual leader Mullah Mohammed Omar was, to an extent, a mysterious figure.
However, this would draw strong criticism from the organization’s rivals, in particular after it attacked Taliban’s policy because it will not succeed in protecting the leadership but will isolate it.
3- Shrinking capability. Continued strikes against the positions and leaders of ISIS-K impacts the balance of power with other organizations, and can even impede its efforts to recruit more terrorist elements supporting its ideology. This would increase the possibility that its control of some areas would diminish, as was the case in Syria and Iraq.
It can be concluded that repercussions of the developments taking place on the ground in Syria and Iraq will quickly reach Afghanistan, not only because ISIS seeks to expand its influence, but also because the international community is increasingly interested in combating terrorism in Afghanistan.
