The April 7th US missile strike on Shayrat airbase in Syria constitutes the first intentional US strike on Assad regime forces since the Syrian war began in 2011. It was conducted after the US threatened, on April 6, 2017, that it was considering military action against the Syrian regime in retaliation for a chemical weapons massacre in the town of Khan Sheikhun in northern Syria, on April 4, 2017. Such a move by the US signals consequences and messages of crucial significance.
Strategic Importance
The Syrian regime's Shayrat airbase, from which the regime forces had launched the chemical weapons attack on Khan Sheikhoun, has strategic and military importance for the following reasons:
1- Shayrat is the largest airbase in Syria's heartland and houses 25 percent of the regime's air capability, and accommodates Syrian Air Force 50th Air Brigade which contains two squadrons of Su-22s and MIG jet fighters, two 3km-long runways and surface-to-air missile SA-6 SAM missile systems.
2- The airbase includes 40 hangars and hardened shelters for three squadrons of aircraft providing air cover for the regime's armed forces, Iranian forces, the Iran-allied Hezbollah militia and other Shiite armed militia fighting the opposition in the rural areas of Homs, Hama and western Aleppo.
3- The main mission of aircraft stationed in this airbase is to strike ISIS in Palmyra in eastern Homs, and Deir ez-Zour in eastern Syria, as well as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and allied factions in Idlib province in northern Syria.
4- In the vicinity of the airbase, Iran deployed forces from its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-allied militia, as well as groups of militants from Hezbollah deployed between the Qalamoun region between Damascus and Homs.
Military Results
The following are the most important military results of the US missile strike on Shayrat airbase:
1- Hangars, hardened aircraft shelters, petroleum and logistical storage, ammunition supply bunkers, defense systems, and radars were destroyed. Massive destruction was inflicted on the airbase's military infrastructure and equipment.
2- The airbase was almost completely destroyed, which deprive the regime's forces and loyalists involved in battles in the rural areas of Homs, Hama and Idlib from air cover.
Multiple Goals
The US administration of President Donald Trump sought to use the missile strike to send across several messages to several parties involved in the conflict in Syria.
First: Messages to the Regime
1- Make the Assad regime understand that while the US administration's current priority is the war on terrorism and not toppling the Assad regime, the regime's practices that contravene US policies will not be overlooked.
2- Warn Bashar Assad that destructive power can be used again if necessary, and that his regime should understand this very well.
3- Influence the political position of the regime by forcing it to make concessions in the current political process, whether in Astana or Geneva talks.
4- The Assad regime's alliance with Russia and Iran will not deter the United States from taking unilateral action to punish it as long as it is not serious about reaching a political solution to the crisis in Syria.
5- The United States can create safe zones in the area that was targeted, and can impose a no-fly zone in the future.
6- To assure the Syrian regime that its military forces will not be allowed to fill possible vacuum resulting from destroying ISIS.
Second: Messages to the Opposition Forces
1- Try to assimilate the strong resentment of the Syrian opposition, and the armed factions in particular, over the Trump administration's recent announcement that its priority is not to oust the regime in Syria at this stage, and that it is focused on the war on terrorism.
2- Send direct support to Syrian opposition forces through paralyzing Assad regime's air capabilities in Syria's heartland.
3- Join the Syrian opposition in destroying the image of the Assad regime, at the regional and international levels, to render it more illegitimate, especially after Washington's announcement that the prime goal was to respond to the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons.
Third: Messages to Russia
1- To stress that Russia's use of veto at the UN Security Council to protect the Assad regime will not deter the United States from launching strikes against the regime, and that the United States is capable of doing this through a unilateral action.
2- To stress on the need for Russia to review its alliances with Iran and the Assad regime, as well as to make it clear that Washington's priority of keeping its focus on the war on terrorism will not mean that it is leaving the arena in Syria free for Russia and Iran.
3- To put pressure on Russia to force it to change or soften its position on bilateral understandings about the future of Syria.
4- To stress that bilateral military co-ordination between Washington and Moscow will not prevent Washington from taking unilateral action that serves its own interests.
Fourth: Messages to Regional Powers
1- An attempt to restore the nature and scale of relations with Ankara to influence rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. The destruction of the Shayrat airbase in Syria means that military factions allied with Turkey, such as the Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, the Fastaqim Kama Umirta Gathering, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, will be granted wider free movement, and provide a foundation for Turkey's frequent demands for creating safe zones or buffer zones in northern Syria.
2- Respond to positions taken by some regional states that reject the Assad regime and whose role in the Syrian crisis was curtailed recently.
3- The US missile strike sends a clear message to Iran to show the current US administration's modus operandi and its preference of military options.
Fifth: Messages to Americans
1- The main message that the Trump administrations wanted to send to the American people that he wants to stress that its current approach is up to the level of US strategic performance. Most importantly, to absorb the negative aspects of Obama’s administration in the Syrian crisis. This departure from the Obama administration's public stance on Syria was clearly voiced several times by President Trump himself.
2- To stress that United States is restoring its effective presence without waiting for, or relying on, supportive stances from other international powers. To respond to some American political powers' accusation that the Trump administration is not serious, hard-handed or decisive in dealing with Russia.
Limited Military Operation
Apparently, the United States is keen on keeping its latest strike in Syria limited in scope and duration so as to prevent an escalation to direct or wider military involvement, especially because the United States still wants to maintain a minimum level of relations with Russia as well as mutual understandings about developments in Syria.
Perhaps, the fact that the United States notified the Russians that a U.S. airstrike was imminent did not allow the Syrian regime enough time to make adequate preparations. Therefore, the US-Russian military coordination is likely to suffer an evident decline in the coming period and consequently become a topic for their bilateral dialogue.
The destruction of the Shayrat airbase is likely to cause a decline in the Assad regime's ability to fight the opposition’s military factions in Syria's heartland and northern provinces, which can earn the Syrian political opposition more bargaining chips during peace talks in both Astana and Geneva. The strike will also weaken the Assad regime's air capability used in fighting ISIS's concentrated presence in areas surrounding Deir ez-Zour and Palmyra.
So far, Russia's position indicates that it will remain unchanged while keeping the same level of military deployment in Syria. However, this position can possibly evolve to supporting the Assad regime's air defense capabilities in the coming period, especially in light of statements from Moscow, made after US military strike, that it is reinforcing the regime's air defense.
Generally, an escalation of military operations inside Syria is unlikely to happen in the coming period. It is likely, however, that the political process will gain momentum, and that the activity of the military factions in the rural areas around the cities of Homs and Hama, will surge in the short term.
